The government is issuing coupons for digital-analog converters for those people who don't want to upgrade. The cable companies also have warehouses full of SD digital cable boxes that work with analog sets.

An important question that no one knows the answer to is how many people are buying HDTVs because they have a Higher Definition display?

From personal experience I would say that the main selling features of HDTVs are the larger screen size and flat panel construction; most people I know with HDTVs haven't spent the $500 for the HD-digital cable box in order to get the handful of "Free" HD-Channels and even those that have didn't spend the extra $10 per month on the HD-channel package. I have said for a while that people are probably only going to really start caring about HD-Content after most of the TV they watch is in HD, HD-Movie players are affordable (read $100-$150), and every movie is released in a HD-Format and is available to be rented at every movie rental location; it is likely all of these things will be in place in 2010 or 2011.

Essentially, when this generation is winding down you will start to see a transition from SD to HD in most households and that is when the PS3 could have a major advantage over the Wii. This will (likely) mean that the PS3 will be overshadowed by the reports of the Super Wii Advance and the XBox 720 that will be released in 2011.

Well, this chart is 2 years old and extremely unrealistic.  Think about it, assuming the avg price of HDTV was $650 in 2009 (a very high avg number as prices are going down)  This means that they see HDTVs selling 100 million units! I doubt that any year has even sold that many TVs, not too mention HDTVs.  There's only 300M people in the US and ~100M households, so effectively every households in the US buys a new TV in 2009?  Not likely.

Initially, the per unit cost of HDTVs were high, in 2005, it was difficult to get an HDTV for less than $2000, so $18B = less than 9 million sets (tho I think I read that it was in the 2-3 million range, meaning avg price would have been >$5000). 

I still think that far more units will be cheap CRTs or something for < $250.  Even tho HDTVs are getting cheaper, they won't break the $250 barrier till 2010.  So I think that the SD will still rule in 2009

I'll bite and play devil's advocate here for a bit. Let's assume for the sake argument that the Wii is selling solely on the basis of its controller. Best case scenario: sales continue to go well for the next few years because people are crazy about the controller. Nintendo takes a massive leap in market share and grabs the second place spot from Microsoft. Microsoft and Sony take notice of this popularity, and both decide to steal and improve upon the design, thereby giving nobody a reason to purchase Nintendo's next system. Worst case scenario: Wiimotes continue to be popular for the next couple years but eventually turn out just like ROB/Power Pad/zapper light gun/U-Force/Power Glove/Super Scope/Jumper Pak/etc. During those couple years, Nintendo builds up a bunch of new franchises that are now useless, and it does so by cannibalizing the sales of its existing brands, thereby giving it even less firepower next time around, while in the process seeing to it they can't meet the very nice 9 game tie ratio Gamecube enjoyed. I do believe GTA is definitely more engrained in the minds of the PS owners than it would be with 360. If 360 outsells it, it'll be because of the large userbase advantage. It will move millions of units on each system regardless, and it will sell systems as it always has. Don't worry, jjseth. Most people assume I'm a Sony fanboy, too, since I don't see any logical way they'll be dethroned. Even though I don't even really care about Sony one way or the other.

Likewise.

Well, at the current rate of sales the Wii will be the number one system in the world by the end of June and will have a lead over the PS3 of (at least) 5 Million units; the best case scenerio would be the Wii would sell 40 Million units by January 1st 2009 and have a 25 Million unit lead on the PS3. Even if you're correct and the Wii is only ever going to sell 40 Million to 50 Million units, which is still a massive gain.

Now, I'm not too sure whether you mean that Sony and Microsoft will steal the Wiimote as an addon or for their next system. As an addon the PS3 and XBox 360s version of the Wiimote would be amazingly unsuccessful as no add on has ever been successful enough to get more than a handful of developers to create games for it; without the developers only a handful of people ever buy the add on. On the other hand I anticipate that the PS4 and XBox 720 will include Waggle but this doesn't ensure their success; all else being equal people will stick with the brand they know (people who want waggle will stick with Nintendo's waggle, people who don't will be upset with Microsoft and Sony for abandoning them).

Well the Wii has already sold more units than any of those things, already has more games created to take advantage of the Wiimote than any of those things, and the support will continue as long as sales continue. If third party developers start focusing their efforts on the Wii I don't see how people could get tired of it ... 

Just like Finaly Fantasy was more engrained in the minds of Nintendo owners and thus sold poorly on the Playstation?

You are a fanboy because you fail to realize that the PS3 is currently being outsold in all three regions and is seeing a weekly decline in its sales; if things continue this way people will stop associating the PS3 with the N64 and start talking about it as Sony's Dreamcast or possibly Sony's nGage.

