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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ship v Sold Wii/PS3/360 - Dec 2013 and post adjustments.

Max King of the Wild on 28 January 2013
kowenicki said:
Max King of the Wild said:

I love your ps3 estimations. I don't know why you think the Ps2 outshipped it's q4 numbers in q2 and q3 (slowest time of the year) and double it's q1 numbers. Also, you've been heralding the demise of the consoles then the shipments are better than you were anticipating by a good amount. On top of these "terrible" numbers for current generation consoles you think last gen is still get substantial amount of support and going the opposite direction of what trends for all consoles (current and last gen) showed in prior quarters and is increasing YoY. Then you somehow believe the 360 is going to increase it's gap on the ps3 with adjustments but fail to realize Sony just needs to ship 4mil in the 2 busiest months to keep the gap equal which is highly plausible in my opinion. Especially you estimate 2 million for the month of October so 2mil in Nov and Dec are pretty easy. So your estimates are either off or Sony's shipments will be close to 74.3 and be the same difference as VGC numbers. If that happens I want you to be as vocal for adjustments you were clamoring for with the 360. Which for some reason you think the 360 is "clearly" overtracked by the latest reports yet the latest reports of Sony showed similar numbers but you were playing damage control when those numbers came out.

You point at your obscure Sony release that is meant to give a general idea of how their business is doing to support your estimates. I'll point to solid shipped figures.

70mil ps3's as of start of November.
1.4 - Q1
1.2 - Q2
.9 - Q3 (Christmas quarter)
.6 - Q4... And in Mid summer you somehow expect this trend to reverse... You expect Sony to have shipped 54% of their last years Ps2 numbers during the slowest points of the year. Yet this gens sales are sinking like a rock. I would think it would make more sense to think both gens are decreasing... not one 13 year old console increasing while current gen is on a sharp decline. Especially since you highly underestimated 360's Q4 performance. I would think it would underestimate the ps3's performance as well.


I will be.

The rest of this is a rambling incoherent load of old nonsense.  I don't make any claims in this thread, I just post numbers. The estimates are based on what we know and have interpreted. Simple. 

Well I'm glad.

It was at 2am when I wrote it so I'm sure it's on the verge of incoherent but the idea is easily understandable. The estimates are not what we know. And the numbers I posted show the opposite trend of what your estimates say. I don't know why you think this gen is falling so drastically (even though 360 outperformed your expectations) yet last gen is increasing and shipped 54% of last years totals in it's slow months. It just doesn't add up or make sense.



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Max King of the Wild on 31 January 2013

So Kowenicki, you have been riding the "this gen is sinking in sales like a rock" then Nintendo releases figures showing sales are more than what VGC has been tracking. Do you still feel they are dropping fast even though you didn't expect the sales shown?



Max King of the Wild on 01 February 2013

Interesting. I really don't think they are as bad as you are making them out to be. I honestly think the Wii U was early and Nintendo managed the Wii terribly and should have extended the generation.



ethomaz on 19 April 2013

2.14m on shelves... outch.



scat398 on 17 May 2013

Looks like 360 is under tacked by about 500 to 750 thousand at this point. Supply chain for MS should be around 1-1.5.



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Seece on 18 November 2013

Interesting turn of events!!



 

ironmanDX on 18 November 2013

Hmm, this race was close all the way to the end.... Well, not all the way...



thismeintiel on 12 January 2014

It's probably time to update the PS3 chart. Especially when you link it to other people to prove the PS3 is overtracked. The announcement of 80M+ was for Nov 1st. As of Nov 2nd, VGC puts it at 79.65M, or ~350K on shelves. Maybe 400K-500K, since VGC includes an extra day WW and 2 extra days in Japan.



 

Lawlight on 24 January 2014

MS stuffing the channels again in Q3...



Lawlight on 24 January 2014
kowenicki said:
Lawlight said:
MS stuffing the channels again in Q3...


yep, they forced all those retailers to buy a console in its 9th year on the market and in serious decline... and those suckers just threw money at them.


Well, it's not like 25% of their shipped X1s are still in stock or anything...