Blu-Ray could win. If it wins when there is a large market for high-def discs, then of course it will affect the market. More blu-ray = more PS3s sold = more support for PS3.
Personally I don't think there is much of a market for high-def discs. It's not even that people are smart enough to know (they're really not well informed) that downloads are the future. It's more a case of them not knowing what HD is. Just because a lot of people have HD sets these days doesn't mean people have a clue what it is and that high-def discs are out there. All new TVs sold today are HDs, which explains the rising attach rate.
So yes, these are the possible outcomes.







