I'm really curious about how the sales on the Wii will hold up over the next 12 months.

First person to say Blue Ocean in a responcs gets to be ignored untill I forget about the infringment.

Second. I am not saying the Wii is gonna fail. Far from it, but my question is how big of a success will the PS3 be this summer.

For anyone who says the PS3 will sell less than 20million units this generation is crazy, the games announced for the PS3 are already better than the entire lineup of GameCube games, and it sold just over 20. 2007 will be a bigger year for the PS3, than 2001-2006 was for the GameCube. (in terms of great game releases)

It's gonna be a real question on how the PS3 is accepted this fall/winter, and what people think of it. As if the PS3 takes off like a rocket this holiday. The Wii will NOT dominate this generation. If the PS3 does not, the Wii will dominate for at least 1 more year, and then holiday 2008 will be the last straw for sony, and if they cant make a comeback in holiday 2008, the Wii will win this round. However the number of consoles sold even if the PS3 is a failure, should be roughly 30million worldwide. 

Kwaad said: I'm really curious about how the sales on the Wii will hold up over the next 12 months. First person to say Blue Ocean in a responcs gets to be ignored untill I forget about the infringment. Second. I am not saying the Wii is gonna fail. Far from it, but my question is how big of a success will the PS3 be this summer. For anyone who says the PS3 will sell less than 20million units this generation is crazy, the games announced for the PS3 are already better than the entire lineup of GameCube games, and it sold just over 20. 2007 will be a bigger year for the PS3, than 2001-2006 was for the GameCube. (in terms of great game releases) It's gonna be a real question on how the PS3 is accepted this fall/winter, and what people think of it. As if the PS3 takes off like a rocket this holiday. The Wii will NOT dominate this generation. If the PS3 does not, the Wii will dominate for at least 1 more year, and then holiday 2008 will be the last straw for sony, and if they cant make a comeback in holiday 2008, the Wii will win this round. However the number of consoles sold even if the PS3 is a failure, should be roughly 30million worldwide.

 So blue ocean is an infringiement, but thinking the Wii's sales can't last magically makes it not last long.

 Sorry. It doesn't work that way.

Wii Health will sell more units than GTAIV over its lifetime.

S-L-I-P said: When the PS3 price drops can anyone here honestly beleive it won't sell? Whats the biggest factor from stopping Sony from selling.. I'll give you a hint it isnt the competition.. its the PRICE! So if Sony cannot make a turnaround when the system has a steady flow of games.. which i beleive starts in july-august and carries all the way through to 2009.. But come on people be real..... If the PS3 can survive long enough for blu-ray player prices to drop the system itself will have a price drop.. who here wouldnt buy a PS3 for 400-500$? After a few years 200-300$... With the first party support they have even the eroding third party support.. they will still stand tall.. Its not a matter of being a MS fanboy or a Nintendo fanboy or even a Sony fanboy... Ask yourself this question... Do you think the PS3 will stay at 600$ forever? and when the price does drop how do you think it will do then?   * Edit: Its a matter of logic.... Although the competition slightly affects the sales the inflated 360 sales really doesnt give us a clue where they stand.... of course Nintendo will sell well this generation they brought something innovative to the table but the PS3 and Wii are different styles of gameplay... 1: NINTENDO + SONY 2: Microsoft

As we learned with the Gamecube & XBox, price drops don't necessarily mean the golden master key.

They provide a small boost but ultimately will not change the hierarchy that's set in the early goings.

The actual competition period is actually quite small every generation and I'm wondering if the outcome is already decided NOW. Once the hierarchy is set then price drops open a little leeway but ultimately make little difference into turning things around. They end up being maintaining strategies rather than advancing strategies. And with two competitors any price drop will be met by one or both nullifying the effect of the drop.

PS3 can't drop too much and XBox 360 is willing to undercut themselves to make Sony look bad if need be. Fact is the PS3 is in between a rock and a hardplace right now and I'm gonna be straight with you: I don't see the system making it out of the year 2009 alive.

