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Forums - Politics - So... Greece?

lestatdark said:
kowenicki said:
lestatdark said:
kowenicki said:
I think it's about time some of the "smaller" European nations residents woke up and realised that all the subsidies they had over recent years are now over and it's pay back time.

Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, full of lovely new airports, good highways, bloated public sectors, generous state provision, all paid for by everyone else.

Parties over, you didnt evolve your economis adequately during the subsidy years so now there is nothing to fall back on. Imaginary booms fuelled by European money all to create new markets for the larger European nations.

Now it's all gone wrong.... all so predictable.

Oh please, talking out of a panflet is so easy to do. Knowing the actual reality of the countries, now that's a pain to do right? 

I can't talk about Spain and Greece, but Portugal having new lovely airports (our main airport is 40 years old and our secondary airport was remodeled 10 years ago), good highways (only the four main highways are good, the rest are below european standards), bloated public sector (only 35% of the portuguese economy is based on the public sector), generous state provision (what generous state provision? The only ones that have it are immigrant families or ethical minorities. Everyone else is stuck on minimal state provisions, with the highest unemployement provision being 210 Eur, never going above that value and it's only valid to 2 years maximum unemployement time). Plus, we have the lowest unemployement rates and lowest public debt of the PIGS. 

Do not try to talk as if everyone is in the same boat. Portugal's economy failed because of failed government policies and complete destruction of the primary and secondary sectors (our agriculture and industry is in shambles) and we're living on a 78% import to 23% export ratio, which has been screwing up our budgets since 1992. Plus, we also have the BPN bank crisis, which gave us an aditional 4B Eur debt.

I can agree that Portugal lived too long out of European financial aids and didn't meet the requirements for a growing market, though Portugal's economy never did have the strength to compete with the larger european economies. And I also agree that we really need to do much more as a country and as an economy to be worthy of the current FMI/European aid.

But let's make this very clear. This current economical situation isn't only caused by the poor market economy of these four countries. It's also an attack to the value of the Euro market itself, a complete unregulated, uncontrolled and unverified attack by the financial institutions like Standard&Poors which is creating a vicious cycle effect, with their constant unexplained rating changes and constant interest fluctuations which are murdering any chance of recovery from these countries.

Don't take this the wrong way, I know that my country has a lot of blame in this current situation, but there's a lot more going on than just poor financial decisions made by just four countries.

Dont get me wrong... im not blaming the four countries alone... (although on my last trip to Portugal in 2009 all the roads seemed to be new.

I'm blaming the federal wishes of the Eu that brought about an unworkable single fiscal policy and single currency which was always going to falter... As i said earlier, so so so so predictable.

Thnak god we stayed out.  I wish I could revisit all of those conversdations I had with the liberals and centre left of this country who were rabid about joining the single currency.

The grand majority of our national roadway system is below standard (about 80%, with 65% of our national roadways and intercity roadways being in poor and/or dangerous conditions). We have a 28 highways, but only 5 of them are above the 50 km mark, most of them are very short (for traffic re-routing mostly). Plus, 8 of them were built in the last 6 years of Socrates government, which in this point I agree that it was a waste of public money, since most aren't actually cost efficient (due to misplacement and the later adoption of the SCUT system). 

Oh I agree with you that the wishes of the EU in bringing a single currency were misplaced, given the vast array of differences between the economies of the european countries. Simply put, countries like Portugal, Greece and most of the newly-added eastern european ones don't have the market economy to strive for the economical balance that countries like France, Germany, the UK and almost all of the northern european countries have. 

To be honest, and looking at the situation of my country only, we were much better when our economy was still based in Escudos and our country interest rates were mainly balanced according to our public FMI debt, which was the equivalent of 0,7B Eur today, which gave us a 10 year interest rate of only 2.5% and we had a globa economical growth of 1.7%. Even with the piss-poor government management since 1992, we would have been in much better shape than we are right now.


the same can be said about drahma in greece 10 years ago 



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The ASI has a great solution, debt writeoffs.

http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/international/can-debt-writeoffs-help-the-eurozone-avoid-a-default%3F/



lestatdark said:
kowenicki said:
I think it's about time some of the "smaller" European nations residents woke up and realised that all the subsidies they had over recent years are now over and it's pay back time.

Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, full of lovely new airports, good highways, bloated public sectors, generous state provision, all paid for by everyone else.

Parties over, you didnt evolve your economis adequately during the subsidy years so now there is nothing to fall back on. Imaginary booms fuelled by European money all to create new markets for the larger European nations.

Now it's all gone wrong.... all so predictable.

Oh please, talking out of a panflet is so easy to do. Knowing the actual reality of the countries, now that's a pain to do right? 

I can't talk about Spain and Greece, but Portugal having new lovely airports (our main airport is 40 years old and our secondary airport was remodeled 10 years ago), good highways (only the four main highways are good, the rest are below european standards), bloated public sector (only 35% of the portuguese economy is based on the public sector), generous state provision (what generous state provision? The only ones that have it are immigrant families or ethical minorities. Everyone else is stuck on minimal state provisions, with the highest unemployement provision being 210 Eur, never going above that value and it's only valid to 2 years maximum unemployement time). Plus, we have the lowest unemployement rates and lowest public debt of the PIGS. 

Do not try to talk as if everyone is in the same boat. Portugal's economy failed because of failed government policies and complete destruction of the primary and secondary sectors (our agriculture and industry is in shambles) and we're living on a 78% import to 23% export ratio, which has been screwing up our budgets since 1992. Plus, we also have the BPN bank crisis, which gave us an aditional 4B Eur debt.

I can agree that Portugal lived too long out of European financial aids and didn't meet the requirements for a growing market, though Portugal's economy never did have the strength to compete with the larger european economies. And I also agree that we really need to do much more as a country and as an economy to be worthy of the current FMI/European aid.

But let's make this very clear. This current economical situation isn't only caused by the poor market economy of these four countries. It's also an attack to the value of the Euro market itself, a complete unregulated, uncontrolled and unverified attack by the financial institutions like Standard&Poors which is creating a vicious cycle effect, with their constant unexplained rating changes and constant interest fluctuations which are murdering any chance of recovery from these countries.

Don't take this the wrong way, I know that my country has a lot of blame in this current situation, but there's a lot more going on than just poor financial decisions made by just four countries.


Finally someone gets it. I can speak only for Greece. They did not pay for any of the airports or highways. German companies do and get royalties.



this is what i don't understand about the eu and brussells they want a super state like the usa,china,russia,india but with 90 different decision makers who don't agree on how to do anything

and can't all the so called professionals just up and leave greece for somewhere with money in the eu,it doesn't make sense to me,my dentist is portuguese now so i guess there is some truth in it,i wonder what would happen if the euro failed,can the euro actually fail?



                                                                                                                                        Above & Beyond

   

kowenicki said:
lestatdark said:
kowenicki said:
lestatdark said:
kowenicki said:
I think it's about time some of the "smaller" European nations residents woke up and realised that all the subsidies they had over recent years are now over and it's pay back time.

Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, full of lovely new airports, good highways, bloated public sectors, generous state provision, all paid for by everyone else.

Parties over, you didnt evolve your economis adequately during the subsidy years so now there is nothing to fall back on. Imaginary booms fuelled by European money all to create new markets for the larger European nations.

Now it's all gone wrong.... all so predictable.

Oh please, talking out of a panflet is so easy to do. Knowing the actual reality of the countries, now that's a pain to do right? 

I can't talk about Spain and Greece, but Portugal having new lovely airports (our main airport is 40 years old and our secondary airport was remodeled 10 years ago), good highways (only the four main highways are good, the rest are below european standards), bloated public sector (only 35% of the portuguese economy is based on the public sector), generous state provision (what generous state provision? The only ones that have it are immigrant families or ethical minorities. Everyone else is stuck on minimal state provisions, with the highest unemployement provision being 210 Eur, never going above that value and it's only valid to 2 years maximum unemployement time). Plus, we have the lowest unemployement rates and lowest public debt of the PIGS. 

