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Forums - Movies & TV - Weekend Estimates ( Help > Colombiana > Dark > Apes > Idiot Brother)

I LOVE GIGGS on 25 August 2011

Forecast: 'Help' Has Only the 'Dark' to Fear

As summer winds down, the box office is in for another slow weekend with the debuts of Colombiana on nearly 2,900 screens at 2,614 locations, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark on around 2,850 screens at 2,760 locations and Our Idiot Brother at 2,555 single-screen locations.

Excitement seems low enough for these movies that The Help could rule the roost again. The drama continued to hold well on the weekdays and is poised for another small drop-off.

Due to the popularity of its supernatural horror sub-genre and an aggressive marketing campaign promising tried-and-true scares, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark is the new movie most likely to uproot The Help. The remake of the 1973 television movie of the same name marks the second release from FilmDistrict, which successfully distributed the similar  Insidious this past spring.

Aside from being the first starring vehicle for Zoe Saldana, little distinguishes Colombiana, which looks like just another slick action-revenge picture for the late summer. Even wtih established action names, these movies rarely spark much interest.

Paul Rudd also gets his first sole-name-above-the-title star vehicle with Our Idiot Brother, though the movie sports a recognizable supporting cast. Rudd usually is the straight man, but, here, he's stretching as the comedic centerpiece. The movie's premise, though, appears one note, lacking the drive to go anywhere theatrically.

In Box Office Mojo's "when will you see it?" reader polling, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark's packing 13.7 percent for opening weekend, which was on the high end for its sub-genre (Insidious had 8.3 percent) and greater thanQuarantine and The Last Exorcism (from the same weekend last year) among comparble titles. Guillermo del Toro's brand name, though, may have stacked the deck.

Colombiana polled at a soft 8.3 percent for opening weekend, which was worse than The Losers, From Paris with Love and Bangkok Dangerous among similar movies. Our Idiot Brother trailed with 6.9 percent for opening weekend, and it's been tracking close to The Switch from last August.

The Forecast, Aug. 26-28
1. The Help - $15.5 million
2. Don't Be Afraid of the Dark - $15 million
3. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $10 million
4. Colombiana - $8 million
5. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World - $7 million
6. Our Idiot Brother - $6 million

Bar for Success
Modest movies mean low expectations, but Don't Be Afraid of the Dark still needs to open well in to the teen millions just to be respectable by supernatural horror standards. Colombiana would need over $10 million to be respectable for a late August action movie, while the bar is lowest for Our Idiot Brother, but it still will be dissed if it doesn't hit the high single digits.

 

 



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I LOVE GIGGS on 26 August 2011

Weekend Predictions: Will The Help Clean Up at the Box Office?

 

Three wide releases this week, Colombiana, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark and My Idiot Brother, but it is likely that none will pose much of a threat to The Help, which is likely to repeat at the top of the box office. There could be an interesting race for second place, as there's no clear consensus on which new release is the strongest or the weakest. Unfortunately, this is because all three are equally weak. Worse still, this weekend last year saw twofilms earn more than $20 million, which is a mark no film this weekend will match. On the other hand, those were the only two films to crack $10 million, while there could be four, or perhaps even five films do the same this weekend. Perhaps depth will help 2011 come out with a win, but I wouldn't be willing to bet money on that.

The Help already has more than $80 million at the box office, while there is a slim, very slim, chance it will crack $100 million by the end of business on Sunday. Its strong reviews and lack of direct competition should help it earn $15 million over the weekend, pushing its running tally to $98 million, more or less. At this pace, it will become the 21st film of 2011 to reach the century mark on Monday, Tuesday at the latest.

Don't Be Afraid of the Dark is probably going to be the biggest hit among the three new releases. Or at the very least, it likely has the smallest chance of completely bombing. The film is directed by Troy Nixey, who is making his feature-length directorial debut, so it is hard to judge the film's potential in that regard. On the other hand, it is based on a script by Guillermo del Toro, which should help with the buzz somewhat. Meanwhile, the reviews are better than average for this time of year, but still not strong enough to reach the overall positive level. Don't be Afraid of the Dark might grab first place with $15 million, but second place with $12 million is far more likely.

Colombiana was written by Luc Besson, who is a master of this type of glossyaction film. However, while he has been involved in countless such films, they are rarely more than midlevel hits. Additionally, the star, Zoe Saldana, is not yet a proven box office draw. She has been in three monster hits, but her drawing power is unproven, as she's rarely had to carry a film. Finally, thereviews are better than average for this time of year, but again not at the overall positive level. That adds up to an $11 million opening weekend, which may or may not be enough to be the best of the new releases.

Our Idiot Brother is the final new release of the week and there are more than a few analysts predicting this film will bomb. The film does have a number of big stars, but as much as people like Zooey Deschanel, for instance, she's not exactly a proven box office draw. The film's reviews are the best of the three wide releases this week and it could mean strong word-of-mouth. On the other hand, this is just the latest in a flood of R-rated comedies and since the last couple failed, I suspect this one will as well. Worse case scenario has the film opening with less than One Day did last weekend and missing the top five with just over $5 million. Best case scenario has it fighting for second place with $12 million. I'm going with just under $10 million.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes should round out the top five with $9 million, although with a little luck, it will remain above $10 million. This would lift the film's running tally to $150 million, more or less.


Seece on 26 August 2011

Glad to see RotPotA hold on



 

Wagram on 26 August 2011

I'll catch Colombiana when it hits DVD.



