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Forums - Movies Discussion - Weekend Estimates (Rise of the Planet of the Apes = $54m, Change-Up = $13.5m)

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count /Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 N Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $54,000,000 - 3,648 - $14,803 $54,000,000 $93 1
2 2 The Smurfs Sony $21,000,000 -41.0% 3,395 - $6,186 $76,202,000 $110 2
3 1 Cowboys & Aliens Uni. $15,748,000 -56.8% 3,754 +4 $4,195 $67,368,000 $163 2
4 N The Change-Up Uni. $13,502,000 - 2,913 - $4,635 $13,502,000 $52 1
5 3 Captain America: The First Avenger Par. $13,000,000 -49.1% 3,620 -95 $3,591 $143,182,000 $140 3
6 4 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $12,160,000 -44.7% 3,175 -970 $3,830 $342,801,000 - 4
7 5 Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB $12,100,000 -36.7% 3,020 - $4,007 $42,185,000 $50 2
8 6 Friends with Benefits SGem $4,700,000 -49.3% 2,398 -528 $1,960 $48,538,000 $35 3
9 7 Horrible Bosses WB (NL) $4,620,000 -35.7% 2,025 -485 $2,281 $105,162,000 $35 5
10 8 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $3,015,000 -50.5% 1,854 -750 $1,626 $344,173,000 $195 6



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Weekend Predictions: Will Apes Rise Above the Competition?

August begins with two wide releases, include one opening in well over 3,000 theaters, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, and one that's just below the saturation level,The Change-Up. This time last year, the one-two punch came from The Other Guys and Step Up 3D, which combined to earn just over $51 million. There are some who think Rise of the Planet of the Apes will earn that much by itself. That's a little too bullish for me, but it does suggest 2011 should extend its winning streak over 2010 to four weeks.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes is a... I don't know. Is it a remake? A reboot? A prequel? Re-adaptation? It's definitely connected to Planet of the Apes films, even if just tangentially. It tells the story of how apes could rise up and overthrow mankind, which would make it a prequel, but the story here doesn't match the original movies or the book they were inspired by. The original The Planet of the Apes was lauded as one of the best of the genre; however, later installments in the franchise were not greeted as warmly. Additionally, the more recent Planet of the Apes remake only earned mixed reviews and fell apart after an incredible opening. (It had the second-biggest opening weekend for the year, but only the tenth biggest domestic tally.) Fortunately, a crash and burn like that is unlikely, as the reviews are closer to the very original film's reviews than to most of the sequels. The buzz is also growing with the potential to reach $50 million during its opening weekend increasing. It probably won't get there, but $46 million is still a strong opening weekend, and with no major releases for the rest of summer, that should be enough to get to $100 million with ease.

Speaking of $100 million, it appears The Smurfs is heading for that milestone. After six days of release, the film had amassed over $50 million, and assuming the film avoids a 50% drop-off at the box office, it will be on pace to reach the century mark. Despite the terrible reviews, falling less than 40% seems more likely than falling more than 50%. That gives the film a range about about $18 million to $21 million over the weekend, with just under $20 million the safest bet. It might take a couple more weeks to get to $100 million, but it should get there.

The second wide release of the week is The Change-Up, a film from the same writer as The Hangover. That film earned strong reviews and broke records at the box office for an R-rated comedy. This film's reviews are weaker than The Hangover 2's reviews were. I was expecting Change-Up would earn at least 50% positive reviews and open in the low- to mid-$20 million range. Better than average legs would take care of the rest. However, with weak reviews, a $19 million opening weekend is more likely, plus the legs likely won't be there.

Cowboys and Aliens' path to $100 million is less sure, even though it opened faster and earned better reviews. Because of the direct competition and the genre, a 50% drop-off is virtually guaranteed. In fact, a 60% drop-off is not unlikely. That gives us a range of $15 million to $18 million. I'm going with fourth place and $17 million, which might be enough to get it to $100 million, eventually.

Captain America: The First Avenger should round out the top five with about $12 million over the weekend and lift its running tally to $142 million, which is more than it reportedly cost to make. Granted, it still has to take into account the exhibitioners' share and the P&A budget, but with good international numbers, it should break even by its initial push onto the home market. (And that's before taking into account merchandising.)

 

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($46,000,000)
2. The Smurfs: $18,000,000 - $21,000,000 ($19,750,000)
3. The Change-Up: ($19,000,000)
4. Cowboys and Aliens: $15,000,000 - $18,000,000 ($17,000,000)
5. Captain America: ($12,000,000)

 

Forecast: 'Apes' to Overrun the Weekend

 

This weekend, Rise of the Planet of the Apes swings on to nearly 5,600 screens at 3,648 locations, while The Change-Up gets freaky on close to 3,300 screens at 2,913 locations.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes is unleashed ten years after the last Apes movie, Planet of the Apes (2001). That picture had an enormous opening weekend in its day, drawing $68.5 million or the equivalent of $96.5 million adjusted for ticket-price inflation. Audience reaction was mixed, and the movie burnt out quickly, closing with $180 million (or the equivalent of over $253 million today). That movie was a remake of the famous 1968 Charlton Heston classic, whereas Rise is essentially a remake of the 1972 sequel Conquest of the Planet of the Apes, which had a fraction of the popularity of the original.

