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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox 360 Vs. Playstation 3 2012 - *February* Update

Dodece said:
@jay520

Not very confident in our prediction, or did you not understand what I was offering. I have a counter proposal that you cannot possibly refuse. I win and nothing happens to you, because lets be honest I will be a fucking prophet on these forums. What more could I need. You win and my account is deleted, and I will even throw in a permaban. So I am basically offering up the kingdom.

I am going to be forthright with you. I was hoping to suck someone else in with this fools bet. I am not at liberty to say certain things. Suffice it to say something is going to happen in little over a month that is going to have a massive impact on console sales. So yes this difference is going to happen. I just didn't give the complete reason.

It just wouldn't be fair, and I got to be honest about that up front.


You work at Microsoft? Know something that no one else does? If you were referring to me, I don't take bets. And if your talking about Xbox Live TV, I highly doubt that will play that big of a role in holiday sales, at least compared to how big Kinect was last year. And as this months NPD shows price cuts still indeed have a very dramatic effect on sales even this late into the generation.



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Dodece is talking bout a $50 price cut on all MS skus at or a few days after MW3 launches



                                                             

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BHR-3 said:
Dodece is talking bout a $50 price cut on all MS skus at or a few days after MW3 launches


If you're deducing correctly than LOL what a hippocrite, talking about the pointlessness of price cuts while anticipating an enormous impact from one in the future. Of course only if you're correct. Even then I doubt a $50 cut will be enough to turn things around for MS, especially after the adjustments we'll be seeing after NPD and likely again once quarterly reports come in.



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Dodece said:
I find it worrisome how so many fall back into old habits. The era of price cuts tipping the balance is largely behind us as far as this generation is concerned. Lower price points have already been exploited to maximum effect. That is why the PS3 price cut wasn't dramatically effective, and that is why Microsoft isn't likely to bother following suit. It really isn't worth the lost profits for the miniscule bump.

We are in a new era, and it isn't so much about the price or the games for that matter. What is really going to matter in the run towards the finish is features and marketing. What is going to determine whether Microsoft can win is how well the new dashboard is received. You have to understand that streaming entertainment is exploding right now, and frankly it is the wave of the future. Before the end of the year in North America you might see as many as one hundred million streaming their entertainment during prime time.

The moral of the story is this. If Microsoft runs a massive campaign championing their dashboard with a dozen or so streaming providers. Plus being Kinect enabled which makes mortals feel like gods. You better believe the 360 will explode in sales. Microsoft insinuating itself as a premier streamer through their live service is like riding a very big wave. Really it is a question of grace if they pull it off flawlessly. Many of you could end this year scratching your heads trying to figure out just how Microsoft pulled two million units ahead of the PS3.

I would like to make a conservative prediction in saying that Microsoft will be finishing this year at least a million units ahead of Sony. Yes I said what you think I just said, and I am so terribly confident in my prediction. I am more then willing to entertain bets up to and including account deletion.


I think it remains to be seen how successful the new streaming services are. From what i understand they will cost additional money above what a person would pay for xbox subscription, and considerably more than netflix would cost.  so the question is, would people pay to use streaming apps using their xbox when they dont have to? Guess we will find out



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pezus said:
How silly to say the 360 is more popular than the PS3 in 90% of the world. That's wrong and entirely misleading.
So the 360 is more popular in 90% of the world while PS3 is more popular in 80% of the world? The world is 170% right guys?


hmm... That actually makes sense if you don't think about it....

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pezus said:
Jay520 said:
pezus said:
How silly to say the 360 is more popular than the PS3 in 90% of the world. That's wrong and entirely misleading.
So the 360 is more popular in 90% of the world while PS3 is more popular in 80% of the world? The world is 170% right guys?


hmm... That actually makes sense if you don't think about it....

While we're at it we could throw the Wii in there and boost the world up to 270%!



Yeah, like I said earlier, Michael has some pretty unusual logic.

BTW Dodece, do you realize exactly what your predicting? 360 sells effectively nothing in Japan and nothing is going to change that at this point. That's basically a free 700k-900k advantage for PS3 for the rest of the year. And barring something huge happening 360 will most likely never outsell PS3 in EMEAA ever again. If it couldn't do it on the week of the kinect launch than nothing could. From November through December 2009 the Wii outsold the PS3 in Americas by about 2.7 million. 360 would need to outsell PS3 by more than that in Americas to end the year a million units ahead. Depending on how things go in EMEAA (and assuming no further adjustments) it would need to outsell it by about 3.5-4 million in Americas.



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I'll update this fortnightly just in case anyone is interested in the OP :-p



 

postofficebuddy said:

BTW Dodece, do you realize exactly what your predicting?

I dont think he does, it needs to catch up 2+ million in 13 weeks, so it needs to outsell the ps3 by 150k each week for the rest of the year.

We'll see how it is next week, Im guessing a slight lead for the ps3 again. Which will bring it up to 166k for the remaining weeks.

Only a $100 pricecut or giving away kinect free with the console will do it IMO.



