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Forums - Nintendo - Reggie talks about Cafe and Wii price Cut

Nintendogamer on 06 May 2011
Ail said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
Yakuzaice said:
sensebringer said:

I don't know, sometimes I feel that some guys in the forums believe that they are more inteligent than big corporations like nintendo, Sony or Microsoft. If nintendo says they expect to sell 16 millions 3ds in this fiscal year, I think they must have a plan. They are not idiots, They are businessmen. I think the 3DS is selling quite well for the software it has at the moment.

Nintendo missed their shipment projections on all three systems last quarter.  The Wii especially had its number adjusted down several times throughout the fiscal year.  That is why people have been pessimistic in regards to Nintendo's expectations.


Also, when a company does A and is successful, does B and is not successful, and continues to to B, the company actually is being dumber than those pointing out they should go back to doing A.

In all fairness Nintendo has been less than stellar at making predictions these last 5 years.

The first 2 years it grossly understimated the Wii success.

The third year it made its number because the wii was still selling out and it decided to manufacture exactly what it said it would sell.

And the last two years it significantly failed to predict the Wii slow down and significantly missed its projections.

So yes, at this point a random vgchartz poster is probably as likely as Nintendo themselves to predict what their sales are going to be...

They will be way off again, with 13M projected, I expect about 10M to be honest,  I think they can be a bit too optimistic.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

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Zlejedi on 06 May 2011
sensebringer said:

I don't know, sometimes I feel that some guys in the forums believe that they are more inteligent than big corporations like nintendo, Sony or Microsoft. If nintendo says they expect to sell 16 millions 3ds in this fiscal year, I think they must have a plan. They are not idiots, They are businessmen. I think the 3DS is selling quite well for the software it has at the moment. Gamers don't buy consoles to stare at them, they buy consoles to play them. Right now 3ds does not have the software. if a new pokemon game, or a new Mario game hits the market and bombs thats the time I will worry about the 3ds sales. Right now theres nothing to worry, the 3ds is receiving the sales worth the software it has right now. This my opinion. 

You know they reduced forecast for 2010 twice and even then missed it by about 1 milion units?



PROUD MEMBER OF THE PSP RPG FAN CLUB

Nintendogamer on 06 May 2011
Zlejedi said:
sensebringer said:

I don't know, sometimes I feel that some guys in the forums believe that they are more inteligent than big corporations like nintendo, Sony or Microsoft. If nintendo says they expect to sell 16 millions 3ds in this fiscal year, I think they must have a plan. They are not idiots, They are businessmen. I think the 3DS is selling quite well for the software it has at the moment. Gamers don't buy consoles to stare at them, they buy consoles to play them. Right now 3ds does not have the software. if a new pokemon game, or a new Mario game hits the market and bombs thats the time I will worry about the 3ds sales. Right now theres nothing to worry, the 3ds is receiving the sales worth the software it has right now. This my opinion. 

You know they reduced forecast for 2010 twice and even then missed it by about 1 milion units?


THey will redcue their March 2012 forcast too, from 13M to eventually about 9M.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

Viper1 on 06 May 2011
LordTheNightKnight said:
Viper1 said:

OoT wasn't a killer app on the N64?  Are you kidding me?  7.6 million in sales on a 33 million userbase? 


That made it a hit game, not a killer app. Call of Duty sells a lot, but it doesn't tend to give the PS3 and 360 sales boosts (at least not huge ones like with Monster Hunter on PSP and Nintendogs on the DS). These kinds of games tend to sell to the existing customers.

I still don't see how you are claiming that OoT was not a killer app.  I know plenty of PS gamers that bought an N64 just for that game.   And on that note, I know a few PSP owners that are getting a 3DS for OoT.

 

noname2200 said:
Viper1 said:

Software sells hardware. The early launch period didn't really have much software but starting with the summer period, it's an all out barrage of heavy hitting software.

Oh? Which ones?

Ocarina of Time
Resident Evil: The Mercenaries
Star Fox 64
Kid Icarus: Uprising
Mario 3DS
Mario Kart 3DS
MGS3
MegaMan Legends 3

A couple of others are tentative and there is always Nintendo's E3 surprises. 



