Will the Handhelds dominate gaming for a while?
With the Wii going into its last full year as the current Nintendo Home System being repaced by the Wii U sometime in 2012 and the PS3/360 becoming older...will it be the Handhelds turn to shine? First off, the Wii while still selling is clearly no longer Nintendo's main focus as seen at this year's E3. They are moving on and now focusing on the 3DS and release of the Wii U. They have also stated that they plan on having Zelda Skyward Sword as the final push for the Wii in a similar way to Pokemon Black/White being the last big push for the DS. Now you might say "Well what about the Wii U?"
Before E3 2011, everyone was excited for the reveal of the Wii U. After the Wii U was announced many found themselves dissapointed with Nintendo and stocks even dropped to the lowest Nintendo has seen since 2005. When was 2005? Well, it was the year that DS sales were lower than expected and the Wii was revealed. Now look at where Nintendo is LOL. Could this be a repeat situation for Nintendo? We will have to wait and see but my personal opinion is that 3DS will be a success and Wii U...not so much. Why? Well, Wii U is in an odd place somewhere between a Home System and a Handheld. IMO, people who want a Home System experience will buy a PS3, 360, or even a regular Wii.(Nintendo may even find themselves in a PS2 to PS3 issue and have trouble convincing Wii owners to upgrade to Wii U) People who want a Handheld experience are probably going to go for a 3DS or Vita. Lets say that the Wii U will be another big success like the Wii. Even if it is a success it should take a while to gain high weekly sales after the initial launch due to its small library of games.(Like most systems do) Now you might say "Why are you counting the PS3 & 360 out?"
Like the old lady twins in the picture above ,the HD Twins are getting old. While they don't really look as old as the Wii does with their high end graphics and updated Motion controls...they are in fact just as old if not older(Sorry 360) to the general public. When the 3DS was announced back in March 2010 it got people thinking about next Gen. When the Wii U is released and the general public knows about it they will begin to think that the PS3 and 360 are old tech. PS3 & 360 should both continue to sell well for years to come with continued game support and Price Cuts...but by this time next year I think that both PS3 and 360 will be in the same boat as the Wii is this year. I expect Sony and Microsoft to reveal new Home Systems at E3 2012 with XBox 3 getting a Spring/Summer 2013 release and PS4 getting a Late/Holiday 2013 release. Again, both should continue to sell well but not to the extent of PS2 this Gen. Your final question may be "How does all of this mean Handheld Domination?"
With all of the new releases and announcements about to take place on the Home System front the Handhelds should lead in sales for a while. By the time the Wii U releases the 3DS, and to a lesser extent Vita should have a decent library of games released. After the initial launch of Wii U, sales should be slow. Around the same time Wii U launches is when Microsoft and Sony will probably announce the XBox 3 and PS4. When this happens PS3 and 360 should have less 1st party support like the Wii does this year. You might think that 3DS sales are low so it won't dominate anything...but remember DS sales were slow at the start too...and Systems don't sell without games. I think that sales will pick up for 3DS when games start releasing and Vita sales will start off decent, begin to slow after the initial launch, and pick up again with games, around E3 2012. I fully expect a Handheld domination period starting with Holiday 2011, and lasting through all of 2012 and part of 2013.