All bow to me the VGChartz current reigning 3DS prediction champion 

 Bet with tbone51: Pokeon X & pokemon Y will not sell more than 8 million in 2013

 jarrod said:The Xbox360 or ps3 will not sell more than 75million units

July 2009 daveJ saidTrue the wii has a large lead now but by 2017 the most likely result will be 1. ps3 2. xbox360 3. wii <-- wii's successor launched in 2011 effectively killing sales of the wii

 2009 daveJ said: The wii will not break the 50% marketshare barrier it will go below the 40% marketshare barrier though in the future. VGChartz members: Impossible, youre an idiot that knows nothing about sales

Michael-5 said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
Michael-5 said:
 

360 will fall in AMEAA as fast as PS3 falls in Americas. I'm just saying Japan is the difference between PS3/360 sales, and like the Wii, DS, and soon PSP, I think PS3 sales will start to crash real soon, before the PS4 comes out.

You keep saying the RPG's will keep PS3 a float after 2012, but what RPG's? There might be something small here and there, but I don't think we will see another mainstream Final Fantasy or Tales of title on the PS3 anymore. Versus is the last game that could boost PS3's sales, and I'm not sure what's going on with that game. Either way the RPG support will be a lot weaker in 2012 and onward. A lot weaker. thats were your wrong. this cross platform play thing between Vita and PS3 will seal the deal. considering the games that are apart of this will be available in 1 retail package for 1 price is marketing gold. i'm not really talking about games but they are there. to much is yet unknown about next yr but i expect alot on all fronts not just from Sony but MS to. Ninty is another matter.

This next bit is unrelated, and heavily based on opinion, so anyone other then Marcus, just skip to the next comment. I think Next gen, PS4 will be the superrior product. I think MS will go along and make the X-Box a trendy product. They are doing it with Kinect now, and advertizing silly things like facebook. I know Windows 8 will mimic what a Mac OS can do, in both looks and functionality, and the super thin Samsung laptops mimic physics appearance, and I think overall MS is trying to appear more trendy. you mean casual? yea trendy. MS is trying to do something that has been attemted and failed but they will succeed. they want everything on Xbox live but it will take a major backseat to the games. wonder for one second when your XB 364 plays every tv show, and sports event.

its more of a casual, trendy, media, family sort of thing when all we need is a gaming system with great online, so in effect MS is lossing focus while Sony is doing wht there doing while focusing more on games. its what PSN and XBL will be next gen and it will already be ready when you load up your system. i guess the idea is for you to only need a 360/kinect or XB736 with intergrated kinect features and a TV and only pay 1 price, and thats XBL.

the thing is the cost of all of this. whos going to pay a likely $100 for those features? welll the only thing it won't have is a phone line but i'm sure you'll be able to do that to through either your head set or with just a wave of your hand in front of you XB8B2 lol.

the only other thing is that if everything i just said is true then it will definately cost more then $100. if your not M5 fill free to read but don't quote to respond to this post. just skip to the next comment or make one. ye thats right keep a step'n. nobody needs to get hurt.

PS4 will be the most funtional system for gamers. PSN will offer what gamers want (Free online, and extras with PSN Plus). Trophies will be cross platform (PS3, PS4, PSV), and as a traditional gaming device, PS4 will be the best. yes other then Wiiu PS4 will be a gaming device with optional media functions while the XB367 will be a media hub first then a gaming system. depends on wht you want?

However I think Nintendo next gen will really make the best 1st party games. It's just a feeling, I think this gen they were focused on just doing what they can to keep sales strong. I think Nintendo themselves were surprised at how well the Wii did, and they just didn't know what type of software they could make. That's why every popular game has or will be bundled, and most of the great games aren't too different from prior games. However for Wii U, they realize they need more software, so I think Nintendo will really work on making a proper Zelda, an excellent Pikmin, a few new IP's and work on getting some sick third party exclusives (like RE4 for GCN), i don't know about the best but i see them doing what i've wanted them to do and thts focus on new IP that will push the hardware and thats what we're going to see form Nintendo. yea i shot Nintendo down at E3 and didn't win over anyone in the Nintendo camp but the potential is what i'm looking at, and if Nintendo pulls it off i'm there(a 15 new franchies/innovation restriction does apply/got to know i'm getting games and not hardware) 

yea i agree. i think Wii surprised nintendo but the reason wht it shouldn't have is because  of the virtual console! thats what i wanted. thats what everyone i know wanted and it delivered the games we remebered playing that made Nintendo back then. you know. before the N64/gamecube.

Back to MS, they will be popular in the US. The nextbox probably won't do anything any better then PS4, but just like iPods and iPhones are supper marked up products, I feel the next box will be an over-priced trendy piece of crap. Like this gen, they will have some great IP's for the hardcore, but I think the focus will be shifted to the casual. true but the main focus will be on wht it is now and thats multi-media. if you've noticed i speak of MS and multi-media and Sony with RPG's and thats what its going to be like. Sony will provide every genre on PS4 over media, and XB671 will focus on more media. once again do you want media, games, are both? Sony will provide both almost as good as MS. MS won't be up there in the games catagory, and Ninty will focus on games.

i wouldn't dispute this if i was a sane person. thats a warnging to anyone other then M5 reading that wants to quote this and disagree.

