I am guessing that Nintendo will adopt the same strategy they took with the 3DS early on - Allow 3rd parties some time to release content after launch before releasing games of their own.

However the 3DS sold underwhelmingly by launching in March 2011; June does not seem any different. Rumors are circulating in terms of Cafe software and the two June indicators for me are E3 and GTA5. I'd imagine that at E3 2012, Nintendo would showcase the software, only to say that in a mere two weeks, it will be on shelves. Having GTA5 as one of the launch titles would be very impressive.

I suppose you're right, but Nintendo will lunch it in November, like every other home console. They tried something a bit different with 3DS and it hasn't yet paid off. Dependant on that and how good the launch line up is, will depend when the console is launched. 

It will launch Q2/Q3. There is evidence for this and it makes sense for what they are trying to do.

I'm estimating they'll release it in either Sep or Nov.  Those seem to be Nintendo's favorite months for releasing products.  But I wouldn't just ignore a May-July release either.  When they announce Project Cafe this year, they many not want a whole year to go by before releasing it.  Or they might just wait till E3, hype it, and then release it a few weeks later.  If I was Nintendo, I would go for that last idea, hyping it at E3 2012 and releasing around July 1-7.

While I agree GTA5 would be a great launch title. Nintendo will not launch the Cafe in June 2012. Nintendo will launch in the fall/winter as they have for the last few generations. Don't worry about the software line up Nintendo will probably have quit a few doozies ready for us.

I'd be very suprised if Cafe launched early 2012, it wouldn't make much sense. Also Nintendo has seen how poorly 3DS did so far launching early in the year. People tend to buy in the fall/winter and Nintendo will want to have big numbers to show stock holders.

Nintendo will be playing Cafe's launch as safely as possible. So don't expect them to deviate much from their tried and true forumla!

No. Launching a handheld early is one thing but a console release at that time won't do anybody any good. Third parties will be far more critical on the sales Nintendo makes on the home console early on. There's no doubt about that especailly since the Wii 2 will be more expensive to develop for if the rumours of it being powerful is true. And I mean original content not ports of 360 or PS3 games.

If the sales don't come third parties won't develop for it. Wii 2 needs to come in the fall with at least one or two heavy hitters to drive sales. After that then they can do that stupid let crappy 3rd party games have room to sell.

July-august 2012...

I would say that depends on how many of the rumors about the system are true so far. If this system is more comparable in power to the 360/PS3 than to the 720/PS4 and Nintendo's goal really is to get 3rd party multiplats on their system, they need to release as soon as possible. Releasing in April/May of 2012 would probably give them a year to 18 months before another next gen system is released, and 3rd parties may start releasing games on those platforms instead.

If Nintendo is expecting to get the same 3rd party games as the 720/PS4 then they can probably wait til November 2012. I think the Wii has enough life left in it to limp along as Nintendo's only home console until Fall 2012 in the West, but I think that Wii will be completely dead in Japan, accept for if/when Dragon Quest X releases. So I'm not sure Nintendo would want to be such a non-factor in the home console market in Japan for such a long time.

May/July/August 2012.

My bet is August to October of 2012. Maybe August in Japan and latter in the rest of the world to avoid sellouts.