I LOVE GIGGS on 27 August 2011

Friday Estimates

Rank*TitleFriday
8/26
(Estimates)		Saturday
8/27		Sunday
8/28		Monday
8/29
1 THE HELP
Buena Vista

2,778		 $4,404,000

+66.8% / $1,585
$86,701,000 / 17
N/A
N/A
N/A
2 COLOMBIANA
TriStar

2,614		 $3,750,000

-- / $1,435
$3,750,000 / 1
N/A
N/A
N/A
3 DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK
FilmDistrict

2,760		 $3,629,000

-- / $1,315
$3,629,000 / 1
N/A
N/A
N/A
4 RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Fox

3,374		 $2,585,000

+86.2% / $766
$142,391,000 / 22
N/A
N/A
N/A
5 OUR IDIOT BROTHER
Weinstein Company

2,555		 $2,374,000

-- / $929
$2,374,000 / 1
N/A
N/A
N/A
6 SPY KIDS: ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD
Weinstein / Dimension

3,305		 $1,590,000

+58.4% / $481
$17,573,000 / 8
N/A
N/A
N/A
7 THE SMURFS
Sony / Columbia

2,861		 $1,250,000

+39.7% / $437
$122,443,000 / 29
N/A
N/A
N/A
8 CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE.
Warner Bros.

1,577		 $1,000,000

+75% / $634
$67,624,000 / 29
N/A
N/A
N/A
9 FRIGHT NIGHT (2011)
Buena Vista

3,114		 $971,000

+55.1% / $312
$12,150,000 / 8
N/A
N/A
N/A
10 CONAN THE BARBARIAN (2011)
Lionsgate

3,015		 $930,000

+39.2% / $308
$14,406,000 / 8
N/A
N/A
N/A


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I LOVE GIGGS on 28 August 2011

Weekend Estimates

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count /Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 1 The Help BV $14,333,000 -28.4% 2,778 +88 $5,159 $96,630,000 $25 3
2 N Colombiana TriS $10,300,000 - 2,614 - $3,940 $10,300,000 $40 1
3 N Don't Be Afraid of the Dark FD $8,689,000 - 2,760 - $3,148 $8,689,000 $25 1
4 2 Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $8,650,000 -46.3% 3,374 -97 $2,564 $148,456,000 $93 4
5 N Our Idiot Brother Wein. $6,588,000 - 2,555 - $2,578 $6,588,000 $5 1
6 3 Spy Kids: All the Time in the World W/Dim. $5,727,000 -50.8% 3,305 +10 $1,733 $21,710,000 $27 2
7 5 The Smurfs Sony $4,800,000 -38.5% 2,861 -196 $1,678 $125,993,000 $110 5
8 4 Conan the Barbarian (2011) LGF $3,100,000 -69.1% 3,015 - $1,028 $16,576,000 $90 2
9 6 Fright Night (2011) BV $3,029,000 -60.7% 3,114 - $973 $14,207,000 $30 2
10 10 Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB $2,905,000 -39.4% 1,577 -363 $1,842 $69,529,000 $50 5


I LOVE GIGGS on 28 August 2011

Weekend Report: No Downgrade for Hurricane 'Help'

The Help seemed relatively unfazed by Hurricane Irene over the weekend, while the three new nationwide releases Colombiana, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark andOur Idiot Brother were blown away. The drama packed an estimated $14.3 million, down just 28 percent from last weekend, lifting its total to $96.6 million in 19 days, surpassing the final gross of Julie & Julia.

The weekend as a whole, though, was the second-slowest of the year so far, ahead of only Super Bowl weekend (Feb. 4-6), but business was poised to flounder, hurricane or no.

Colombiana was the most successful debut with an estimated $10.3 million on approximately 2,900 screens at 2,614 locations. On the bright side, it improved on the $9.4 million first weekend of Zoe Saldana's last action turn in the ensemble The Losers as well as producer Luc Besson's last action movie, From Paris with Love ($8.2 million), but it was otherwise tepid as late August action movies often are. Distributor Sony Pictures' exit polling indicated that 57 percent of the audience was female (unusual for the genre), while 65 percent was age 25 years and older.

Don't Be Afraid of the Dark disappointed with an estimated $8.7 million at 2,760 nearly single-screen locations. That was a low debut gross for a supernatural horror movie and trailed distributor FilmDistrict's previous release Insidious ($13.3 million). In fact, in the past three years, the sub-genre has seen only two worse starts (Case 39 and The Haunting of Molly Hartley). FilmDistrict reported females under 25 years old and Latino-populated markets as the movie's strongest contingents.

Our Idiot Brother stumbled into fifth place with an estimated $6.6 million at 2,555 single-screen locations. The opening was worse than The Switch's $8.7 million last August. Distributor The Weinstein Company's research showed that 55 percent of the audience was female and 70 percent was age 25 years and older.

Even without a hurricane on the East Coast to contend with, this crop of new releases was always going to be modest at best, though Irene has given Hollywood a convenient excuse. These movies paled compared to the ones on the same weekend last year, Takers and The Last Exorcism, which respectively drew $20.5 million and $20.4 million. The major nationwide holdovers may be a good indicator of Irene's impact, and they were down 50 percent on average, compared to 47 percent last year.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes ranked fourth with an estimated $8.65 million, falling a bit harder than last weekend (46 percent versus 42 percent). Its total climbed to $148.5 million in 22 days, leaping past X-Men: First Class.

Last weekend's flops showed no traction. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World tumbled 51 percent to an estimated $5.7 million for a paltry $21.7 million sum in ten days. Conan the Barbarian crumbled 69 percent to an estimated $3.1, mustering just $16.6 million in ten days. Fright Night bled 61 percent to an estimated $3 million for an anemic $14.2 million tally in ten days.