John Lucas 

S-L-I-P said: Pk9394 said: the ps3 will never reach 100 million mark here is why: Looking at the install base of ps2 (130 mil) AAA titles sold less than 5% of the total install base, we can safely assume there are huge percentage of ppl bought the ps2 and modify it to play pirated games. we cant ignore how big this partion of users contributed to the 130 million install base of ps2. now lets take a look at the cost of those pirated user for ps2 ps2 $200 + dvd burner 100$ + $100 mod fee = $400 a well mass market price, these price seem high because its base on when the ps2 was around $200 thats when the system really start selling huge and dvd burner price start to plummet. now if those pirated users switch to ps3: ps3 $600 + Blue Ray burner(this wont be cheap) + mod fee = (estimate)1.5k range price range for all those pirated user is too much, and if a blank BR discs cost like $10 thats alot of $$$. and I'm not even account in the price a HDTV, lets just assume these cheap pirated user play on their cheap standard TVs. even though these user never bought games, but they are significantly large to help boost the install base and convince 3rd party dev. to make game for the console. According to you the AAA titles sold % of the PS2's.. can you show me this 5%?.. and how many users bought it for pirated games? and when you show me that include where you got it... So according to you 100million+ PS2's sold because of pirated...

Well, the number of pirated PS2's is big i suppose given the fact that even in Greece the 99.9% of PS2's are modded. But we can't know, and Pk9394, i assure that even on a cheap SDTV the PS3 looks GORGEOUS! I bought Resistance (a launch game) and i'm shocked by its look on my 50$ 14" SDTV. So i don't think the HDTV penetration will affect PS3 sells. The only thing stoping PS3 is it's price and its horrible PR. (and maybe the Wii)

 

blowfish said: omgwtfbbq said: why is it that Sony fanboys all say "The PS3 has no good games" when they try to defend how poorly the PS3 is doing, yet they then say "The PS3 has all the best games" when they try to defend how great the PS3 is? Does it have all the good games? Or no good games? You can't have it both ways! I'm sorry, but the PS3 has no good games argument is finished, the PS3 games have been released, and it's still not selling. Yet these same people are saying "The Wii has no good games" are not saying "look how well the Wii is selling despite the fact that there aren't any good games! Just wait until they release their big guns!" @blowfish Sony won the last two generations by appealing to those exact same gamers that Nintendo are appealing to. The racer fans, the FPS fans, the RPG fans, probably number around 50 million, tops. Most of Playstation sales went to those people who bought it for a few fun games (buzz, singstar, dance, GTA, whatever), they probably owned about 3 games, spent a total of $200 on it, and played for around 20 hours all up. Either that or parents who bought it for their kids to shut them up for an hour. These people are NOT going to spend $600 on a console Sorry but the hardcore demographic is not as large as everyone claims it to be. Sony will NOT sell 100 million consoles and unless they drop their price very quickly will not come first. To answer you question the ps3 does have some good games but it doesn't have a single one of the ps2's top 15 exclusive franchises released for it yet. When some of those games start to come out then that will improve things for the ps3. Whilst the ps3 has zero of it's predecessors top 15 exclusives the wii already has zelda and paper mario and the 360 has project gotham racing, elder scrolls, dead or alive and call of duty 2. The ps2 has an attach rate of over 10 worldwide, most people didnt just by 3 games. The ps3 still has gta, singstar and buzz, the wii doesn't. The wii can corner the mini game and kids game market but that won't sell you 100+ million console or win you the console war.

but you're saying that PS3 has better games than Wii. So how are the games an issue for the PS3 but not the Wii?

The PS2 has a high attach rate because there are the hardcore gamers who buy HEAPS of games. I know someone who owns a PS2. He doesn't have the biggest collection of games I've ever seen, but he has a lot of games, around 20. Many have much more. This makes up for the probably 50% of PS2 owners who own less than 5 games. I'm not saying the hardcore market is small, it's not small. But it is NOT 100 million people. And the number of people willing to pay $300 for a games console are smaller than people on these boards think.

The PS3 has singstar, buzz, and GTA? Funny, I didn't see them on the store shelves. We must be behind in Australia again ;)  Even if they never go to the Wii, it doesn't matter, because there will be new games and franchises that will take advantage of the fact that the Wii is selling well and is cheap.

I'm sorry, but the casual gamers are the ones that get your console to 100 million, not the hardcore. 

