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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox 360 Vs. Playstation 3 2012 - *February* Update

Jay520 on 05 November 2011
Player1x3 said:
Shinobi-san said:
Player1x3 said:

First of all i was just putting out some suggestions of a proposed scenario that could happen. I wasnt claiming that the 360 will absolutely outsell the ps2 in americas, i was just trying to show you that its not crazy and that it has a chance, even though its a slight chance. Maybe you think this is my prediction or something but its not. I really havnt given the topic much thought. Other than the above post.

Id like to see xbox doin even remotely close to ps2's numbers in its 11th year

i was merely pointing out that the ps2 is in its true final years now, its really not gonna be long before Sony pulls ps2 in americas.

so you think it will sell 5-6 million in next 1.5 months ONLY IN AMERICA ??? That's some serious ddelusion right there

360 is at 33.8 mil atm, i said it could end up with 38 - 39.So that would put the numbers at 4 - 5 this year as a POSSIBILITY, NOT 5 - 6. Maths failure? Again not my prediction but a possible scenario. 4mil is a reasonable amount if MS has some sort of plan.

You can't possibly think that's possible, do you now. 7 million in america only in its 7th year with all the hype about next gen?

Again a rough estimation, but 360 will have another strong year next year thats for sure, unless something drastic happens to slow their momentum.

That's a lot of ''ifs'' and best case scenarios there .Not really much to go on.

Well it was precisely my point to put a best case scenario out ther. After all a best case scenrio is stil a scenario. And obviously im using "ifs" i dont have a FUCKING crystal ball.

PS2 is seriously undertracked here btw

This is silly. I was using vgchartz data.

I believe it is. It is wrong to assume a console can sell almost 100% of its LTD sales in its last years...

Again its not 100% your maths is off again. Lets say 360 ends up with 37 mil at the end of this year. (selling 3 mil from now til end of year). It would need to sell 20mil to pass ps2 (if ps2 is at +57mil). Now lets do the maths. -----does maths calculations in a few seconds cos im not a retard----- It would need to sell 54% of its LTD sales.

Even if we use the exact LTD sales as of this very moment the number is stil not even close to 100%. Its more around the 70% mark.

You need to do two things:

1. learn to do basic math calculations.

2. and ease the fuck up theres really no need for using bold and underlining.

I wasnt even making a prediction! Just saying its not a crazy statement.


Ok, your the one who needs to ''ease the fuck up''

You know, PSP has a ''slight'' chance of outselling PS1, doesn't mean that prediction isnt kinda delusional.

Sony said they're gonna support PS2 as long as it sells aroun the world, and seeing as how ps2 is incredibly cheap to manufacture and how well is it selling in 3rd world countries, it should stay on market for 2-3 more years i would say

Maths failure? LMAO, i only rounded up the numbers, but its funny how you call someone up on something insignificant as that, shows how strong you believe in your arguments.4 million is more possible than 5 or 6 but still highly unlikely.

Strong year? Why? Because 5th or 6th halo will get released? Or price cut on already cheap console that already hit its massive market price? I really fail to see how xbox's next year is gonna be ''strong ''

Best case scenario is rarely the most reasonable one.Doesnt make this prediction much more credible.

Yeah, vgchartz has PS2 seriously undertracked here, and by that i mean undertracked by 20 million last time i checked, they could have fixed it by now, im not sure

I was somehow under the impression xbox was at 29 or 29 million in America, I apologize

need to lear basic math calculations? Alright dude, calm down, I didn't mean to insult you by rounding up the numbers

Wow, you see bold and underlining as some form of agression and you tell me to ease the fuck up? Priceless



Dude, just admit the mistake that you mis-examined the situation and jumped the gun at calling people delusional. That word should really only be used to describe someone who puts full-faith into a nearly-impossible occurrence, not someone who simply acknowledges the possibility of something fairly possible actually happening. The probability may not be too high, but it's certainly not low enough to declare someone delusional for fancying with it's likelihood.