Backed by action-packed marketing that clearly delineates the movie's experiment-gone-awry creature feature premise and spectacle, Rise of the Planet of the Apes' appeal recalls past hits like I, Robot and District 9. FromPlanet of the Apes to King Kong to even Congo, ape thrills seem to resonate with the public as well. On the down side, in addition to the franchise's long dormancy and flame-out the last time, Rise doesn't offer a human character to get behind (a marginalized James Francodoesn't cut it). In the original and its remake, the audience enters the ape world through the eyes of a human.

Countering the ApesThe Change-Up puts a ribald twist on the body switch comedy by having family man Jason Bateman trade bodies with swinging bachelor Ryan Reynolds. Body switch movies typically appeal as family movies, but Change-Up eschews that audience, aiming to relate as a party movie as well as a wish fulfillment for adults who might think the grass is greener on the other side. Problem is that the bodies being switched are roughly the same physically, when successful body switch movies of the past had far more extreme changes.

The Change-Up's marketing has basically been "switch happens," then cut to some bawdy, gross-out gags, instead of building up the impetus and raising the stakes. For instance, Reynolds' motivation for wanting Bateman's life was not shown, so then it seems like the movie's about Bateman's character living it up, but that's not explored either. What's more, the married guy versus swinging bachelor premise screams generic Hollywood staple, and it doesn't help that Bateman was in a movie called The Switch last August. The movie's second redband trailer showed more promise, touching on Reynolds' character more, but it may be too little, too late.

Box Office Mojo's "when will you see it" reader polling, Rise of the Planet of the Apes has grabbed nearly 36 percent for opening weekend. While that was a bit higher than Cowboys & Aliens last week, it seemed a little cool for this type of movie: at the same point, Super 8 had 47.1 percent, Battle: Los Angeles had 44.8 percent and District 9 had 46.2 percent. On the other hand, the last big action movie released on the first weekend of August, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra in 2009, had 36.4 percent and ended up grossing $54.7 million. The Change-Up was comparatively flaccid with its 9.6 percent opening weekend score, which was about the same asHall Pass.

Though Cowboys & Aliens edged out The Smurfs last weekend in their debutsSmurfs should come out ahead this weekend: it's thoroughly out-paced Cowboys on the weekdays, and its genre is more conducive to longer runs. Crazy, Stupid, Love is tracking for a solid second-weekend hold, while Captain America: The First Avenger and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 should slow their rates of descent.

The Forecast, Aug. 5-7
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $45 million
2. The Smurfs - $18.5 million
3. Cowboys & Aliens - $16 million
4. Captain America: The First Avenger - $14 million
5. The Change-Up - $13.5 million
6. Crazy, Stupid, Love. - $12.5 million 
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $11.5 million

Bar for Success
Rise of the Planet of the Apes is a reboot of a long dormant franchise, lacks human stars and is essentially a remake of one of the lesser Apes sequels, unlike the 2001 remake of the flagship movie. Therefore, it doesn't have the same pressure to perform as, say, X-Men: First Class. If it can open to around $40 million or as much asDistrict 9 or Hollow Man (adjusted for ticket-price inflation), that would be fine. Meanwhile, The Change-Upneeds to hit close to $20 million, the average of its comps, to get a pass.



wow!! Rise of the Planet of Apes did a lot better than what I expected!



Friday Report: 'Apes' Rise

On Friday, Rise of the Planet of the Apes handily won the box office battle, while The Change-Up attracted few bodies and The Smurfs extended its lead over Cowboys & Aliens.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes climbed to the top with an estimated $19.75 million on close to 5,400 screens at 3,648 locations, which was superior to such recent comps as District 9 ($14.2 million) and Terminator Salvation($14.8 million). The franchise reboot's launch even grossed more than I, Robot's $18.1 million (though sold fewer tickets) and wasn't far off from X-Men: First Class's $21.4 million earlier this summer. However, it was beneathPlanet of the Apes (2001)'s $24.6 million ($34.7 million adjusted for ticket price inflation) from ten years ago, as it should be considering it didn't cover the franchise's most iconic territory.

The trajectories of past similar movies suggest that Ride of the Planet of the Apes is headed for $52-57 million this weekend.