blowfish said: Cipherr said: ============ Nintendo's best selling console, when they had a commanding monopoly, was 60 million units. They have yet to prove Wii is more than just a fad. If they can keep this system going for more than a couple years, maybe we can say otherwise, but as it stands now, there is no reason to believe Nintendo can or will even hit 60 million, let alone 100 million. ============ Sometimes I wonder if some people even read the things they write or just start typing blindly. How do you say something like the above, yet stand firm on the idea that Sony can turn things around on a dime? I mean, basically whats being said here is that Nintendo has yet to prove it can succeed in staying anywhere near as stable sales wise as they have so far, despite the trending, and record breaking they are currently enjoying. Then in the same breathe saying that is IS reasonable to believe that Sony, who is hitting all times lows left and right trending worse than the last gen failure the GC will rise above all, achieving something never before done in console history to regain the #1 spot? Im sorry, its just a bit of lunacy to throw so much weight behind the idea that the console that is breaking records left and right with unbelievable demand that shows no signs of slowing down is going to somehow, someday halt, and the console that is on life support is going to spring from the ashes like a phoenix and destroy everything in its path. You can most definitely say that its POSSIBLE, because it certainly is. But for those of you that are going way overboard by saying theres no way that the Wii can last despite its stellar performance then going on to say theres no way the PS3 wont rise to #1 despite its horrible performance, I hold you guys in the same space as the crazy Nintendo fans of last gen that ignored reality for about 4 and a half years and jumped from release to release claiming it to be the game that would "right the ship". The same type of behavior we have already seen with the "Wait until VF5" or "Wait until Motorstorm" "Wait for Gundam!" and don't forget "Wait until March NPD, LBP and Home announcements will boost demand!". Now we are in the "Wait until Lair" "Wait until MGS" "Wait until FFantasy" stages. I cant help but feel I'm watching a rerun. Ive seen all of this before. The problem with what your saying and what alot of nintendo fanboys fail to understand is you can't sell 100+ million consoles unless you appeal to all demographics. The wii right now does not cater for online gaming and even tho it will eventually it won't be in the same league as the 360 or even the ps3. It doesnt appeal to racing enthusiasts, fps fans, 3d fighter fans, rts fans or mature games fans. And before anybody jumps in and tries to claim the wii has excite truck so their for it appeals to racing enthusiasts just stop right their. 1 or 2 games that to begin with aren't that good anyway doesn't now mean that console is sorted for a genre. The wii right now appeals to nintendo fans, mini game/non game fans and kids. Those 3 genres aren't enough to get the wii to over 100+ million let alone win the console war. The xbox360 is going to get a price drop and halo will be out soon, its biggest franchise and that will boost sales. The ps3 will also get a price drop but so far none of the ps2's top 15 exclusive games from last generation have come out for the ps3 yet. How can anybody judge the ps3 without any of its proven top games coming out?? People need to step back and get a reality check.

And I'm going to take your own logic and throw it right back into your face. Because if we take things YOUR way the PS3 is destined to fail, horribly. You yourself are judging what the Wii "caters" to STRICTLY by what it has released in the first 5 months of its lifespan ALONE. So if we are making sweeping judgments based ONLY on what we have seen so far, the PS3 will struggle in Japan until the end of this generation, and will continue to be bested by the GBA in the US? You are judging the Wii's demographic based ONLY on what has been released in the first 5 month when a consoles lifespan is over 5 bloody years! The FACT of the matter is you are the one wrapped up in the 'console wars' not me. You are living in a fantasy land where the CONSOLE itself decides its demographic, and you couldnt be more wrong. The software decides which demographic the console is catered towards NOT the other way around. And as of right now its far FAR too early to tell where the software is going to go a year from now (especially with insane stuff like DQ9 going to the DS, you never know WHATS going to happen nowadays). History in this industry tells us major 3rd party support rallies behind the hardware sold market leader. This is what the Nintendo fans cling to as assurance for Wii domination, and rightfully so. However, this gen there are MAJOR differences, as with the consoles being somewhat segmented because of the lack of horsepower with the Wii. Will that be enough to keep 3rd parties away despite the Wii becoming the WW hardware leader? This is the idea most Sony and MS fans are questioning, and rightfully so as well. We don't have enough information for any of this yet. But it is definitely leaning one way a little more than the other at this point. Another thing you go on to say is that a console cannot sell 100 million without appealing to EVERY demographic. Which is ludicrous considering no console has EVER appealed to EVERY demographic in existence, maybe you were exaggerating, but its hard to tell on these boards. What you MEANT to say is that NO console can sell 100 million without catering to the casual market. The casual market is the largest of the pie by far. The racing fighting hardcore enthusiast you are talking about are the minority. There are FAR more people out there that don't play games at ALL than there are that do. If one could reach into those areas, there are tons of opportunities to sell many more consoles than ever. We believe this is what Nintendo is trying to do. Will they manage to pull it off? I doubt it personally, but whatever, its working for them so far so more power to them. And finally please stop with the "Don't judge PS3 before any of its big guns drop!" Because none of the 3 companies have dropped any of their BIG guns yet except for GoW on MS side. Please RE READ the previous statement and let it sink in. GoW Zelda and Resistance is ALL we have seen this gen. Sony isnt the only one sitting on a stack of 3+ million worldwide selling IP's just laying in the wake waiting to give console sales a shot in the arm mate, so please stop acting like thats the case. Besides, you don't seem to have a problem judging the Wii without its large titles released. The hypocrisy is giving me a headache.

