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Forums - Sales - If blu-ray wins? Will it affect the console war?

Recently at my local news station they discussed what format to buy HD DVD or blu-ray since everyone is  upgrading to HD. They added that blu-ray on paper is the better format, but on HD TV its the same in picture quality. They also said with ps3 selling well blu-ray has the advantage, and they also added that its warner bros that will decide the winning format, the guy also added that the winner of the foramt war will achieve huge profits.

Now if blu-ray wins this year, and HD DVD becomes obsolete "THIS YEAR" will it affect the console war?



 

 2008 end of year predictions:

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360: 25M

wii: 40M

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If Blu-Ray wins than it will raise the PS3 sales.

If HD-DVD wins than I don't think much will change.



zackblue said:

Recently at my local news station they discussed what format to buy HD DVD or blu-ray since everyone is upgrading to HD. They added that blu-ray on paper is the better format, but on HD TV its the same in picture quality. They also said with ps3 selling well blu-ray has the advantage, and they also added that its warner bros that will decide the winning format, the guy also added that the winner of the foramt war will achieve huge profits.

Now if blu-ray wins this year, and HD DVD becomes obsolete "THIS YEAR" will it affect the console war?


It's not going to happen. If Warner Bros makes an announcement and goes to one side, that's the only thing that will happen this year, and it won't mean anything this year for either format (other than Warner bros not being available on the other format).

DVD will continue with the lion's share of the market and the profitable spot in the market this year. HD content will continue to be a future product for the vast, vast majority of people.

Even if BD won today, it would only slightly affect the console war for the following reasons:

(1) most people don't know that DVD isn't HD and couldn't see the difference between BD/HD and DVD anyhow

(2) most people are unwilling to pay the difference between disc costs since they don't understand why there is a difference.

Neither is winning anytime soon. That's just how it is. And even if there was a winner, it would continue to be adopted at a glacial rate.

Blu Ray was included with the PS3 primarily to sell Blu Ray, not primarily to sell PS3s.  The disc format market is extremely profitable: DVDs bring in huge profits for movies, often times bigger than their box office profits.  If Sony could exclusively get the royalties to the next format it would be more lukrative than the video game market is currently.



By the time either format wins the winning player will be a lower price than the PS3 so no, it really won't help the PS3 all that much if BluRay wins.

Remember, this isn't like the PS2 and the DVD because it was clear that DVD was something that people wanted and something that people wanted to buy right off the bat.



i dont think it will affect the console war.. not until the next generation of consoles anyway...dont quote me on this but i think things like dvd and blu ray and hd dvd are proprietory things which means that the company( or group of companies) that wins seeps a lump sum on it for the entirety of its life



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zackblue said:

Recently at my local news station they discussed what format to buy HD DVD or blu-ray since everyone is upgrading to HD. They added that blu-ray on paper is the better format, but on HD TV its the same in picture quality. They also said with ps3 selling well blu-ray has the advantage, and they also added that its warner bros that will decide the winning format, the guy also added that the winner of the foramt war will achieve huge profits.

Now if blu-ray wins this year, and HD DVD becomes obsolete "THIS YEAR" will it affect the console war?


Bolded the false assumption.

Lots of people won't have an HD TV for quite some time, and lots of people with an HD TV still don't have/know about/care about HD signals. DVD will be the dominant standard for at least three more years, by which time this console generation will be winding down.

If Blu-ray vanquishes HD-DVD, it will be an advantage, but not a decisive one. 



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Most people aren't upgrading to HD, they are merely getting flatsreens and care nothing for the format war



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

By the time people are ready to adopt one format over the other in large enough numbers to matter, standalone players will be sub-$150 and it won't matter one bit in the console war.




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famousringo said:
zackblue said:

Recently at my local news station they discussed what format to buy HD DVD or blu-ray since everyone is upgrading to HD. They added that blu-ray on paper is the better format, but on HD TV its the same in picture quality. They also said with ps3 selling well blu-ray has the advantage, and they also added that its warner bros that will decide the winning format, the guy also added that the winner of the foramt war will achieve huge profits.

Now if blu-ray wins this year, and HD DVD becomes obsolete "THIS YEAR" will it affect the console war?


Bolded the false assumption.

Lots of people won't have an HD TV for quite some time, and lots of people with an HD TV still don't have/know about/care about HD signals. DVD will be the dominant standard for at least three more years, by which time this console generation will be winding down.

If Blu-ray vanquishes HD-DVD, it will be an advantage, but not a decisive one.


Funny thing about that-- my parents just got a brand new spiffy 50" LCD TV and BluRay player with DirectTV HD and HDDVR...and they still record things in standard definition and still buy DVD's first. Why? Because they just don't know and only got all that stuff because the salesman was apparently awesome.

Blu-Ray could win. If it wins when there is a large market for high-def discs, then of course it will affect the market. More blu-ray = more PS3s sold = more support for PS3.

 

Personally I don't think there is much of a market for high-def discs. It's not even that people are smart enough to know (they're really not well informed) that downloads are the future. It's more a case of them not knowing what HD is. Just because a lot of people have HD sets these days doesn't mean people have a clue what it is and that high-def discs are out there. All new TVs sold today are HDs, which explains the rising attach rate.

 

So yes, these are the possible outcomes.