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tiachopvutru on 06 January 2008
ClaudeLv250 said:
I don't know how ioi can stand it. I would have kicked countless asses in this thread by now.

Though I still wonder how diomedes gets ban immunity considering that he does more trolling beyond whining about the numbers. On a daily basis.

 Actually, if he doesn't have as much patience as he has... this site would have been dropped since a long time ago (you know how many people here and out there are ranting right now and even in the past)... 

 In any case, to ioi, I appreciate your good work and your patience. :)



I'm an ALIEN!!!! - officially identified as by Konnichiwa

Of course... My English is still... horrible - appreciation and thanks to FJ-Warez  

Brawl FC: 0301-9911-8154

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zackblue on 06 January 2008
JustinUK said:
Poor Ioi. He's Harassed when the numbers are a few minutes later than usual. Then shouted at when he rushes to put out the numbers and makes some errors due to data anomalies. We recognise the hard work that Ioi puts into the site as well as keeping a full time job.
Maybe move all updates a day later to allow for all the data to come in and be tinkered with properly?

Maybe the people who are complaining can join other tracking websites. A rival website currently has the PS3 & Wii 1.5million & 2.6million lower than VGChartz.

There are no rival sites



 

 2008 end of year predictions:

PS3: 22M

360: 25M

wii: 40M

tiachopvutru on 06 January 2008
zackblue said:
JustinUK said:
Poor Ioi. He's Harassed when the numbers are a few minutes later than usual. Then shouted at when he rushes to put out the numbers and makes some errors due to data anomalies. We recognise the hard work that Ioi puts into the site as well as keeping a full time job.
Maybe move all updates a day later to allow for all the data to come in and be tinkered with properly?

Maybe the people who are complaining can join other tracking websites. A rival website currently has the PS3 & Wii 1.5million & 2.6million lower than VGChartz.

There are no rival sites


 Actually, there are

For example...

http://nexgenwars.com/



I'm an ALIEN!!!! - officially identified as by Konnichiwa

Of course... My English is still... horrible - appreciation and thanks to FJ-Warez  

Brawl FC: 0301-9911-8154

WEWdeadeye on 06 January 2008

Haha, that is NOT a rival site. They just have counters on random numbers. Oh wait, are you joking?



Currently Playing:

PS4 - Killzone:SF and Assasins Creed 4

 

XBox One: BF4, CoD:Ghosts, Dead Rising 3, Forza 5

 

Changing channels with my voice: priceless!!!

Renar on 06 January 2008

Personally, I think that ioi does a great job as well. The numbers here should be taken for trends, either continuing or being broken, not as the gospel of the actual number truly sold.

Every time you use a sample to predict the whole by definition there are going to be outliers, that is what the confidence level means. 95% within X% of the number forces a 5% change of greater than or less than X%.

And I would agrue that retail sales predicting are HARDER than a lot of sampling predictions. Why? Because it is so bottom-up fed. That is, some stores have problems and dont report their sales to corporate until the sales data has already been sent. Or the weather was so bad in a region that no one was nuts enough to go shopping. Or a new computer system goes online and has bugs in it, causing the data to have to be revised a week later.

If your sample data was polling any of those cases, then most likely it WILL become an outlier situation. But, if the later data shows it as such, and it gets corrected, LIKE IT DID, then the initial numbers don't matter!! Sure, PS3 dropped below 20% again, but in a few weeks or so, guess what. It will be back over 20%. How do I know? I don't, but the numbers here show a trend of PS3 % going up and I'm willing to bet that it will continue.



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.

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Renar on 06 January 2008
tiachopvutru said:
zackblue said:
JustinUK said:
Poor Ioi. He's Harassed when the numbers are a few minutes later than usual. Then shouted at when he rushes to put out the numbers and makes some errors due to data anomalies. We recognise the hard work that Ioi puts into the site as well as keeping a full time job.
Maybe move all updates a day later to allow for all the data to come in and be tinkered with properly?

Maybe the people who are complaining can join other tracking websites. A rival website currently has the PS3 & Wii 1.5million & 2.6million lower than VGChartz.

There are no rival sites


Actually, there are

For example...

http://nexgenwars.com/


 From nexgenwars site:

Where do the numbers come from?

The console sales numbers you see on the front page of NexGen Wars are estimates, and are not intended to represent exact, down to the minute sales as only Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony know the exact sales figures of their respective consoles. What we do here at NexGen Wars is compile numbers from NPD, Media Create, ChartTrack, as well as various other sources. We then take these numbers and, based on past sales trends, extrapolate the numbers out to give as close to real-time estimates as possible. Again, these are only estimates, but we are confident in our ability to bring you accurate and unbiased sales figures. Not only do we extrapolate the numbers out so they don't lag months behind with the official sales numbers, but we also update the numbers when new official numbers have been released to keep our estimates as accurate as possible.

