I've seen this comment around here a lot, and every time I see it I tell myself WTF?. I just don't see the logic behind that. It seems this assumption is quite popular in VGC, so I'm here to try to debunk it.
Let's put a simple example. Console A and console B.
Console A expects to sell 10m consoles in 3 countries.
Country 1=5m
Country 2=3m
Country 3=2m
Country B aslo expects to sell 10m, but in 6 countries.
Country 1=3m
Country 2=2m
Country 3=2m
Country 4=1m
Country 5=1m
Country 6=1m
Let's say that in each country needs 10% extra stock for the coming month. Small markets will have enough with 0.1m for a month, but the big one needs 0.5m:
Console A= 0.5m + 0.3m + 0.2m = 1m extra stock.
Console B= 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.1 = 1m extra stock.
So, yes, console B ships to more countries, but if the amount of consoles sold is the same, the stock is going to be the same. Small markets need a bit of stock, but on the other hand that is negated by needing quite less stock in big markets.
PS3 ships to more small markets, but that is negated because X360 needs much more stock in America, enough stock for, say, 10 much smaller markets
So, obviously, it's the number you expect to sell that's important, not how sales are spread between different markets. You may expect Sony to ship more, but that would be because, thanks to the extra markets, it sells more overall, not because of the extra markets per se. If the number of units moved WW is expected to be the same, the stock should be similar.
If I am missing something and making an ass of myself let me know, but I think this is the case.
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