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enditall727 on 05 November 2011
ils411 said:
enditall727 said:

okay let's compare

2010

OCT 9th   PS3: 237,892    360: 181,320

OCT 16th   PS3: 243,828   360: 171,372

OCT 23rd   PS3: 253,279   360: 176,618

OCT 30th   PS3: 283,793   360: 213,045

 

NOV 6th   PS3 313,465   360: 360,822   <--- Kinect Debut week

NOV 13th   PS3 378,898   360: 520,893   <---Black Ops Debut week (huge 360 hardware boost)

NOV 20th   PS3: 345,757   360: 453,942

NOV 27th   PS3: 765,116   360: 885,353   <--- Gran Turismo 5 Debut week

 

DEC 4th   PS3: 619,455   360: 665,244

DEC 11th   PS3:696,487   360: 771,313

DEC 18th   PS3: 897,211   360: 1,060,849

DEC 25th   PS3: 931,958   360: 1,114,283

 

2011

now Nov 5th 2011 is basically already confirmed to be taken by ps3

Nov 12th will be dominated by 360 due to MW3 but im not sure if it will be as big of a difference between ps3 and 360 like when black ops released because 360 was already ahead by a little less than 50k the previous week due to 360 slim+ $500 MILL advertised Kinect launch

Nov 19th should still be taken by 360 riding the small MW3 wave

but im not sure about the other 6 weeks because 360 does not have a slim 360 this year, no price cut (YET but it's just about too late for 1 to make a difference now), no $500 mill launch of kinect like last year and no new big kinect games to do anything relevant for it this holiday season(aka kinect wont be as big as it was last year)

but i guess we will have to see what happens

EDIT: idk how to do those little charts and i also did not read through the whole thread so sorry ahead of time if somebody already compared holiday 2010 to 2011

Since were reviewing, here's a bigger picture

 

Period PS3 Xbox360 Lead (PS3) Lead (X360)
Jan 3rd 2010 - Oct 30th 2010 8,888,835 7,301,151 1,587,684  
Oct 31st 2010 - Jan 1 2011 5,502,536 6,305,487   802,951
         
Total 2010 14,391,371 13,606,638 784,733  
         
         
Jan 2nd 2011 - Oct 29th 2011 8,778,992 7,242,745 1,536,247  

Notice the similarities? History may very well repeat itself

 

yea it could repeat itself if 360 had the 360 slim launching this year AND a $500 mill ad Kinect launch this year

does it??

:)



thismeintiel on 05 November 2011
ils411 said:
Reasonable said:
ils411 said:

GTAV X360 Exclusive confirmed?

Maybe that's their plan for 2012!

I wouldn't be surprised if its true since money makes the world go round

That would never happen.  Exclusive DLC, sure.  Exclusive game, nah.  Take Two are just like Activision, yea they can be bought out for an exclusive bundle or DLC, but they would never give up the money that would come from ~10 mil sales on the PS3.  To put that in math/money terms, let's say that GTA5 sells 10 million on PS3.  10 million x $60 = $600 million.  Take Two probably sees about half of that, so that's still $300 million.  Is MS going to pay ~$200-300 million for the exclusivity of one title.  Hells no. 



 

ils411 on 05 November 2011
enditall727 said:
ils411 said:
enditall727 said:

okay let's compare

2010

OCT 9th   PS3: 237,892    360: 181,320

OCT 16th   PS3: 243,828   360: 171,372

OCT 23rd   PS3: 253,279   360: 176,618

OCT 30th   PS3: 283,793   360: 213,045

 

NOV 6th   PS3 313,465   360: 360,822   <--- Kinect Debut week

NOV 13th   PS3 378,898   360: 520,893   <---Black Ops Debut week (huge 360 hardware boost)

NOV 20th   PS3: 345,757   360: 453,942

NOV 27th   PS3: 765,116   360: 885,353   <--- Gran Turismo 5 Debut week

 

DEC 4th   PS3: 619,455   360: 665,244

DEC 11th   PS3:696,487   360: 771,313

DEC 18th   PS3: 897,211   360: 1,060,849

DEC 25th   PS3: 931,958   360: 1,114,283

 