Do not try to talk as if everyone is in the same boat. Portugal's economy failed because of failed government policies and complete destruction of the primary and secondary sectors (our agriculture and industry is in shambles) and we're living on a 78% import to 23% export ratio, which has been screwing up our budgets since 1992. Plus, we also have the BPN bank crisis, which gave us an aditional 4B Eur debt.

I can agree that Portugal lived too long out of European financial aids and didn't meet the requirements for a growing market, though Portugal's economy never did have the strength to compete with the larger european economies. And I also agree that we really need to do much more as a country and as an economy to be worthy of the current FMI/European aid.

But let's make this very clear. This current economical situation isn't only caused by the poor market economy of these four countries. It's also an attack to the value of the Euro market itself, a complete unregulated, uncontrolled and unverified attack by the financial institutions like Standard&Poors which is creating a vicious cycle effect, with their constant unexplained rating changes and constant interest fluctuations which are murdering any chance of recovery from these countries.

Don't take this the wrong way, I know that my country has a lot of blame in this current situation, but there's a lot more going on than just poor financial decisions made by just four countries.

Dont get me wrong... im not blaming the four countries alone... (although on my last trip to Portugal in 2009 all the roads seemed to be new.

I'm blaming the federal wishes of the Eu that brought about an unworkable single fiscal policy and single currency which was always going to falter... As i said earlier, so so so so predictable.

Thnak god we stayed out.  I wish I could revisit all of those conversdations I had with the liberals and centre left of this country who were rabid about joining the single currency.

The grand majority of our national roadway system is below standard (about 80%, with 65% of our national roadways and intercity roadways being in poor and/or dangerous conditions). We have a 28 highways, but only 5 of them are above the 50 km mark, most of them are very short (for traffic re-routing mostly). Plus, 8 of them were built in the last 6 years of Socrates government, which in this point I agree that it was a waste of public money, since most aren't actually cost efficient (due to misplacement and the later adoption of the SCUT system). 

Oh I agree with you that the wishes of the EU in bringing a single currency were misplaced, given the vast array of differences between the economies of the european countries. Simply put, countries like Portugal, Greece and most of the newly-added eastern european ones don't have the market economy to strive for the economical balance that countries like France, Germany, the UK and almost all of the northern european countries have. 

To be honest, and looking at the situation of my country only, we were much better when our economy was still based in Escudos and our country interest rates were mainly balanced according to our public FMI debt, which was the equivalent of 0,7B Eur today, which gave us a 10 year interest rate of only 2.5% and we had a globa economical growth of 1.7%. Even with the piss-poor government management since 1992, we would have been in much better shape than we are right now.

Thats a very mature and sensible way to look at it.  Not everyone sees things as clearly and seem to think the wolrld owes them something.

The rioting Greek civilians are a bit annoying to be honest, did they really think what they had was sutainable, did they not once sit back and think how come we have all of this, how come we have such a massive public sector?  Turning a blind eye has bitten them hard.

 

yes here most of the people working in the public sector  here  in greece have gone in from the window , back door or  the cheminy 



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kowenicki said:
lestatdark said:
kowenicki said:
lestatdark said:
kowenicki said:
I think it's about time some of the "smaller" European nations residents woke up and realised that all the subsidies they had over recent years are now over and it's pay back time.

Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, full of lovely new airports, good highways, bloated public sectors, generous state provision, all paid for by everyone else.

Parties over, you didnt evolve your economis adequately during the subsidy years so now there is nothing to fall back on. Imaginary booms fuelled by European money all to create new markets for the larger European nations.

Now it's all gone wrong.... all so predictable.

Oh please, talking out of a panflet is so easy to do. Knowing the actual reality of the countries, now that's a pain to do right? 