All speculation, but I'm excited about the PS4, and it trophies are cross platform, I might just stick with Sony's and get MS/Ninty consoles when they are cheap for the exclusives. hey thats my idea lol!



Okay I know a lot of PSV and PS3 games will be cross platform, but this does not mean that you will be able to pick up the PS3 version and play it on PSV (or does it?). This could help PS3 sales, but if the games are available on PSV, I doubt we will see any massive JRPG sales on the PS3 like a typicall Tales of or FF exclusive brings. We might see a few 100k+ debutes in Japan for PS3. but I don't think were going to see another 500k+ debut in Japan after FFXIII-2. yes and no. they are going to make games that you can play on both consoles on 2 different media devices at retail for one price so your getting to games for one. its gaming on the go at its best. your at home and need to go somewhere and you want to continue to play your game. you can do so becuase of cross platform play and save. you can save the same content across both platforms. 

the thing is though. well you should know me well enough to know that the sells in this area deal way to far into speculation for me to touch but sells wise its a great argument. 

WW I think PS3 has strength until 2013, same with 360. Just Japan, I think it might die earlier then the rest of the world. thats sound. can't argue that. lets say sells around 8m for the yr 2014 PS3? 0m for 360 because MS will want to focus souly on XB550 and will fill a need to discontinue the 360? you know it sounds like we've had this conversation before?

Long rant on XBL, but I agree with you. With TV coming in, it's only a matter of time before they start offering you Skype. Not sure if XBL price will go up to $100 anytime soon, but it will. PSN will also become more game focused, I agree 100% except on the Next-Box names. you should be use to them by now or did you not notice them in our lst conversation lol?

For Nintendo, I don't think they will make that many new IP's, but I feel the level of quality of their games will jump. Super Mario platformers are already excellent, but I expect a more traditional Zelda (like OoT), a more photo realistic Pikmin, and well a great game from every one of their IP's (Metroid, Smash Bros, Donkey Kong, Mario Kart, heck maybe even a proper Mario Kart). agreed on all points but they will need to make amny first party IP that do more then wht they have to really push the hardware, but i think they go second party to push there console to get those experiances.

I love Virtual Console. I have most of my old games, but now finally I have a legit version of Chrono Trigger. Been meaning to own a copy of this game for ages, but I'm not willing to spend $100+ for a SNES cartridge. lol i'm with you there budy. i also have a friend that hacked his Wii and got alot of classic games for free but they weren't from the virtual console, and piracy isn't my thing.

We basically agree for most of my speculation. However I think as a multi-media device, the PS4 will only do the basics. We won't see TV, or ESPN, or Facebook on PS4, but you will have a browser, Blu-Ray-DVD-CD player, and well everything a normal person would use. No gimics, no extra fancy stuff. well Sony is already siad to be working on the TV thing, but E3 2012 will be the place to find out more. yea no gimics i hope.

For MS games, I kind of disagree. MS will produce some great games, just I don't see them making too many games that appeal outside of Americas. MS will produce great shooters (Halo), racing games (Forza), Casual Games (Kinect Dance Games), and maybe some WRPG's. They will be the best, or among the best in these categories. However I don't see a good 1st party JRPG coming to the 360, nor a good platformer or Action Adventure game. Maybe a good fighting game with Killer Instinct, but I don't think that game will be any special. you know i'm with you 100% on that. MS will try the 3rd party dev. again next gen and they'll fail to get much support and that will force them to focus interenaly, and build/buy teams versus the lader.

Overall for games I think Sony and Nintendo will appeal to the broadest audience with good games for all genres. However Ninty will appeal more to the casual and nostalgic audience while MS will appeal the most to Americans. yea i guess? if Sony has great marketing and the games to back it up then MS will have a 3 way run for there money in the Americas and likely be a close third place. i think all 3 will appeal to the Americas but Sony and Nintendo will have the rest of the world at there ness. also Sony and Nintendo will have a war in Japan and that will breed more JRPG's from Sony giving them more market everywhere becuase they won't be region locked.

360 will fall in AMEAA as fast as PS3 falls in Americas. I'm just saying Japan is the difference between PS3/360 sales, and like the Wii, DS, and soon PSP, I think PS3 sales will start to crash real soon, before the PS4 comes out.  agreed. i didn't answer this one from the last post so there ya go. i think Japan will still show love to PS3 giving Sony the win as everything else will play out the same over the next few yrs, unless MS gets a crazy boost out of no where in Americas and PS3 does the same in EMEAA's and if Sony can crack into China by the end of next yr then its over for 360's second place lead, but thta has yet to happen for Sony so its one of those in doubt things. MS tried first and didn't like the deal that china gave them.

there still is the matter of the slim2 and continued price drops from the larger harddrives of PS360, so we still have much more room for sells boost and more arguements for the war.

hey i almost forgot that PSV can be used as a PS3 controler wirelessly, so it is Wiiu before its time.