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Forums - Sales Discussion - 360 Numbers don't add up!

Monty on 04 January 2007

So far you've whittled down your original sales calculation from 'nearing 10 million' to 8.7 million - and yet you persist. What is wrong with you??? 1) Nowhere on this site does it say sales numbers are posted 'up to the second' - they are updated as 'valid' data comes in (the most recent of which was the '2 million 360's over November/December). So, right off the bat you can get rid of the 200k you are trying to create in your mind as consoles that were sold from the 25th to the 31st. Additionally - I've already told you that since that particular week was a holiday-shortened week, you can't make assumptions as to how many consoles 'would have', 'could have', or 'should have' sold at that time. So, drop the 200k you keep inventing - it's irrelevant. 2) As has been stated before - there is no proof that Mexico gets their own designated shipment of consoles, but rather, most are likely imported from the US (which would, in fact, count towards the original US totals that were provided). If you would be so kind as to show proof that MS even formerly 'launched' in Mexico, I would appreciate seeing that. Otherwise, that's another 300k stricken from your imaginary numbers. So, we're back at 8.2 million and vgcharts is reporting 8.1 million and change - what's your problem??? Where is it written on this site that the numbers change everytime a cash register rings? Oh yeah - you must have visited that other site with the 'real time' sales counter. :| Maybe it would help if you just looked at the numbers as 'Current through 12/25' - would that help you? I mean - a 2 week lag is pretty darn good, don't you think??? Sheesh...
First, I still believe the number to be closer to 10 million, then 8 million. As I outlined in the post above I'm giving in to nearly every conservative number you guys throw my way just to show how off these stats are. Secondly, I like your excuse that the site is way off simply because it's out of date. So, these numbers could be from November. Hmmmm.... that would make more sense to me! Thirdly, you really don't believe that MS didn't launch in Mexico, and you believe that MS ships no consoles to Mexico????!??!??! It's times like these I wonder why I am even bothering to debate some of you. Clearly a few of you are not playing with a full deck here. Anyhow, MS did launch in Mexico. I'd point it out for you, but as has been the pattern here, every time I prove you guys wrong you jump somewhere else and pretend you never were arguing that point (like the NPD numbers include Canada and Mexico argument). If you'll use Google on the Mexico launch issue, you'll figure it out yourself and I won't have to embarrass you further.



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ICStats on 04 January 2007

Monty said: Some of you are citing the 8 days worth of sales in Canada (Nov 22nd 2005 - Nov 30th 2005) as proof that Canada sells 10% of the US. However, I really believe that an 8 day period of sales during a very shortage filled launch is hardly conclusive proof of this. However,as I said, if it is 10%, then that is 500k. How many do you people believe that Mexico sold in the last 14 months? Most here say they believe it would be less than Canada, but in the same ballpark. Lets say 300k just for fun, as I highly doubt it could be any lower than that. Granted they dont sell a lot, but over a 14 month time period thats just 21,000 a month. So going with most of YOUR figures, Canada/Mexico sold around 800k. Lets plug that in to what we know: - 2.9 million sold in the US from launch until Oct 06 (source: NPD). - 2 million sold in between Nov 1st and Dec 25th, 06 (source NPD) - 2.87 million all other places in the world, outside NA (source: vgcharts) - 800k for the rest of NA - 200k for the last week of Dec 2006 in the US That is 8.7 million. If you believe the NA total to only be 400k, then youre still above vgcharts at 8.3 million. Keep in mind were not even adding in 2007 yet, and vgcharts was at 7.9 at the end of the year. I think Ive more than proven my point. Unless you believe NA sold ZERO consoles in the last 14 months, there is no way you can believe vgcharts as being accurate. And if you believe that Canada and Mexico sold no consoles in 14 months, there may be no reasoning with you...
Funny you think you proved your point after dropping your estimate from 10 million to 8.7 million.



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NoIdea on 04 January 2007

Hot damn, Monty is ignorant kid. Please, man, just stop talking, you're making yourself look like a fool.



