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Forums - Sales - What are your 'John Lucas' predictions for the new year?

@Gobias, his biggest prediction whose time has passed so far, that the Wii would sell 20 million by year's end, was off by 800,000. That seems like a lot, but he was off by a mere 3%. A small number like that can be attributed to price drops and aggressive marketing by the competition, so if things stayed the way they were, he probably would have been right.

And it's not that we think he's psychic or anything, the OP just asked what our insane 'John Lucas' predictions were for next year.



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MrPickles said:
@Gobias, his biggest prediction whose time has passed so far, that the Wii would sell 20 million by year's end, was off by 800,000. That seems like a lot, but he was off by a mere 3%. A small number like that can be attributed to price drops and aggressive marketing by the competition, so if things stayed the way they were, he probably would have been right.

And it's not that we think he's psychic or anything, the OP just asked what our insane 'John Lucas' predictions were for next year.

 less than 800K, Japan hasn't been counted, and sunday and monday haven't been counted



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

JL definitely is given more credit than he deserves by some people but those people number far fewer than those who give him too little credit.

@MrPickles,

Once Japan numbers are in it will only be ~400k off.



To Each Man, Responsibility

@Sqrl:

If that ends up being the case, then JL will only have been 1.5% off, a perfectly excusable margin of error, especially given the circumstances I mentioned above.



MrPickles said:
@Sqrl:

If that ends up being the case, then JL will only have been 1.5% off, a perfectly excusable margin of error, especially given the circumstances I mentioned above.

 Given how far in advance the prediction was made I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on this one even if it was only his "minimum" number.



To Each Man, Responsibility
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I would add in 20-30% of the next weeks sales because 2 days of this week will be in 07 still. Japan will be huge again next week so that could be as many 150-200k to add onto 2007 which would put him around 200k off..... you really could not ask for it to be any closer than that... and I would bet shipment number are at 20mil or a little above.



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

MrPickles said:
@Sqrl:

If that ends up being the case, then JL will only have been 1.5% off, a perfectly excusable margin of error, especially given the circumstances I mentioned above.

He will have been extremely close on this prediction, while I will have actually overshot Wii sales at 20.75M (IIRC), but to be fair, you can't really measure it as 1.5% of 20 million unless he made the prediction when sales stood at 0. Still, great prediction. One of two he's been extremely close on and deserves credit for.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

@ Erik:

What I meant by the 1.5% was that, if the approximately 600thousand more was added as we talked about (From Japan last week and the first couple days of this week), then Wii would be at 19.8 million. 19.8 is 98.5% of 20, so he would only be 1.5% off, despite the upsets from the competition.



DMeisterJ said:
My John Lucas Prediction:

dddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

ddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

ddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

ddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

Sony will drop the price of the PS3 to $.99

Halo 3 will become an PS3 exclusive and be totally controlled by the PS Eye

Teh Pow3r of teh C3Ll will take over the world, forcing us all to become Sony Fanboys, and burining every Nintendo product/fanboy in sight.

John Lucas will be right on all of his predictions

John Lucas

I think what you meant was

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blablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablablabla

 Sony will drop the price of the PS3 to $.99

Halo 3 will become an PS3 exclusive and be totally controlled by the PS Eye

Teh Pow3r of teh C3Ll will take over the world, forcing us all to become Sony Fanboys, and burining every Nintendo product/fanboy in sight.

John Lucas will be right on all of his predictions

John Lucas

 (although his predictions do make an interesting read)

 



Leo-J will actually sit down and play a Wii, save up his money, and buy one. He will then study the history of gaming and go back to the greatest games of the past and play them and will be a better person for it.

Now for gaming:

360 will sell 2 Million in Japan next year.
PS3 will sell less than 10 Mil next year.
Wii will get a MAJOR game developed specifically for it. (ie Final Fantasy, GTA, etc.)
DS will double PSP sales WW.
E3 will show off new colors for Wii, and upon release next Christmas, will lead to 3 million Wiis sold in one week WW.

And the finale:

Mother 3 will be translated and released for GBA for the US :o



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