It was a freaky Friday for The Change-Up, which opened in fourth with a relatively soft estimated $4.75 million on around 3,300 screens at 2,913 locations (suggesting around $13 million for the weekend). That was a far cry from the summer's other R-rated comedies, including evenFriends with Benefits. Despite the attempt at a raunchy twist on the body switch comedy, Change-Up also fell far short of the recent body-switch comedies 17 Again ($9.4 million), 13 Going on 30 ($7.4 million) and Freaky Fridayeven before adjusting for ticket-price inflation.

Ranking second, The Smurfs dipped 55 percent from last Friday to an estimated $5.95 million, tracking similarly toG-ForceCowboys & Aliens wrangled third place with an estimated $4.75 million (just a thousand more thanChange-Up), collapsing by 64 percent. The two movies' respective eight-day tallies were $61.2 million and $56.4 million.

Captain American: The First Avenger's neck-and-neck battle with Thor continued. Captain gained ground on the weekdays, but Thor's mightier weekend numbers have kept it slightly ahead. Rounding out the Top Five,Captain was off 52 percent to an estimated $3.75 million for a $133.9 million sum in 15 days, compared to Thor's $134.3 million at the same point.

Crazy, Stupid, Love. was right on Captain's heels with $3.73 million, dropping 43 percent for a $33.8 million total in eight days. Meanwhile, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 again hewed closely to the previous July Potters, slowing 48 percent to an estimated $3.4 million for a whopping $334 million tally in 22 days.

 

Friday Estimates


MovieDistributorGenreGrossChangeThtrs.Per Thtr.Total GrossDays
1 (new) Rise of the Planet of the Apes 20th Century Fox Adventure $19,750,000   3,648 $5,414 $19,750,000 1
2 (1) The Smurfs Sony Pictures Adventure $5,864,000 +43.28% 3,395 $1,727 $61,066,000 8
3 (2) Cowboys and Aliens Universal Action $4,695,000 +49.04% 3,754 $1,251 $56,315,000 8
4 (new) The Change-Up Universal Comedy $4,677,000   2,913 $1,606 $4,677,000 1
5 (3) Captain America: The First Avenger Paramount Pictures Action $3,743,000 +37.89% 3,620 $1,034 $133,925,000 15
6 (5) Crazy, Stupid, Love Warner Bros. Comedy $3,700,000 +53.43% 3,020 $1,225 $33,785,000 8
7 (4) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II Warner Bros. Adventure $3,400,000 +30.00% 3,175 $1,071 $334,000,000 22
8 (6) Friends with Benefits Sony Pictures Romantic Comedy $1,450,000 +22.88% 2,398 $605 $45,290,000 15
9 (7) Horrible Bosses Warner Bros. Comedy $1,300,000 +37.92% 2,025 $642 $101,800,000 29
10 (8) Transformers: Dark of the Moon Paramount Pictures Action $913,000 +26.37% 1,854 $492 $342,071,000 38

 



Weekend Report: Hail the Conquering 'Apes'

Over the weekend, Rise of the Planet of the Apesswung in with a chest-beating debut, while The Change-Up was flung aside and The Smurfs stretched its lead over Cowboys & Aliens.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes climbed to the top with an estimated $54 million on approximately 5,400 screens at 3,648 locations, which ranked as the fifth highest-grossing August opening ever (but ninth normalized for ticket-price inflation). Among comparable movies, the franchise reboot's launch was superior to District 9's $37.4 million and Terminator Salvation's $42.6 million and close to G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra's $54.7 million (on the same weekend in 2009). It even grossed more than I, Robot's $52.2 million (though sold fewer tickets) and was just a hair lower than X-Men: First Class's $55.1 million earlier this summer.

Though Rise was beneath Planet of the Apes (2001)'s $68.5 million ($96.5 million adjusted for ticket price inflation), that was to be expected considering it didn't cover the franchise's most iconic territory and was essentially a remake of one of the fractionally popular sequels, Conquest of the Planet of the ApesRisealso had to overcome a ten-year franchise dormancy and the taint of audiences' mixed reaction to the Planetremake, but it was propelled by an on-point marketing campaign that packed plenty of ape thrills and recalled recent successes like I, RobotDistrict 9 and evenAvatar. Distributor 20th Century Fox's exit polling indicated that 54 percent of Rise's audience was male and 56 percent was age 25 years and older.

It was a freaky weekend for The Change-Up, and not in a good way. The comedy opened in fourth with a soft estimated $13.5 million on around 3,300 screens at 2,913 locations. That was a far cry from the summer's other R-rated comedies, including Friends with Benefits ($18.6 million). Despite the attempt at a raunchy twist on the body switch comedy, Change-Up also fell far short of the recent body-switch comedies 17 Again ($23.7 million),13 Going on 30 ($21.1 million) and Freaky Friday ($22.2 million) even before normalizing for ticket-price inflation. Distributor Universal Pictures' research showed that 59 percent of Change-Up's audience was female and 50 percent was age 30 years and older.

