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Forums - Sales Discussion - 360 Numbers don't add up!

Monty on 04 January 2007

I'm having trouble believing that nobody can use Google around here. It's really simple. Anyhow... "With the Microsoft Earnings Announcement, Microsoft has claimed to have sold 900,000 Xbox 360 systems from November 22nd to December 31st in North America." http://www.xbox365.com/news.cgi?id=GGPLPuPuPu01261653 MS reported that they sold 900k in NA in 2005. NPD reported that about 600k of those were from US. Using simple math, that would leave us to the conclusion that 300k of those were from other parts outside the US. However, I can't wait for somebody to tell me that those 300k were simply "shipped", and that 33% of all Xbox 360's made in 2005 were sitting on store shelves on Christmas 2005. Yeahhhh.... sure. Tell anybody who was looking for a 360 at the end of 2005 that 33% of all of them made were just lying around somewhere and see what they tell you. Canada and Mexico are not as small of a market as you people want to make them, and I'm 100% positive they tally more than 10% of the US total. I'd put the figure closer to 20%... however, your points are well taken, and nobody (myself included) has produced any proof of their claim in this area (other than anecdotal evidence). So, I'll do a little research and see if I can come up with an exact figure, and if somebody else can do the same, please chime in any moment. Until then, I believe here's where we stand... - 2.9 million sold in the US from launch until Oct 06 (source: NPD). - 2 million sold in between Nov 1st and Dec 25th, 06 (source NPD) - 2.87 million all other places in the world, outside NA (source: vgcharts) Total: 7.7 million Unknowns: - North America total (Mexico and Canada) for the last 14 months. - North America total for Dec 25th to Dec 31st 06. (at rate of 2 million in 8 weeks, that would be another 200k-250k approx for that last week) - Accuracy of vgcharts and/or NPD figures What I think: - I believe the NA total to be at least 20% of the US total (approx 5 million)... 1 million - I believe the total for NA's last week of 2006 to be in the neighborhood of 200k (lowballing again) - I believe that vgcharts is HIGHLY biased toward Nintendo and would not doubt their oversees numbers to be wrong, and I even question the accuracy of NPD as they do not include totals from the #1 console seller in the US - Wal Mart. However, I'll accept their stats for the sake of this argument. That leaves the total I believe to be at about 9 million. If you believe the Canada and Mexico totals 10% of the US, then you believe the total is around 8.5 million. The only way you can believe vgcharts' number is if you think Canada Mexico virtually sold no Xbox 360's at all. I'd like to point out once again, that I think I'm fighting an incredibly fair fight and using a lot of give and take, but getting none in return. It's interesting how many of you suddenly are pointing out sources showing that NPD figures do not show Canada now, but just a day ago I was getting beat up right and left saying I was full of crap for suggesting that. All I'm getting is "take", with no "give". I'm also point by point backing up my stats and admitting when I'm wrong... which does happen. And again, I'd like to say that when the final tallies are made, I'll gladly take my lumps if I'm wrong (I won't run and hide). All I ask is to do the same when we get some confirmation of total sold. Fair enough, eh?



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ICStats on 04 January 2007

Monty said: You guys are right... I did mix up the first set of numbers in the 3.2 million. I used older NPD stats, the newer ones that I posted were recently readjusted by NPD. Anyhow, I have no problem admitting when I was wrong, but apparently nobody here can do the same. You all were dead wrong about NPD being all of NA - or a combination of US and Canada. They are US only, as I proved. Anyhow, revisiting my initial numbers, with the correction to 2.9 million... - NPD number of 2.9million from Nov 05-Oct 06 (US only) - The NPD number of 2 million from Nov 1st to Dec 25th (assuming it is NA) - My estimate of 1.5 million for the rest of NA from Nov 05 to Oct 06 - vgcharts estimate of the rest of the world from Nov 05 to Dec 06 of 2.76 million We've narrowed down the only number in contention is the rest of NA... Canada and Mexico for 12 months (Nov 05-Oct 06). A lot of you are trying to say that 12 months of Canada and Mexico would only be 300k... that's simply crap. We know for certain that they sold nearly 300k to both territories in 2005. MS released data showing they sold 900k in NA, and we can use the NPD data to filter out what was from the US on Nov 05 and Dec 05, to find that nearly 300k sold in Canada and Mexico those two months. I'd say it's pretty conservative to say that Canada and Mexico sold another 1 million on top of that for the entire year of 2006. Again, all my numbers are extremely lowballing everything, and giving you guys every benefit of the doubt. I've proven you wrong on the NA, yet you now want to pretend Canada and Mexico sales are meaningless to the point of being ridiculous. Still, giving every benefit to you people, the numbers still add up to over 9 million!
Again it's your estimate for Canada+Mexico that doesn't make much sense. 1.5 million is pure speculation on your part. We don't have so much proof but here is one example of Canada selling less than 10% of US: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051214/xbox_sales_051214/20051214?hub=Entertainment "32,100 consoles sold in Canada in November and another 325,900 south of the border, NPD reports" That makes Canada 9.8% of US sales during that month. And considering Canada population is under 10% than US expecting much more would be ridiculous. If you don't have a link to back up your 1.5 million estimate it's not worth anything here. About the "900,000 consoles in North America" statement, I guess someone lied there considering we have NPD numbers adding up to only 610,000 in US and about 60,000 in Canada for that period. Those numbers are off by 230,000./



