Nintendo will lead Japan for a while, but a couple million units won't get them very far, particularly as long as all people want are Wii Play/Sports/Zelda/Wario/Pokemon. I don't think Sony or Microsoft will take waggle seriously this generation. If they do go for it, it would be with the next generation. Regardless of how it does, they will probably implement it in some form, but not really make it a focus. Then again, as you said, it's really not that much of a focus on Wii for the most part. My point was that Nintendo owners didn't actually buy the Final Fantasy games. In Japan they did, but Final Fantasy was not a force in the west until Sony picked it up. Half the time it didn't even get released here, and Europe got screwed over every time, all because Nintendo, like most other Japanese companies, thought we were too stupid to appreciate games like that. Sony won't even hit what was its previous mass market price of $200 for 4 years. There's much life left in this system, perhaps even more life than the PS2 had. People do believe $600 is too much. They will believe $400 is just fine, and $200 will be a bargain, particularly when compared to the Wii at $150. I didn't say I was a Microsoft fanboy. I said if I had to pick a side to be fanboyish of, it would be Microsoft.

 If you can show me any game that you belive will sell those couple of millions for PS3 I would be very happy, because for the moment PS3 have game droughts as big as we GameCube owners had.

First I didn't say that it wasn't in focus I just named two games: So more than those we have Trauma Center, Red Steel, Rayman, Elebits, Super Monkey ball, Sonic, Super Swing Golf. That was from 3rd parties. Then we have Wario, Wii Sport, Wii Play and Excite truck.

Upcoming: At least treasure Island and Re:UC

Second: If your point was that they will use it next generation I do wounder how that would help PS3 against Wii.

So now it is Nintendos fault that SE didn't release Final Fantasy in Europe and USA? If a full blown Final Fantasy is released on Wii it will sell, simply because Final Fantasy fans will buy the system. It is not like fan base is locked to a system.

In four years from now xbox360 has been out for 5 years, don't you think that they will announce a new system by then? More than that shaving of 100 USD a year is pretty good cost reduction. Sony needs to make money to.

FFXIII could make up a million units by itself, and then some. Nintendo, as the publisher, was incapable of producing the numbers in the west on the Final Fantasy games. Sony came in and not only increased the US sales to 6 times their previous number, but also built a market in Europe, all while boosting numbers in Japan. I'd expect that around that 2011, yes, we will be seeing the announcement of a new Xbox. Sony will no doubt follow that up within a year or so. Even if PS4 does come out in 2012, PS3 would be able to sell well through 2014. With initial costs in the $800 range, $100/year should be pretty easy to come by. I'd expect them to be able to do at least $200 by the end off this year.

 I think the PS3 will will cost 200-250 in 4 years. And in 6, it will likely cost around 150.

I dont think the PS4 will come out for 8-10 years, because I dont think sony will go with another 600+$ console. (Unless they completely smash the Wii in 2009+.)

If the PS3 dosent have a wide lead, I think a cheaper console would be better. I say a 8-10 year console life, before the next one is very... easily done. The PS4 I would expect would cost 300-500$ at launch, and likely it would be 8x+ faster than the PS3. Now that means it's fab cost would be ~8x that of the PS3. So Sony will want to get Cell Processors for around 25$/each, (8 of them) and a new graphics chip for around 150$. And then sell the console off at 400$.

I dont think the PS4 will be... so far ahead of it's time. Not unless the PS3 kills the Wii. (It can still happen) 

If things continue as they have been for Sony why would people buy the system after 2011? Basically, if you project the PS3's lifetime sales from the initial 6 months (using historic data) you will end up with 20 Million to 30 Million consoles sold; third parties will mostly only port software and Sony will have an uphill battle to even provide adequate software to maintain sales levels (See Gamecube). In 2011 Microsoft (or Nintendo) will be able to release a system that is far more powerful than the PS3, for $200-$300 and (possibly) includes a hot new user interface.

If you sell poorly you die quickly ... Any chances for the PS3 to have an 8 year lifespan dies if it doesn't have a strong performance in its first 12 to 18 months.