I can't talk about Spain and Greece, but Portugal having new lovely airports (our main airport is 40 years old and our secondary airport was remodeled 10 years ago), good highways (only the four main highways are good, the rest are below european standards), bloated public sector (only 35% of the portuguese economy is based on the public sector), generous state provision (what generous state provision? The only ones that have it are immigrant families or ethical minorities. Everyone else is stuck on minimal state provisions, with the highest unemployement provision being 210 Eur, never going above that value and it's only valid to 2 years maximum unemployement time). Plus, we have the lowest unemployement rates and lowest public debt of the PIGS. 

Do not try to talk as if everyone is in the same boat. Portugal's economy failed because of failed government policies and complete destruction of the primary and secondary sectors (our agriculture and industry is in shambles) and we're living on a 78% import to 23% export ratio, which has been screwing up our budgets since 1992. Plus, we also have the BPN bank crisis, which gave us an aditional 4B Eur debt.

I can agree that Portugal lived too long out of European financial aids and didn't meet the requirements for a growing market, though Portugal's economy never did have the strength to compete with the larger european economies. And I also agree that we really need to do much more as a country and as an economy to be worthy of the current FMI/European aid.

But let's make this very clear. This current economical situation isn't only caused by the poor market economy of these four countries. It's also an attack to the value of the Euro market itself, a complete unregulated, uncontrolled and unverified attack by the financial institutions like Standard&Poors which is creating a vicious cycle effect, with their constant unexplained rating changes and constant interest fluctuations which are murdering any chance of recovery from these countries.

Don't take this the wrong way, I know that my country has a lot of blame in this current situation, but there's a lot more going on than just poor financial decisions made by just four countries.

Dont get me wrong... im not blaming the four countries alone... (although on my last trip to Portugal in 2009 all the roads seemed to be new.

I'm blaming the federal wishes of the Eu that brought about an unworkable single fiscal policy and single currency which was always going to falter... As i said earlier, so so so so predictable.

Thnak god we stayed out.  I wish I could revisit all of those conversdations I had with the liberals and centre left of this country who were rabid about joining the single currency.

The grand majority of our national roadway system is below standard (about 80%, with 65% of our national roadways and intercity roadways being in poor and/or dangerous conditions). We have a 28 highways, but only 5 of them are above the 50 km mark, most of them are very short (for traffic re-routing mostly). Plus, 8 of them were built in the last 6 years of Socrates government, which in this point I agree that it was a waste of public money, since most aren't actually cost efficient (due to misplacement and the later adoption of the SCUT system). 

Oh I agree with you that the wishes of the EU in bringing a single currency were misplaced, given the vast array of differences between the economies of the european countries. Simply put, countries like Portugal, Greece and most of the newly-added eastern european ones don't have the market economy to strive for the economical balance that countries like France, Germany, the UK and almost all of the northern european countries have. 

To be honest, and looking at the situation of my country only, we were much better when our economy was still based in Escudos and our country interest rates were mainly balanced according to our public FMI debt, which was the equivalent of 0,7B Eur today, which gave us a 10 year interest rate of only 2.5% and we had a globa economical growth of 1.7%. Even with the piss-poor government management since 1992, we would have been in much better shape than we are right now.

Thats a very mature and sensible way to look at it.  Not everyone sees things as clearly and seem to think the wolrld owes them something.

The rioting Greek civilians are a bit annoying to be honest, did they really think what they had was sutainable, did they not once sit back and think how come we have all of this, how come we have such a massive public sector?  Turning a blind eye has bitten them hard.

 


As an outsider, I do not condone the riots in Greece, mainly because I believe such behaviour is only going to hurt the country in the long run, and that's what Greece needs the least these days, but I do understand that the majority of the people rioting are fearful of the great changes that their country has to go through in order to become a viable market once again, or at least have enough funding to get back on track.

