RolStoppable said:
Dr.Grass said: ''A survey conducted between October 17th and 19th asked 1,083 people about their interest in upcoming consoles. '' COME ON PEOPLE. Small sample space => USELESS statistics This is worth NOTHING. |
1,000 people is usually a big enough sample to arrive close enough to the actual numbers. Increasing the number to 10,000 people wouldn't lead to notably better results.
The bigger problem is to get a sample that is representative of the entire population. If you use the results of this survey (Japan has a population of about 120m people if memory serves me right), you have 12m buying either system for sure, about 42m being on the fence about either system and the rest being not interested at all.
The sample is biased towards gamers though, because 64 % of the people surveyed own at least one of the following systems: PS2, PS3, PSP, Wii, DS. It wasn't a survey solely among gamers as the thread title suggests. I doubt that 64 % of Japanese people own a gaming system, so you are better off by splitting the results at least in half. 6m will buy for sure, 21m on the fence; just sounds more believable. Of course a lot of people who answer "will buy for sure" end up not buying it.
The bottom line is that while this survey is by no means perfect, it's not all bad either. Certainly not as flawed as you suggested.
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I wouldn't be surprised if 64% of Japanese people owned a system. If you add up this generation's consoles you get 55%. Of course some people will own several systems so say 45-50%. Then add PS2 to that and it's pretty likely.
If you go to Japan you'll see that all kinds of people use their DS's and PSP's, from children to old people, going through businessmen.
I agree though that the size of the sample is not a problem as long as it is representative. That's how surveying works, people always complain about sample sizes and don't realise that you don't need a sample of thousands. A scientific sample of this size is enough.
However, it is just loyal, early adopters who are going to be interested in a system before it launches. I'm sure it was similar for PSP, 3DS, etc. If the system gets good support, it is liked by those who buy it, etc., then more people will become interested down the line. It doesn't mean that 6m will buy the Vita, period.
And off-topic, but your avatar makes me think of certain sexual practice, also of Japanese origin, but that's just my dirty mind.