FFXIII could make up a million units by itself, and then some.

Yes FFXIII will sell a lot of units in 2008, what you miss is that just because FFXIII arrives doesn't mean Wii will stop selling. More than FFXII has sold around 2.5 millions in Japan, when it arrives most possible will the lead for Nintendo be more than 2 millions.

Nintendo, as the publisher, was incapable of producing the numbers in the west on the Final Fantasy games. Sony came in and not only increased the US sales to 6 times their previous number, but also built a market in Europe, all while boosting numbers in Japan.

I didn't know that Nintendo published games for SE. If that is correct I am sorry.

I'd expect that around that 2011, yes, we will be seeing the announcement of a new Xbox. Sony will no doubt follow that up within a year or so. Even if PS4 does come out in 2012, PS3 would be able to sell well through 2014. With initial costs in the $800 range, $100/year should be pretty easy to come by. I'd expect them to be able to do at least $200 by the end off this year.

Again you seems to miss history, it is the winner that gets a long time support. If PS3 doesn't pass xbox360 and Wii at that point only sony will be left to support PS3. PS3 wont sell well through 2014 if Sony doesn't start selling now.

I know that what I wrote about can be easily confused with being a sony "fanboy", and if someone feels the need to label me that, so be it. I've owned gaming systems since I was a kid, first being either the Atari 2600, or a Commodore 64. (I forget now which one I had first, it's been a long long time since then). Needless to say, I'm a video game lover and have been since I first picked up a controller. As I've aged, my tastes in video games have adapted and progressed to where I want and desire the most powerful of those systems. I remember back in the 90's when I wanted a Neo Geo, or 3DO, but being a kid too young to work I couldn't afford those. I'm what you would consider your tech-geek type of person. I love having the best and most powerful of everything I can have. I didn't flinch last spring when I dropped $600 on a video card for my computer for the marginal upgrade over my previous video card, but I wanted to be on the bleeding edge of the technology. Of course I've talked myself out of updating it again as I've cut down my gaming on my computer and transitioned it back to my consoles. (World of Warcraft tends to get ya addicted, and then burnt out to where you don't want to be on your computer for hours at a time.) Today, when I look at gaming systems I do want the best available with the best graphics. When you get to that it leaves just 2 systems that interest me. The Xbox360, and the PS3. I already have the 360, but I just can't find many games that really get me excited lately. (Yes I know gears is supposed to be a great game, but I doesn't really interest me.) There are many 1st party and exclusives that I really want on the PS3 in comparison to other systems out there. The Wii, well it just doesn't do anything for me. I know that for others it's the greatest thing since cheese in a can because of the unique controller scheme, but looks like it will be a fad that will pass in time. HDTV's will greatly increase in number over the next few years and the costs of those sets continue to get cheaper and cheaper. It's not impossible to see them really taking off once the federal law comes through. I love my HDTV and my HD channels. I end up watching HD the majority of the time anymore and have grown a fondness to the Discovery Channel HD. As someone else mentioned, the PS3 can and will be able to pass quick and significant price drops because of the technology involved. When the costs continue to decrease for the blue-ray as well as the cell processor, I can see the PS3 dropping below the current xbox 360 core price within a few years. If you would like a case in point, look at the DVD technology and how quickly the players dropped in price within a span of 5 years. They were commonly at $4-500 USD for a couple years, then they drastically reduced the prices to where you could get a cheapo wal mart brand for $40 right before Christmas. Anytime you have new technology the production costs can and will decrease drastically in a short amount of time. I think come late 2009 early 2010, you will see the PS3 below $300. Of course that would most likely mean a price drop to come this year, and I think Sony is planning on a $50-100 USD this fall/winter prior to Christmas. Blu-ray players are dropping in price quite a bit lately and entering into the "affordable" level for those wishing to adopt to the technology now. As far as those who want to debunk what I said, let's just take the tried and true measure of letting time tell the story. I can see the PS3 passing the Xbox 360 within 2 years. (It does have a large difference to make up and we'll see later this year when titles start to come out that excite the fanbase.)