2011

now Nov 5th 2011 is basically already confirmed to be taken by ps3

Nov 12th will be dominated by 360 due to MW3 but im not sure if it will be as big of a difference between ps3 and 360 like when black ops released because 360 was already ahead by a little less than 50k the previous week due to 360 slim+ $500 MILL advertised Kinect launch

Nov 19th should still be taken by 360 riding the small MW3 wave

but im not sure about the other 6 weeks because 360 does not have a slim 360 this year, no price cut (YET but it's just about too late for 1 to make a difference now), no $500 mill launch of kinect like last year and no new big kinect games to do anything relevant for it this holiday season(aka kinect wont be as big as it was last year)

but i guess we will have to see what happens

EDIT: idk how to do those little charts and i also did not read through the whole thread so sorry ahead of time if somebody already compared holiday 2010 to 2011

Since were reviewing, here's a bigger picture

 

Period PS3 Xbox360 Lead (PS3) Lead (X360)
Jan 3rd 2010 - Oct 30th 2010 8,888,835 7,301,151 1,587,684  
Oct 31st 2010 - Jan 1 2011 5,502,536 6,305,487   802,951
         
Total 2010 14,391,371 13,606,638 784,733  
         
         
Jan 2nd 2011 - Oct 29th 2011 8,778,992 7,242,745 1,536,247  

Notice the similarities? History may very well repeat itself

 

yea it could repeat itself if 360 had the 360 slim launching this year AND a $500 mill ad Kinect launch this year

does it??

:

nope, which is why i said that history could repeat itself, wherein the 360 outsells the ps3 in nov and dec but still falls behind total year.



ils411 on 05 November 2011
thismeintiel said:
ils411 said:
Reasonable said:
ils411 said:

GTAV X360 Exclusive confirmed?

Maybe that's their plan for 2012!

I wouldn't be surprised if its true since money makes the world go round

That would never happen.  Exclusive DLC, sure.  Exclusive game, nah.  Take Two are just like Activision, yea they can be bought out for an exclusive bundle or DLC, but they would never give up the money that would come from ~10 mil sales on the PS3.  To put that in math/money terms, let's say that GTA5 sells 10 million on PS3.  10 million x $60 = $600 million.  Take Two probably sees about half of that, so that's still $300 million.  Is MS going to pay ~$200-300 million for the exclusivity of one title.  Hells no. 

I dont see why not if it means selling a helovalot more x360s. but thats just me.



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thismeintiel on 05 November 2011
enditall727 said:
ils411 said:

Since were reviewing, here's a bigger picture

 

Period PS3 Xbox360 Lead (PS3) Lead (X360)
Jan 3rd 2010 - Oct 30th 2010 8,888,835 7,301,151 1,587,684  
Oct 31st 2010 - Jan 1 2011 5,502,536 6,305,487   802,951
         
Total 2010 14,391,371 13,606,638 784,733  
         
         
Jan 2nd 2011 - Oct 29th 2011 8,778,992 7,242,745 1,536,247  

Notice the similarities? History may very well repeat itself

 

yea it could repeat itself if 360 had the 360 slim launching this year AND a $500 mill ad Kinect launch this year

does it??

:)

Don't forget Halo:Reach.  That and what you stated above is what I think some are ignoring.  The main reasons the 360 was able to come back so strong was the HUGE Kinect push and success, plus the added interest from the new 360 Slim and the launch of a much waited exclusive.  360, even if it gets a $50 cut, won't have anything to match that this year.

To look at how big of an effect those were last year, go back a year further, and look at 2009 sales.  This was when the PS3 saw its Slim launch and when had a price cut to $299 (we'll use this cut to equal the impact of Kinect and any large title launches).  Also, keep in mind that the 360 also had an entry SKU $100 cheaper than the PS3's entry SKU. 