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j91137125 on 04 January 2007

ICStats said: We don't have so much proof but here is one example of Canada selling less than 10% of US: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051214/xbox_sales_051214/20051214?hub=Entertainment "32,100 consoles sold in Canada in November and another 325,900 south of the border, NPD reports"
This is my first post.. and i've read this entire series of posts on this subject.. But that link shows an article dated December 14th of '05. I don't know if i know what i'm talking about, and most likely i may just be ignorant of the actual point being made, so i don't know if this post makes any difference.. and there's a 90% chance that i don't even know what the hell i'm talking about, but just thought i'd interject and point out a potentially redundant observation.. but one thing, that link shows that 32,100 in Canada, and 325,900 in Mexico were sold in November of '05 alone.. so that equals 358,000 sold in November '05 alone.. so i dont' see why 1.14 million consols couldn't have been sold in the past 12 months to equal Monty's 1.5 million consols sold.. but also, once again, i honestly might just be completely oblivious to what's going on, or i might not have the facts straight either. But thought i'd contribute to the convo..



Cryoakira on 04 January 2007

ICStats said: About the "900,000 consoles in North America" statement, I guess someone lied there considering we have NPD numbers adding up to only 610,000 in US and about 60,000 in Canada for that period. Those numbers are off by 230,000./
Maybe nobody lied. MS sold 900k to retailers. Retailers sold 670k to users. @j91137125 "South of the frontier" is the US (canadian frontier), not Mexico ;)



Monty on 04 January 2007

Some of you are citing the 8 days worth of sales in Canada (Nov 22nd 2005 - Nov 30th 2005) as proof that Canada sells 10% of the US. However, I really believe that an 8 day period of sales during a very shortage filled launch is hardly conclusive proof of this. However,as I said, if it is 10%, then that is 500k. How many do you people believe that Mexico sold in the last 14 months? Most here say they believe it would be less than Canada, but in the same ballpark. Lets say 300k just for fun, as I highly doubt it could be any lower than that. Granted they dont sell a lot, but over a 14 month time period thats just 21,000 a month. So going with most of YOUR figures, Canada/Mexico sold around 800k. Lets plug that in to what we know: - 2.9 million sold in the US from launch until Oct 06 (source: NPD). - 2 million sold in between Nov 1st and Dec 25th, 06 (source NPD) - 2.87 million all other places in the world, outside NA (source: vgcharts) - 800k for the rest of NA - 200k for the last week of Dec 2006 in the US That is 8.7 million. If you believe the NA total to only be 400k, then youre still above vgcharts at 8.3 million. Keep in mind were not even adding in 2007 yet, and vgcharts was at 7.9 at the end of the year. I think Ive more than proven my point. Unless you believe NA sold ZERO consoles in the last 14 months, there is no way you can believe vgcharts as being accurate. And if you believe that Canada and Mexico sold no consoles in 14 months, there may be no reasoning with you...