So, they are not doing ANY data sampling.  They take data of the above mentioned sites and "based on past sales trends, extrapolate".  Now, while that gives a nice rule of thumb, that November sales will be double October and double again in December, any new changes in buying habits are unknown because there are no samples to base those changes off of.

Even tho they are getting the data at a region level, NPD=US,  etc., the numbers are reported at WW only, so you can't compare to say, oh, this number must be off based on the new NPD number.

 

 



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.

Diomedes1976 on 06 January 2008
Neos said:
Slimebeast said:
Diomedes1976 said:
My philosophy is very simple :

First ,the only data we have for real about "Others " is the French one with 500K for both machines as LTD number so effectively PS3 undertracked adn 360 overtracked there.I understand Ioi doesnt want to use it as we have received it as leaked and through other sites ,but I kinda trust that info.It coincides with what the MS representative told in "les Echos".

Second ,NPD data for october and december was way less for the 360 and regarding the PS3 it was about the same for october (slighty less ) and definitely more for the PS3 as the combined USA+Canada weighed 517K units so some 75K more than tracked here.We dont have a clue yet for NPD data for december so I wont make my mind until I see those and take as good the sites ones for now.

We also have some German info issued from GFk too ,the Spanish 400K number BEFORE the holiday session.Well ,not too much but enough to have some impressions .

I am not speaking the Wii right now .I am under the impression it was being undertracked in my own country as the PS3 is maybe outselling it but not definitely in the more than 2-1 ratio we have been seeing .The Wii isnt sold out everywhere here but has sold very well the christmas ,the PS3 is moving very fast too but the only way it could be doing more than 2 to 1 would be if the Wii definitely had shipments issues.

So in the two sets what I do see is the PS3 slighty undertracked and the 360 overtracked .The Wii I dont know so not speaking .Seeing the PS3 numbers adjusted to the low end and the 360 untouched just seems wrong .I am not saying it cant be ,just that for the few leaked data we have it doesnt sound like it..just the opposite in fact .Maybe its true and the PS3 is overtracked ,but then the 360 is overtracked in an ever greater magnitude.

Other data is the shipments number from MS .If they have shipped 17.7 million (and that includes replacements and everything ) and seeing as last year they claimed 10.4 when they werent even in the 8 million I think definitely the 15 million sold is a way better bet than 16 with something.


I am just saying what I think about this and dont think its so unreasonable.Its not as if I was making numbers myself.

Sorry my portuguese friend, but you are wrong. The PS3 isn't undertracked, it was overtracked.

 


hes spanish =P

at some times i would love to have some ignore user button. It would make things alot easier 


Uh ,Neo ,just a quick reality check .If there was a ignore user button most people would use it on you . By the way ,the 500K number was from GFk ,something most people is conveniantly forgeting about .

Neos on 06 January 2008
Diomedes1976 said:
Neos said:
Slimebeast said:
Diomedes1976 said:
My philosophy is very simple :

First ,the only data we have for real about "Others " is the French one with 500K for both machines as LTD number so effectively PS3 undertracked adn 360 overtracked there.I understand Ioi doesnt want to use it as we have received it as leaked and through other sites ,but I kinda trust that info.It coincides with what the MS representative told in "les Echos".

Second ,NPD data for october and december was way less for the 360 and regarding the PS3 it was about the same for october (slighty less ) and definitely more for the PS3 as the combined USA+Canada weighed 517K units so some 75K more than tracked here.We dont have a clue yet for NPD data for december so I wont make my mind until I see those and take as good the sites ones for now.

We also have some German info issued from GFk too ,the Spanish 400K number BEFORE the holiday session.Well ,not too much but enough to have some impressions .

I am not speaking the Wii right now .I am under the impression it was being undertracked in my own country as the PS3 is maybe outselling it but not definitely in the more than 2-1 ratio we have been seeing .The Wii isnt sold out everywhere here but has sold very well the christmas ,the PS3 is moving very fast too but the only way it could be doing more than 2 to 1 would be if the Wii definitely had shipments issues.

So in the two sets what I do see is the PS3 slighty undertracked and the 360 overtracked .The Wii I dont know so not speaking .Seeing the PS3 numbers adjusted to the low end and the 360 untouched just seems wrong .I am not saying it cant be ,just that for the few leaked data we have it doesnt sound like it..just the opposite in fact .Maybe its true and the PS3 is overtracked ,but then the 360 is overtracked in an ever greater magnitude.