Month PS3 360 PS3 Lead
Nov '09 1,908,850  1,636,850 +272,000
Dec '09 3,930,490 2,705,045 +1,225,445
Total 5,839,340 4,341,895 +1,497,445

While I realize this isn't going to be an exact 1:1 comparison, it does help one realize just how big an impact a Slim model and a significant cut (or in the 360's case, Kinect and Halo:Reach last year) can be.  Even with two SKUs cheaper than the PS3's entry price and the release of MW2 (the difference between launch weeks and HW boosts were larger in '09), the PS3 was able to outsell the 360 by ~1.5 million for the holiday season.  For last Nov and Dec, the 360 was able to outsell the PS3 by a total of 803K.  Again, the 360 has NOTHING for it this year that will let it equal the impact of reasons described above.



 

thismeintiel on 05 November 2011
ils411 said:
thismeintiel said:
ils411 said:
Reasonable said:
ils411 said:

GTAV X360 Exclusive confirmed?

Maybe that's their plan for 2012!

I wouldn't be surprised if its true since money makes the world go round

That would never happen.  Exclusive DLC, sure.  Exclusive game, nah.  Take Two are just like Activision, yea they can be bought out for an exclusive bundle or DLC, but they would never give up the money that would come from ~10 mil sales on the PS3.  To put that in math/money terms, let's say that GTA5 sells 10 million on PS3.  10 million x $60 = $600 million.  Take Two probably sees about half of that, so that's still $300 million.  Is MS going to pay ~$200-300 million for the exclusivity of one title.  Hells no. 

I dont see why not if it means selling a helovalot more x360s. but thats just me.

Cause it wouldn't sell a hellavlot more 360's.  It would get a similar boost to a Halo game, but we both know those boosts are temporary.  They would have to sell over 1 million more 250GB 360's due to the game just to break even.  Of course, no game has been responsible for that kinda boost.  Sure, maybe a few 100K, but not over 1 million.  And I doubt MS investors would be too keen on MS spending ~$300 million for one game, not when they already know they have a NeXbox in development.  Then you have Take Two, who would also be looking at the millions in lost revenue from the DLC of a PS3 version, so they would probably make MS pay more than $300 million.  Which coupled with console sales and the small amount they see from game and DLC sales, there still likely be no return on investment. 

No smart business is going to do that this late in the gen.  And MS is a smart business most of the time.



 

MARCUSDJACKSON on 05 November 2011
ils411 said:
thismeintiel said:
ils411 said:
Reasonable said:
ils411 said:

GTAV X360 Exclusive confirmed?

Maybe that's their plan for 2012!

I wouldn't be surprised if its true since money makes the world go round

That would never happen.  Exclusive DLC, sure.  Exclusive game, nah.  Take Two are just like Activision, yea they can be bought out for an exclusive bundle or DLC, but they would never give up the money that would come from ~10 mil sales on the PS3.  To put that in math/money terms, let's say that GTA5 sells 10 million on PS3.  10 million x $60 = $600 million.  Take Two probably sees about half of that, so that's still $300 million.  Is MS going to pay ~$200-300 million for the exclusivity of one title.  Hells no. 

I dont see why not if it means selling a helovalot more x360s. but thats just me.

2 points. one its to late in the life cycle for something like that. 2. why would MS bother when GTA4 didn't boost hardware by much on either console? MS has Halo4 and that should take care of 2012 holiday season 2012. DLC is about all you can hope for, but there is a chance. sometimes moves like that just arn't worth it no matter how much it helps.

but note this. i favor MS in 2012, but there still is much we don't know about 2012. i'll put it like this. Activision wouldn't do an exclusive COD for anyone. thats just bad business. Ubisoft with Splintercell conviction is a whole nother matter. and that was bad business. so Take 2 Rockstar/2k has a Billion $ franchise and are going to take 300m for an exclusive. thats bad business when they would likely make 600m or more on GTA5 by releasing it multiplatform but you know that.

if anything Rockstar would take 300m for DLC exclusivity, and for me that makes more sense but it seems Ubisoft discredits what makes sense for a billion $ company so sense may not apply.



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thx1139 on 05 November 2011

Why was the claim made that PS3 already basically confirmed to lead ending 11/5?



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

ils411 on 06 November 2011
thx1139 said:
Why was the claim made that PS3 already basically confirmed to lead ending 11/5?


ummm... because M$ said so?... on numerous occations even?