Cryoakira on 04 January 2007

Well, I'm not backing the figures Monty gives, but there's one thing I'll agree with : there are a LOT of assumptions here. NPD does not have the Walmart (and Toys'r us i think) figures, so they assume the numbers of units sold. NPD does not always give the Canada/Mexico figures, but VG assumes its around 10% of USA sales. Then, base on this, VG assume that european/rest of the world sales are around 45% of the NA sales...



Monty on 05 January 2007

TalonMan said: ...time and again, you keep changing your stance Monty - and then you wonder why your numbers don't add up?!?!? Yesterday - you were in agreement that 4.9 million consoles were sold in the US. Today, you post a link to an analyst's "estimate" and now claim that 5.1 million were sold. That's a 200k unit descrepancy - about half the total that was probably sold in all of CANADA!!!!
I quoted 4.9 through Dec 25th. NPD recently released it's estimate for the entire year. The extra 200k is what I've been saying all along in my estimate from Dec 25th to Dec 31st. According to NPD, I was dead on correct with the 5.1. That is US only... no Canada, no Mexico...



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Monty on 05 January 2007

Cryoakira said: Well, I'm not backing the figures Monty gives, but there's one thing I'll agree with : there are a LOT of assumptions here. NPD does not have the Walmart (and Toys'r us i think) figures, so they assume the numbers of units sold. NPD does not always give the Canada/Mexico figures, but VG assumes its around 10% of USA sales. Then, base on this, VG assume that european/rest of the world sales are around 45% of the NA sales...
These aren't "my" figures. NPD says 5.1 million for the US... I didn't make that up myself. If you're figuring 10% for NA, then there should be another 500k added to that. That brings NA to 5.6+ million by the end of 2006. vgcharts says 5.2 million. The only things I am saying is that I think Canada and Mexico account for more than 10%, but even taking your figure puts it above vgcharts by nearly half a million for one region alone.



Cryoakira on 05 January 2007

broshnat said: Who said vgcharts is assuming any of that?... We actually have latest up to data figures in most regions as of the end of 2006 - 890k in UK, 350k in France, 275k in Canada, 50k in the rest of NA, 100k in Australia etc etc. It adds up to what we have funnily enough!
Main problem is : where does these european figures come from ? I'm french, I'm working in one the biggest french games retailers (Micromania), and we don't have figures for the french market, except what MS gives on the X360 (and I wasen't specifically talking about X360, but all consoles, so the same goes for Sony or Nntendo). In most of european contries, there aren't any real statistics about the real consoles and video games sales. Nothing like NPD or the jap institutes. Nobodies is able to exactly tell the actual numbers of units sold, only the number of units distributed.



Monty on 05 January 2007

Cryoakira said: Main problem is : where does these european figures come from ? I'm french, I'm working in one the biggest french games retailers (Micromania), and we don't have figures for the french market, except what MS gives on the X360 (and I wasen't specifically talking about X360, but all consoles, so the same goes for Sony or Nntendo). In most of european contries, there aren't any real statistics about the real consoles and video games sales. Nothing like NPD or the jap institutes. Nobodies is able to exactly tell the actual numbers of units sold, only the number of units distributed.
That's a lot of why I put little faith into sites like this one or nexgenwars. They are highly entertaining, and make for fun debates. However, take them for what they are worth as there is a lot of assumptions made when making out figures like this, and you'll find there is a LOT of play... meaning if you favor one console over another, you can push and pull figures just about any way you want. There are far too many areas of the world that you simply can't find hard stats for. If anybody tell you they know exact figures for these parts of the world, then I wouldn't trust them very far. One thing I enjoy about this site more that some others is that at least they started with a forum and will openly debate you, and allow you to question their methods/figures. That definitely says something, even if they are so very, very, very wrong!



NoIdea on 05 January 2007

Monty said: The extra 200k is what I've been saying all along in my estimate from Dec 25th to Dec 31st.
Are you kidding?



NoIdea on 05 January 2007

Monty said: These aren't "my" figures. NPD says 5.1 million for the US... I didn't make that up myself.
Actually they are figures you totally made up. Only 3.4 million X360's were sold in the US at the end of Novemember. http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4362&Itemid=2 (See I actually provide valid info with links, unlike you) And if you think 1.7 million were sold in December you are absolutely crazy.