Ranking second, The Smurfs dipped 41 percent to an estimated $21 million (41 percent of which from 3D presentations), holding better than G-ForceHop and others at the same point. Cowboys & Aliens wrangled third place with an estimated $15.7 million, collapsing by 57 percent. The two movies' respective ten-day tallies were $76.2 million and $67.4 million.

Captain American: The First Avenger's neck-and-neck battle with Thor for summer superhero supremacy continued. Captain gained ground on the weekdays, but Thor's mightier weekend numbers have kept it slightly ahead. Rounding out the Top Five, Captain was off 49 percent to an estimated $13 million for a $143.2 million sum in 17 days, compared to Thor's $145.4 million through the same point.

In sixth, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 held better than the previous July PottersOrder of the Phoenix and Half-Blood Prince, for the first time. Slowing 45 percent, Harry's last stand generated an estimated $12.16 million for a whopping $342.8 million tally in 24 days, and it will surpass Transformers: Dark of the Moon by Tuesday at the latest to become the top-grossing movie of 2011.

Meanwhile, Crazy, Stupid, Love. had a decent hold, easing 37 percent to an estimated $12.1 million for a $42.2 million total in ten days.



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Around-the-World Brief: 'Potter' Passes 'Rings'

With help from a strong opening in China, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 reached its final major milestone this weekend. On Sunday, it passed The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King to move up to third place on the all-time worldwide (domestic plus foreign) chart with $1.134 billion. It only trails James Cameron'sAvatar ($2.78 billion) and Titanic ($1.84 billion) but by insurmountable margins.

Deathly Hallows Part 2 earned an estimated $61.8 million from 61 markets, which included a very roughly-estimated $25.5 million debut in China. That's by-far the biggest Chinese opening ever for a Harry Potter movie. The movie's foreign total reached $791.1 million, and it will move past Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides in the next day or two to claim third place on the all-time foreign chart. It should finish with around $900 million overseas, which will push its worldwide total past $1.25 billion. 

It's important to note that while overseas ticket price inflation data is tricky to come by, Deathly Hallows Part 2 would obviously not rank third all-time in ticket sales. It's sold fewer tickets than Return of the KingHarry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone and many older movies as well. 

The Smurfs expanded to 42 territories this weekend (up from seven last weekend) and earned an impressive $45.2 million. It took first place in most of its markets, including Brazil ($6.65 million), France ($5.93 million), Mexico ($5.53 million) and Germany ($5.43 million). Distributor Sony Pictures International emphasized that Smurfs opened ahead of Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel in many of its territories. That movie ended up with over $223 million overseas, though it had the advantage of playing through the holidays. Including its openings last weekend, Smurfs has already made $52.8 million overseas.

Captain America: The First Avenger dipped 45 percent to $27.5 million from 41 markets. It opened to $2.5 million in Spain, which wasn't impressive, and $1.2 million in Hong Kong. It also had solid holdover performances in Brazil ($4.2 million), Mexico ($3.2 million), the United Kingdom ($2.3 million), Australia ($2.1 million) and Russia ($1.9 million). It has now made $103 million overseas for a worldwide total of $246 million.

Corresponding with its domestic opening, Rise of the Planet of the Apes debuted to $23.4 million in 25 markets. It only opened in a few major territories, scoring $5.2 million in Spain, $5.1 million in Australia and $5 million in Russia. It adds 15 regions next weekend, including the U.K., France and Germany. 

Cars 2 kept rolling overseas, grossing an estimated $20.1 million from 41 territories for a total of $258.4 million. Early last week it passed the original Cars's $217.9 million total, and it remains 60 percent ahead of that movie in comparable territories.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon continued its remarkable run with an estimated $17.5 million from 62 markets. Its top two territories were China ($6.9 million) and Japan ($4.4 million), and its overseas total reached $693.5 million. That brought its worldwide total to $1.038 billion, and it inched ahead of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides to rank seventh all-time and second on the year behind Harry Potter

After some quiet weekends, Super 8 expanded in to a few key markets and burst back on to the charts. It earned $15.5 million from 49 territories thanks to decent debuts in France ($5 million), the U.K. ($3.3 million), Mexico ($2.2 million) and Germany ($2 million). Its foreign total reached $76.5 million for a worldwide total of over $200 million. 



I have been really looking forward to Rise of the Planet of the Apes but I am also accutely aware it will probably dissapoint me as I am definately a fan of the early Planet of the Apes films.

Struggling to get excited about the Cowboys and Aliens but will probably watch and I am hoping somebody else takes my boy to the Smurfs.



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Winner of the 2010 VGC Holiday sales prediction thread with an Average 1.6% accuracy rating. I am indeed awesome.

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