The rEVOLution is not being televised

LordTheNightKnight on 07 May 2011
Ail said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
Yakuzaice said:
sensebringer said:

I don't know, sometimes I feel that some guys in the forums believe that they are more inteligent than big corporations like nintendo, Sony or Microsoft. If nintendo says they expect to sell 16 millions 3ds in this fiscal year, I think they must have a plan. They are not idiots, They are businessmen. I think the 3DS is selling quite well for the software it has at the moment.

Nintendo missed their shipment projections on all three systems last quarter.  The Wii especially had its number adjusted down several times throughout the fiscal year.  That is why people have been pessimistic in regards to Nintendo's expectations.


Also, when a company does A and is successful, does B and is not successful, and continues to to B, the company actually is being dumber than those pointing out they should go back to doing A.

In all fairness Nintendo has been less than stellar at making predictions these last 5 years.

The first 2 years it grossly understimated the Wii success.

The third year it made its number because the wii was still selling out and it decided to manufacture exactly what it said it would sell.

And the last two years it significantly failed to predict the Wii slow down and significantly missed its projections.

So yes, at this point a random vgchartz poster is probably as likely as Nintendo themselves to predict what their sales are going to be...


True, but wouldn't call that "fariness" as much as "unfortnately" (for themselves and for gamers who got burned by their poor guessing about the games we like*).

* Which is still a variety of games though.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

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Ail on 07 May 2011
LordTheNightKnight said:
Ail said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
Yakuzaice said:
sensebringer said:

I don't know, sometimes I feel that some guys in the forums believe that they are more inteligent than big corporations like nintendo, Sony or Microsoft. If nintendo says they expect to sell 16 millions 3ds in this fiscal year, I think they must have a plan. They are not idiots, They are businessmen. I think the 3DS is selling quite well for the software it has at the moment.

Nintendo missed their shipment projections on all three systems last quarter.  The Wii especially had its number adjusted down several times throughout the fiscal year.  That is why people have been pessimistic in regards to Nintendo's expectations.


Also, when a company does A and is successful, does B and is not successful, and continues to to B, the company actually is being dumber than those pointing out they should go back to doing A.

In all fairness Nintendo has been less than stellar at making predictions these last 5 years.

The first 2 years it grossly understimated the Wii success.

The third year it made its number because the wii was still selling out and it decided to manufacture exactly what it said it would sell.

And the last two years it significantly failed to predict the Wii slow down and significantly missed its projections.

So yes, at this point a random vgchartz poster is probably as likely as Nintendo themselves to predict what their sales are going to be...


True, but wouldn't call that "fariness" as much as "unfortnately" (for themselves and for gamers who got burned by their poor guessing about the games we like*).

* Which is still a variety of games though.

the biggest effect this has had is how much the stock has tanked since reaching its peak.

Investors really do not like companies that keep missing their predictions as this gives an impression that those companies do not have a good handle on their business ( that might be true for Nintendo seeing how they handled the Wii the last two years).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Joelcool7 on 07 May 2011
Mr Khan said:
Yakuzaice said:
Joelcool7 said:

I decided to check the numbers again I remember the Nintendo announcement of selling 3.6 million units. A quick google search for articles shows tons of articles saying Nintendo sold 3.6 million units. I would like to see a source saying that Nintendo only shipped 3.6-million and did not sell that many units.As far as I can tell the official sales results were 3.6 million.

As for Nintendo not meeting expectations. Falling short 400K is actually a big failure and since launch month sales have continued to dip. I think Nintendo had alot more faith in their die hard user base and early adopters then they could actually count on.

As for Reggie spinning, his statement I was refering too happened right nearby the launch. It was not a spin for damage control. I'd have to take Reggies word for it, because the facts back his story. Reggie stated that Nintendo wasn't advertising much to keep demand from surpassing supply. I fully think that this was Nintendo's strategy and he was being honest.

Ok, so you're just messing with me right?  You've been on VGChartz for four years.  Surely you understand the difference between shipped and sold.

Here are the numbers Nintendo provided for the US and Europe.

 


Note only the first two weeks of the Europe numbers fall within the quarter.

We know from Media Create that the 3DS sold 835,933 units in Japan through April 3rd.  Those three together does not come anywhere close to 3.6 million.