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Monty on 04 January 2007

broshnat said: Well we can continue to pick holes if you want. The 2m Nov - Dec was for NORTH AMERICA, not just USA. It's your 800k figure that is still the problem
You're missing the big picture.... you have to believe that ZERO consoles were sold in Mexico and Canada to believe vgcharts number. My point is there were some sold. It doesn't matter the exact number... the fact is if ANY were sold in those two territories, then vgcharts is wrong. You said 400k a few posts back. If that's what you believe than vgcharts is not correct in their end of the year 7.9 number... it's impossible. My original point was that the numbers don't add up. No matter how you look at it, they still don't add up.



Diomedes1976 on 04 January 2007

Monty give it up ...you arent convincing anyone everyone is opposed to your point of view ....rest of NA is 10% or less than USA and thats about it .If you look closely you will see this page has always some sales added to the official NPD data for USA in its NA page ...thats the data for rest of NA .And the added number is 5.2 million in the best of the scenarios possible (providing the especulation of the other day about 2 million for november/december is correct and it doesnt end up in half as the estimations of november ) .



ICStats on 04 January 2007

j91137125 said: ICStats said: We don't have so much proof but here is one example of Canada selling less than 10% of US: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051214/xbox_sales_051214/20051214?hub=Entertainment "32,100 consoles sold in Canada in November and another 325,900 south of the border, NPD reports" This is my first post.. and i've read this entire series of posts on this subject.. But that link shows an article dated December 14th of '05. I don't know if i know what i'm talking about, and most likely i may just be ignorant of the actual point being made, so i don't know if this post makes any difference.. and there's a 90% chance that i don't even know what the hell i'm talking about, but just thought i'd interject and point out a potentially redundant observation.. but one thing, that link shows that 32,100 in Canada, and 325,900 in Mexico were sold in November of '05 alone.. so that equals 358,000 sold in November '05 alone.. so i dont' see why 1.14 million consols couldn't have been sold in the past 12 months to equal Monty's 1.5 million consols sold.. but also, once again, i honestly might just be completely oblivious to what's going on, or i might not have the facts straight either. But thought i'd contribute to the convo..
No no no, this is a Canadian article so "south of the border" means USA. It is not 325k in Mexico. NPD doesn't measure Mexico. In fact X360 wasn't even launched in Mexico until February 2, 2006..



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Monty on 04 January 2007

broshnat said: Hmmm, well you aren't disputing the Japan / Others numbers but you seem to think the NA figure should be about 1 million higher (6.2m vs 5.2m) to summarise your 'argument'. 2.9 m in the USA sold as of October. Taking 10% for the rest of NA gives 3.2m (as given by this site). Add 2m for Nov / Dec gives 5.2m (also as given). Try it another way. 2.9m sold in USA as of October. 510k November. 3.4m total in USA as of November. Add your 10% for rest of NA and you get 3.75m (as given by this site) at the end of November NA - 550k of which was in November. 2m Nov + Dec NA leaves 1.45m in December. This as a jump from 550k seems a bit high personally so I'd be a little cautious about this number anyway, but however you look at it you get 5.2 million
It's not that I don't disagree with the other numbers outside of NA, it's just that I'm trying to simplify the debate into the easiest to prove area to show that numbers presented here are obviously way lower than they are supposed to be. The crux of this argument is best proven by showing that vgcharts is not adding in a single unit for Canada and Mexico. Let's use figures that we have for just the US: "Microsoft’s Xbox 360 is on track to reach our 2006 sales estimate of 4.5 million units in the U.S." http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12280 The 360 sold 610K in 2005 to the US. That's 5.1 million in US sales alone. What I am asking is why here at vgcharts is adding in virtually ZERO consoles for Canada and Mexico. Even if merely 400K units were sold in both territories in 14 months, then that would still place vgcharts numbers for "the Americas" at being well off. I still firmly believe that the 360 is over 9 million WW, but for the sake of this debate I'm trying to go VERY conservative in every estimate, and trying to narrow it down to just NA to show how the numbers do not fit at all. I personally believe that vgcharts is misrepresenting the numbers that are much harder to come by (such as Canada and Mexico). Perhaps it is an honest mistake, but it still seems odd to me that this site is so far under most expert's estimates.



ICStats on 04 January 2007

I beg to differ, vgcharts is counting over 300,000 for Canada and Mexico. Sales in US through October were 2.9 million. Sales in US through November were 3.4 million. Sales in US through December were 4.9 million we speculate. VGcharts shows 5.26m which leaves 360,000 accounted for Canada & Mexico



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