 That's why the PS1 failed. The N64's launch in America is 2nd only to the Wii. The N64 smoked the PS1 didnt it.

At what point in time did the Saturn gain more than a Million unit lead on the Playstation? At what point in time did the Playstation lose its lead to the N64? Everytime someone brings up the Playstation to compare to the PS3 it only demonstrates that they do not really understand the market that the Playstation launched into.

The Playstation was a product launched by a company that had no prior presence in the gaming market (think Nokia with the nGage). The only reason the Playstation even really survived is how poorly the Saturn was handled (Sega hurt their image with the Sega-CD and 32X, and then launched the Saturn at an insanely high price with literally no games).

In March 1995 this is how the console war looked:

Console	Maker	Date	Japan	Americas	PAL	Total
	Sega	Mar-1995	0.06 / 3.55	2.11 / 14.74	0.42 / 8.17	2.59 / 26.46
	Nintendo	Mar-1995	1.06 / 14.47	0.34 / 15.39	0.46 / 6.67	1.86 / 36.53
	Sega	Mar-1995	0.21 / 1.60	1.05 / 5.37	0.23 / 3.28	1.49 / 10.25
	Nintendo	Mar-1995	0.55 / 11.16	0.17 / 16.97	0.68 / 15.38	1.40 / 43.51
	Sony	Mar-1995	0.85 / 0.85	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.85 / 0.85
	Sega	Mar-1995	0.84 / 0.84	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.84 / 0.84
	3DO	Mar-1995	0.17 / 0.47	0.17 / 0.24	0.03 / 0.06	0.37 / 0.77
	Sega	Mar-1995	0.01 / 0.40	0.14 / 1.43	0.03 / 0.39	0.18 / 2.22
	Nintendo	Mar-1995	0.14 / 18.87	0.00 / 33.99	0.02 / 8.56	0.16 / 61.42
	NEC	Mar-1995	0.10 / 0.10	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.10 / 0.10
	NEC	Mar-1995	0.05 / 1.92	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.05 / 1.92
	NEC	Mar-1995	0.00 / 3.92	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 3.92

Basically, neither system was performing all that well. This trend continued through 1995 as you can see by the March 1996 charts:

Console	Maker	Date	Japan	Americas	PAL	Total
	Nintendo	Mar-1996	1.14 / 16.25	2.10 / 18.76	0.36 / 7.29	3.60 / 42.30
	Nintendo	Mar-1996	0.67 / 12.16	0.96 / 18.36	1.12 / 17.14	2.75 / 47.66
	Sony	Mar-1996	0.90 / 2.46	0.79 / 1.00	0.80 / 0.80	2.49 / 4.26
	Sega	Mar-1996	0.92 / 2.50	0.33 / 0.57	0.33 / 0.33	1.58 / 3.40
	Sega	Mar-1996	0.01 / 3.58	0.83 / 16.31	0.27 / 8.65	1.11 / 28.54
	3DO	Mar-1996	0.14 / 0.72	0.15 / 0.52	0.01 / 0.08	0.30 / 1.32
	Sega	Mar-1996	0.07 / 1.78	0.05 / 5.51	0.02 / 3.33	0.14 / 10.62
	NEC	Mar-1996	0.05 / 0.22	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.05 / 0.22
	Nintendo	Mar-1996	0.04 / 18.95	0.00 / 33.99	0.00 / 8.56	0.04 / 61.50
	NEC	Mar-1996	0.00 / 3.92	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 3.92
	Sega	Mar-1996	0.00 / 0.40	0.00 / 1.45	0.00 / 0.39	0.00 / 2.24
	NEC	Mar-1996	0.00 / 1.92	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 1.92

You should take notice that in the six months between September-1995 and March-1996 Sony sold more Playstations than they had before hand; in other words the Playstation was really starting to take off and seperate itself from the competition (the Saturn).