But you're right, such a large public sector is unsustainable. I may be wrong, but I heard that Greece's public sector was almost 80% of their total economical weight, which is, of course, not a viable solution. Simply put, you cannot (as a government) generate enough income to sustain such a massive working force in a country, even if you pushed taxes to an insanely high value and cut on every social support and spending. Also, (I might be wrong in this point too), isn't Greece's major sector the tertiary sector, just as Portugal? If we're struggling with such a scenario and our public sector is only 35%, you can just imagine the damage an 80%, tertiary sector based economy would do to a country. 

I'll explain why I think my values aren't completely correct (anyone from Greece is welcomed to help me and explain it to me). These values are the last ones I heard from an interview with the official greek ambassador here in Portugal, back when Greece was receiving it's first share of the international aid in 2010, so they might be a bit out-of-date or not completely accurate.



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lestatdark said:

As an outsider, I do not condone the riots in Greece, mainly because I believe such behaviour is only going to hurt the country in the long run, and that's what Greece needs the least these days, but I do understand that the majority of the people rioting are fearful of the great changes that their country has to go through in order to become a viable market once again, or at least have enough funding to get back on track.

But you're right, such a large public sector is unsustainable. I may be wrong, but I heard that Greece's public sector was almost 80% of their total economical weight, which is, of course, not a viable solution. Simply put, you cannot (as a government) generate enough income to sustain such a massive working force in a country, even if you pushed taxes to an insanely high value and cut on every social support and spending. Also, (I might be wrong in this point too), isn't Greece's major sector the tertiary sector, just as Portugal? If we're struggling with such a scenario and our public sector is only 35%, you can just imagine the damage an 80%, tertiary sector based economy would do to a country. 

I'll explain why I think my values aren't completely correct (anyone from Greece is welcomed to help me and explain it to me). These values are the last ones I heard from an interview with the official greek ambassador here in Portugal, back when Greece was receiving it's first share of the international aid in 2010, so they might be a bit out-of-date or not completely accurate.

Greece's public sector is about 40% of GDP currently.

One discussion I was reading on another forum (which has a few economists among other people) talked about one of Greece's main problems is that their tax structure is very, VERY poor. Many people avoid paying or get out of it entirely, especially the rich, which is causing tax revenues to be much less than what it needs to be - coupled with a very expensive public sector, you get insane amounts of debt-to-GDP.

Sad times are ahead for those who willingly voted themselves pay raises and benefits. This goes for every country that has relied on such actions to keep power.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

SamuelRSmith said:
The ASI has a great solution, debt writeoffs.

http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/international/can-debt-writeoffs-help-the-eurozone-avoid-a-default%3F/

That would work if the *random country* government only owed money to other *random country government* but when they say Greece owes 40 billions euros to France it means they owe 40 billions euros to French entities, not necessarily to the French government (though some of that debt might have been bought up by the French government so for that part it would work).

It would be an improvement in that instead of having France owing 185 billion euros to British entities and Britain owing 194 billion euros to French entities you would have France owe 185 billion euros to French entities and Britain owe 9 billion euros to French entities and 185 billion euros to british entities but it would not make most of the debt disappear, it would just go one step towards removing much of the domino effect that can crash the whole European (and worldwide as we are connected to US banks) economy simply by crashing a small portion of it.

But just doing that would not be enough because besides the debt there is the much bigger problem of CDS's. CDS's, or Credit Default Swap are basically a bet that an entity (a bank or a country) wil go bankrupt. If I have greek bonds worth 10 millions euros and believe Greece will go bankrupt I can buy a CDS from another entity who believes Greece won't default (good luck finding good prices on Greek CDS's today though). If Greece does default that other entity has to pay me the 10 millions euros. Of course I paid them less than that to buy the CDS, so I do not lose as much as if I had no CDS... at least in theory.

You might wonder why I call them bets and not insurance. After all, if I think my house might get hit by a tornado I can buy insurance from an entity for the value of my house at a much smaller price than the value of my house. The reason I didn't is that insurance is a regulated market so if I buy an insurance I have a reasonable assurance that the entity has the funds to pay me (has enough capital to cover its liabilities). It's not perfect because regulators can fuck up (or be captured) but there is at least an attempt at due diligence. Also, I cannot profit because of insurance; if I insure my house twice, each insurance company is only liable for half of the value, I cannot get twice my house's value by buying two insurance policies.