Other data is the shipments number from MS .If they have shipped 17.7 million (and that includes replacements and everything ) and seeing as last year they claimed 10.4 when they werent even in the 8 million I think definitely the 15 million sold is a way better bet than 16 with something.


I am just saying what I think about this and dont think its so unreasonable.Its not as if I was making numbers myself.

Sorry my portuguese friend, but you are wrong. The PS3 isn't undertracked, it was overtracked.

 


hes spanish =P

at some times i would love to have some ignore user button. It would make things alot easier


 

Uh ,Neo ,just a quick reality check .If there was a ignore user button most people would use it on you . By the way ,the 500K number was from GFk ,something most people is conveniantly forgeting about .

 Exactly that's my whole point. I could do rants all the time i want with nobody bothering about it



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!

 

Neos on 06 January 2008
Renar said:
tiachopvutru said:
zackblue said:
JustinUK said:
Poor Ioi. He's Harassed when the numbers are a few minutes later than usual. Then shouted at when he rushes to put out the numbers and makes some errors due to data anomalies. We recognise the hard work that Ioi puts into the site as well as keeping a full time job.
Maybe move all updates a day later to allow for all the data to come in and be tinkered with properly?

Maybe the people who are complaining can join other tracking websites. A rival website currently has the PS3 & Wii 1.5million & 2.6million lower than VGChartz.

There are no rival sites


Actually, there are

For example...

http://nexgenwars.com/


From nexgenwars site:

Where do the numbers come from?

The console sales numbers you see on the front page of NexGen Wars are estimates, and are not intended to represent exact, down to the minute sales as only Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony know the exact sales figures of their respective consoles. What we do here at NexGen Wars is compile numbers from NPD, Media Create, ChartTrack, as well as various other sources. We then take these numbers and, based on past sales trends, extrapolate the numbers out to give as close to real-time estimates as possible. Again, these are only estimates, but we are confident in our ability to bring you accurate and unbiased sales figures. Not only do we extrapolate the numbers out so they don't lag months behind with the official sales numbers, but we also update the numbers when new official numbers have been released to keep our estimates as accurate as possible.

So, they are not doing ANY data sampling. They take data of the above mentioned sites and "based on past sales trends, extrapolate". Now, while that gives a nice rule of thumb, that November sales will be double October and double again in December, any new changes in buying habits are unknown because there are no samples to base those changes off of.

Even tho they are getting the data at a region level, NPD=US, etc., the numbers are reported at WW only, so you can't compare to say, oh, this number must be off based on the new NPD number.

 

 


 Nexgenwars.com isn't updated anymore, they are soon pulling the numbers off the site because the original site owner left the place some time ago (not litteraly, just update-wise) afaik.



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!

 

Diomedes1976 on 06 January 2008

I dont mind too much about the numbers being some thousand units up or down .But having the best info available is the best for the webpage .And sometimes it is infuriating when theres definite info as the 500K 360 number for France said by MS themselves and the site royally passes into adding that data to adjust numbers .I dont know what is needed to adjust data .NPD data doesnt adjust vgchartz data anymore ,Gfk data the same unless its something released in their own webpage ,company info it depends sometimes its used to adjust numbers but others (specially if its Sonys numbers) it isnt .

Next Gen wars is a joke and its not a rival site ,and this site is still the best out there for sales estimations (not tracking ,tracking 2% I am sorry but its not enough ) but it has to clarify some concepts and use it equally for all the companies .And it must use the info from bigger tracking firms as Gfk ,Game charts ,Enterbrain ,Media Create and NPD to have the better data available .Relying in our 2% tracking (or less in Japan and Europe ) just isnt enough .

All the latest data (France numbers ,NPD november ,even Sony just released 1.2 million consoles sold since black friday) add to the belief that the PS3 has been somewhat undertracked and not the contrary .Maybe it was overtracked some 10-15K units in Spain or Italy but the overall numbers are in the high end and probably exceeding the 8.92 millions we had until yesterday .Theres zero info about Spain or Italy data right now ,and the France one puts the PS3 above what we have here so ....I definitely dont see why the PS3 numbers have been lowered .

Not that I care too much ,after all sooner or later the Gfk numbers will be officcial ,npd will release theirs or Georges Fornay (Sony France responsible ) will speak and we will know and the numbers will have to be adjusted all the same .But not changing the numbers until some definite info comes ,some definite info that can be shared with the followers of the site ,would help by not having these kind of stupid discussions about 200k units up or down .