 

Shane you simply have no clue, and logically you can't see the reason why you are wrong because you believe that you are right.  Unfortunately you are completely wrong.

1.  Talking about accessories or different play styles - wrong.  Why? Because they were accessories, they had to be uptaken on the next level, and generally that can only ever be about 5%, so 5% of a userbase have an accessory of it is HUGELY successful, so you have 5% of the market to aim at an accessory, sorry but every Wii has a Wii Remote and every Wii game HAS to use this as a priority with the Classic / Gamecube controller as a second option.

2. Nintendo have nothing next gen because everyone is using Wii Remote's - wrong. The fundamental way of playing isn't going to change for all platforms like that, and you know what... Nintendo can improve upon it as well you know, and you know what? They will.  They have never released a controller that was fundamentally the same as the last (except for the GC controller being really just a tuned up N64 controller - which sucked I hate the big A button idea).

I think that's all I need to talk about here.

Shane you don't think you are a Sony fanboy? I don't know if you've seen my posts here but I like to think I'm not a fanboy of any console, but you bash Nintendo too much to come across as anything BUT a fanboy.  I argue positive and negative aspects of all of the companies choices and business plans for their console.

And you think a ad on will be as popular as controller? Why can't Nintendo improve their controller and more important do a Wii number two and deliver something totally new to the market?

So you belive that it just will die out? That is the samething that everybody were saying about the DS to, it is just a fad, PSP will kill it etc.

Some of the things you wrote I at least can understand, but this makes me wonder. If GTA IV is released on a system that has 1, more games 2, a 200 USD lower price tag they will chose PS3 only? Because honestly looking at the sales of the latest GTA games and how many PS3 there have been sold I think there is some GTA fans that haven't bought a new consol. With the massive lead Microsoft has in USA I fail to see why 100% of them would chose to buy PS3 instead of xbox360.

Yay. Wii may hit #1 for a few months. And that means what exactly?

I do mean Sony and Microsoft will implement this as their next controller scheme, should it be successful. They're strong enough publishers to take serious advantage of it.

Nintendo owners bought Final Fantasy?

I'm fully aware that PS3 is being outsold at the current time and 4 months into an 8 year cycle. Yet I'm the fanboy for thinking the other 92 months matter. My apologies.

Thanks.

Which Wii games really take advantage of the Wiimote, rather than just having it tacked on as an afterthought?

If I were a fanboy, I'd more likely opt to be a Microsoft fanboy. I have little interest in Sony developed or published games and do think they overstepped their bounds by releasing a $600 system. I'm smart enough to realize that what I think is irrelevant. I am not the market. I do not dictate the market. The market will choose Sony. Admittedly, it is fun to poke Nintendo fanboys with sharp objects and watch them foam at the mouth, but that's just a side benefit.

Nothing but some very early sales indicates otherwise. Microsoft's big game for the holidays is Halo. Sony's is GTA. There is a logical question as to how much room is left for GTA on Microsoft's platform. Certainly it will move millions, but the question is how many millions.

Yes they are strong, but can you change direction in the middle of a consol cycle and how will it help PS3/xbox360, and more important how will the existant fanbase react?

 Yes, the first 6 were on Nintendo hardware. SE moved FFVII because they were pissed of when it came to Nintendos former licence system.

No you are a fanboy because you state that only PS3 can reach PS1/PS2 levels of succes. I also think that you are very optimistic if you think a consol can survive for 8 years if it keeps beinh outsold by the competition (and it is 5 months now). Note: The systems that lives for long as always been the winner of that generation.

Wii Sport, Tiger Woods?

 So now you are a Microsoft fanboy, intressting. No you are not the market but if you belive that 600 USD is to much, why wouldn't it be possible for other to think the same? I thin you still have failed to state why Sony, with a consol that is att 600 USD, will be chosen by the market. Not only that but why suddently the market will start chosing the PS3. I can garantee that the N-fans belived that the market would chose N64 back in the times.

The market has now during 5 months shown that they don't want PS3, why should they start liking it as their first choice when:

• xbox360 is getting a bigger lead in USA against it. Wii has sold 2:1 against one for some time now?
• Wii is in a clear lead in Japan, a lead that most probarbly will improve during the summer?

Intrssting statemant, xbox360 owners is famous for one thing, insane attach ratios. I think they could survive buying two good games over the winter holidays. Sony is GTA untill another consol gets the same treatment. We can't say anything about the sales for defenitive, but if the sales are divided with 50% on each plattform GTA want thelp PS3 at all. You seems to have little fait in Microsoft or xbox360 for being a Microsoft fanboy.