Now in the next 6 months the N64 launched but the Playstation was really starting to build momentium and selling nearly as many systems in that six month period as they had sold ever.

Console	Maker	Date	Japan	Americas	PAL	Total
	Sony	Sep-1996	1.33 / 3.79	1.49 / 2.49	0.98 / 1.78	3.80 / 8.06
	Nintendo	Sep-1996	1.23 / 13.39	0.45 / 18.81	1.11 / 18.25	2.79 / 50.45
	Sega	Sep-1996	1.41 / 3.91	0.26 / 0.83	0.19 / 0.52	1.86 / 5.26
	Nintendo	Sep-1996	1.29 / 1.29	0.38 / 0.38	0.00 / 0.00	1.67 / 1.67
	Nintendo	Sep-1996	0.26 / 16.51	0.64 / 19.40	0.22 / 7.51	1.12 / 43.42
	Sega	Sep-1996	0.01 / 3.59	0.49 / 16.80	0.24 / 8.89	0.74 / 29.28
	Nintendo	Sep-1996	0.04 / 18.99	0.01 / 34.00	0.00 / 8.56	0.05 / 61.55
	Sega	Sep-1996	0.01 / 1.79	0.02 / 5.53	0.01 / 3.34	0.04 / 10.66
	3DO	Sep-1996	0.00 / 0.72	0.02 / 0.54	0.01 / 0.09	0.03 / 1.35
	NEC	Sep-1996	0.02 / 0.24	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.02 / 0.24
	NEC	Sep-1996	0.00 / 3.92	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 3.92
	Sega	Sep-1996	0.00 / 0.40	0.00 / 1.45	0.00 / 0.39	0.00 / 2.24
	NEC	Sep-1996	0.00 / 1.92	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 1.92

Finally, after the 1996 holiday period (and after the massively quick N64 launch in North America) we see that the generation was never even close:

Console	Maker	Date	Japan	Americas	PAL	Total
	Sony	Mar-1997	2.71 / 6.50	1.51 / 4.00	1.22 / 3.00	5.44 / 13.50
	Nintendo	Mar-1997	0.75 / 2.04	2.73 / 3.11	0.97 / 0.97	4.45 / 6.12
	Nintendo	Mar-1997	1.63 / 15.02	1.02 / 19.83	1.66 / 19.91	4.31 / 54.76
	Sega	Mar-1997	0.89 / 4.80	0.87 / 1.70	0.54 / 1.06	2.30 / 7.56
	Nintendo	Mar-1997	0.36 / 16.87	1.61 / 21.01	0.21 / 7.72	2.18 / 45.60
	Sega	Mar-1997	0.00 / 3.59	0.61 / 17.41	0.32 / 9.21	0.93 / 30.21
	Nintendo	Mar-1997	0.05 / 19.04	0.00 / 34.00	0.00 / 8.56	0.05 / 61.60
	NEC	Mar-1997	0.03 / 0.27	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.03 / 0.27
	Sega	Mar-1997	0.00 / 1.79	0.01 / 5.54	0.00 / 3.34	0.01 / 10.67
	NEC	Mar-1997	0.00 / 3.92	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 3.92
	Sega	Mar-1997	0.00 / 0.40	0.00 / 1.45	0.00 / 0.39	0.00 / 2.24
	NEC	Mar-1997	0.00 / 1.92	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 0.00	0.00 / 1.92
	3DO	Mar-1997	0.00 / 0.72	0.00 / 0.54	0.00 / 0.09	0.00 / 1.35

The thing you NEVER seem to get Kwaad is that you can't simply line up two consoles launches, say that since they're selling at similar rates they will have similar results. Sony already has a (very well known) brand so their slow sales can not be caused by people not knowing who they are (as was the case with the Playstation); the obvious reason why they're selling so slowly is because Sony has never faced competition as strong as the Wii (even the DS was much weaker competition to the PSP and we have seen how that turned out).

Copy-past some more. I already know all that. I think the Wii is gonna end up like the N64. I *personally* liked the N64 over the PS1.