Well said Cipherr ! (your 2 last posts were very pleasant to read).

I would just had a number : how many DVD players are there in the world (can't remember) ? 1 billion ? 2 billions ? 

Like you said, the market, even with 100-150 millions home console sold last gen is far from saturation ... Nintendo is currently speaking to hundred of millions of potential consumers.

Will they succeed is ATM another story.

 OTOH, Sony and Microsoft are stuck to the same audience ...

 

Kwaad said: I'm really curious about how the sales on the Wii will hold up over the next 12 months. First person to say Blue Ocean in a responcs gets to be ignored untill I forget about the infringment. Second. I am not saying the Wii is gonna fail. Far from it, but my question is how big of a success will the PS3 be this summer. For anyone who says the PS3 will sell less than 20million units this generation is crazy, the games announced for the PS3 are already better than the entire lineup of GameCube games, and it sold just over 20. 2007 will be a bigger year for the PS3, than 2001-2006 was for the GameCube. (in terms of great game releases) It's gonna be a real question on how the PS3 is accepted this fall/winter, and what people think of it. As if the PS3 takes off like a rocket this holiday. The Wii will NOT dominate this generation. If the PS3 does not, the Wii will dominate for at least 1 more year, and then holiday 2008 will be the last straw for sony, and if they cant make a comeback in holiday 2008, the Wii will win this round. However the number of consoles sold even if the PS3 is a failure, should be roughly 30million worldwide.

 

Let's see the result by next year the same time. I don't thinks PS3 will sell less than 20 milion units but also I don't think PS3 can reach 40 million units because of those negative factor in terms of price, marketing, game development situation etc.

blowfish said: To answer you question the ps3 does have some good games but it doesn't have a single one of the ps2's top 15 exclusive franchises released for it yet. When some of those games start to come out then that will improve things for the ps3. Whilst the ps3 has zero of it's predecessors top 15 exclusives the wii already has zelda and paper mario and the 360 has project gotham racing, elder scrolls, dead or alive and call of duty 2. The ps2 has an attach rate of over 10 worldwide, most people didnt just by 3 games. The ps3 still has gta, singstar and buzz, the wii doesn't. The wii can corner the mini game and kids game market but that won't sell you 100+ million console or win you the console war.

...and Wii only has one of their top selling franshises out yet, and you could buy that one on the Cube. I personally think that it is the new franshises that will win this war, Gears showed system seller power for xbox360, with the hype for motorstorm and resistance I can't understand why they couldn't do it. Paper Mario arrived two weeks ago, and so far hasn't been seen in EU.

When it comes to singstar: I know three persons that owns singstar, none would have paid 6000 SEK + for that experience. I would say that they wouldn't pay 4000 SEK+. All bought their PS2 for singstar alone, at under 2000 SEK. Do you relise that most possible PS3 have for at least a couple of year priced themselves out from the casual crowd? I mena we are talking about people that uses their machins as party machins, not hardcore gaiming every day.

Actully their is a big crowd that ony buy 3-5 games, because there is people like us in this forum that buys a lot more than 10 games per generation. In some of these threads some people have posted that they are owning more than 40 games. One 40 games player mean that there must be at least 6 persons that only bought 5 games to get an avarage tie ratio of 10. A 20 gamer would mean 2 gamers that only owns 5 games. Most hardcore people owns at least 20 games, or have bought 20 games and resold them to game shops. So there must be a big crowd of people that isn't buying that many games. Those people is called cauals

Wii can corner a lot of markets if they get the games, it is all about the software. Manhunt 2, No more heroes and RE:UC can make some hardcore lover of violence to buy the Wii as a second consol, that might lead to that it becomes the first one if Wii continue to get some games he want. I also think that games like Boogie and MySims could sell to the female players. If MySims can tapp only a fraction of the succes of the origional Sims series Wii have a million seller there. Wii will most probarly not gather all markets, but to say that they only can tapp kidd games and minigames is a little bit wrong. There is a lot of different games coming out, we have plattforms lover like me that could think of buying a Wii for Sonic, Super Paper Mario, Super Mario Galaxy and Dews Advanture. Racing fans is more or less recommended to stay with xbox360 or PS3 on the other hand. Only Excite Truck seems to have some standard yet. We have point and click advanture Treasure Island Z and more. We have the retro fans buying Wii for VC.