As you might have guesses, CDS's are not regulated so not only can you have a CDS on the plus side of your balance sheet that is practically worth bupkis because your counterparty wrote too many CDS's and does not have the capital to honor all of them (hello AIG) and having the entity against which you took the CDS default would cause the entity from which you bough the CDS default too which would affect your balance sheet and could thus cause you to default... yep, another domino effect.

There is also the problem that you can have a million in greek debt but CDs's with a value of 10 millions, the equivalent of insuring your house twice (or 10 times in this example), and because there is no regulation you can collect (or at least try to, see preceding paragraph) on the whole 10 millions. So the 83 billion euros Greece debt problem could be hiding a 830 billion euros Greek CDS problem. How much more CDS's are there than government debt? We don't know because they are not regulated.



"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"

 

This was.... more one sided then I expected.



mrstickball said:
lestatdark said:

As an outsider, I do not condone the riots in Greece, mainly because I believe such behaviour is only going to hurt the country in the long run, and that's what Greece needs the least these days, but I do understand that the majority of the people rioting are fearful of the great changes that their country has to go through in order to become a viable market once again, or at least have enough funding to get back on track.

But you're right, such a large public sector is unsustainable. I may be wrong, but I heard that Greece's public sector was almost 80% of their total economical weight, which is, of course, not a viable solution. Simply put, you cannot (as a government) generate enough income to sustain such a massive working force in a country, even if you pushed taxes to an insanely high value and cut on every social support and spending. Also, (I might be wrong in this point too), isn't Greece's major sector the tertiary sector, just as Portugal? If we're struggling with such a scenario and our public sector is only 35%, you can just imagine the damage an 80%, tertiary sector based economy would do to a country. 

I'll explain why I think my values aren't completely correct (anyone from Greece is welcomed to help me and explain it to me). These values are the last ones I heard from an interview with the official greek ambassador here in Portugal, back when Greece was receiving it's first share of the international aid in 2010, so they might be a bit out-of-date or not completely accurate.

Greece's public sector is about 40% of GDP currently.

One discussion I was reading on another forum (which has a few economists among other people) talked about one of Greece's main problems is that their tax structure is very, VERY poor. Many people avoid paying or get out of it entirely, especially the rich, which is causing tax revenues to be much less than what it needs to be - coupled with a very expensive public sector, you get insane amounts of debt-to-GDP.

Sad times are ahead for those who willingly voted themselves pay raises and benefits. This goes for every country that has relied on such actions to keep power.

Thanks for making it more clear  

Also, do you know what was/is Greece minimal wage rates in the public sector? I know that it isn't near as low as Portugal's minimal wage (we have one of the lowest minimal wage rates in the entire euro region, which has only seen a 45 eur increase in 10 years, from 440 to 485 eur).

Portugal also used to have a lot of tax evasion until 5/6 years ago, mainly due to poor fiscal regulation and poorly trained technicians in the sector. We have improved a lot in that aspect, though we still have the best tax control yet (there's still some loop-holes in the system, and some disparities like the banking system having much lower IRC, IRS and corporate taxes than other systems). Unfortunaly, our economy problems lie in the money we dry out in the import market (it's just unviable as it is, we need to restart our national agriculture and industry) and failed government policies.

Plus, as i said to kowenicki, shifting to the Eur currency had a huge impact in the overall population's purchasing power. Almost every product (especially the essential ones), doubled in price when the Eur was implemented (for example, a 6-pack of milk, which costs between 3 - 6 eur, used to cost between 400 - 600 escudos, about 2 - 3 Eur). Coupled with an increase of the VAT and only a slight increase on the minimal wage, we had an over 30% drop in the purchasing power of the overall population. To put it simply, there has only been downsides since the introduction of the Eur. 





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