Reggie's quote was from an article in the USA Today more than two weeks after the US launch.  By that time Nintendo was below their own expectations in all three markets.  The interviewer asked if they were 'purposefully underpromoting it' and Reggie never addressed that in his answer.

Usually when Nintendo says sold they mean sold, that's probably what threw him off in this case, as Nintendo's usually proven trustworthy on the whole shipped v. sold thing


Yes usually when Nintendo says sold they mean sold and if they mean shipped they tend to say shipped. I remember the story on the news and it was reported all over, even a quick google search had all the stories saying sold, not shipped.

Yes Yakuzaice I do know the difference between shipped and sold. I was going by Nintendo's own press release in which they said they sold 3.6 million units. I also haven't been online for a few weeks infact I think almost a month so I missed alot of the news during that time period.

I have been on gaming forums and discussing game sales for at least ten years. I am not an idiot.



-JC7

"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer

 

bazmeistergen on 07 May 2011
LordTheNightKnight said:
Yakuzaice said:
sensebringer said:

I don't know, sometimes I feel that some guys in the forums believe that they are more inteligent than big corporations like nintendo, Sony or Microsoft. If nintendo says they expect to sell 16 millions 3ds in this fiscal year, I think they must have a plan. They are not idiots, They are businessmen. I think the 3DS is selling quite well for the software it has at the moment.

Nintendo missed their shipment projections on all three systems last quarter.  The Wii especially had its number adjusted down several times throughout the fiscal year.  That is why people have been pessimistic in regards to Nintendo's expectations.


Also, when a company does A and is successful, does B and is not successful, and continues to to B, the company actually is being dumber than those pointing out they should go back to doing A.

Hmmm... But A might not work anymore. I think they spend a lot more time than any of us researching the market. There conclusions might be wrong, but they certainly have more evidence to make a call than we do.



Yes.

www.spacemag.org - contribute your stuff... satire, comics, ideas, debate, stupidy stupid etc.

bazmeistergen on 07 May 2011
Ail said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
Ail said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
Yakuzaice said:
sensebringer said:

I don't know, sometimes I feel that some guys in the forums believe that they are more inteligent than big corporations like nintendo, Sony or Microsoft. If nintendo says they expect to sell 16 millions 3ds in this fiscal year, I think they must have a plan. They are not idiots, They are businessmen. I think the 3DS is selling quite well for the software it has at the moment.

Nintendo missed their shipment projections on all three systems last quarter.  The Wii especially had its number adjusted down several times throughout the fiscal year.  That is why people have been pessimistic in regards to Nintendo's expectations.


Also, when a company does A and is successful, does B and is not successful, and continues to to B, the company actually is being dumber than those pointing out they should go back to doing A.

In all fairness Nintendo has been less than stellar at making predictions these last 5 years.

The first 2 years it grossly understimated the Wii success.

The third year it made its number because the wii was still selling out and it decided to manufacture exactly what it said it would sell.

And the last two years it significantly failed to predict the Wii slow down and significantly missed its projections.

So yes, at this point a random vgchartz poster is probably as likely as Nintendo themselves to predict what their sales are going to be...


True, but wouldn't call that "fariness" as much as "unfortnately" (for themselves and for gamers who got burned by their poor guessing about the games we like*).

* Which is still a variety of games though.

the biggest effect this has had is how much the stock has tanked since reaching its peak.

Investors really do not like companies that keep missing their predictions as this gives an impression that those companies do not have a good handle on their business ( that might be true for Nintendo seeing how they handled the Wii the last two years).


The stock market is plagued with selfish maniacs that manipulate prices. They sicken me. Totally off topic, but its like a trigger phrase for rage.



Yes.

www.spacemag.org - contribute your stuff... satire, comics, ideas, debate, stupidy stupid etc.

LordTheNightKnight on 07 May 2011
bazmeistergen said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
Yakuzaice said:
sensebringer said:

I don't know, sometimes I feel that some guys in the forums believe that they are more inteligent than big corporations like nintendo, Sony or Microsoft. If nintendo says they expect to sell 16 millions 3ds in this fiscal year, I think they must have a plan. They are not idiots, They are businessmen. I think the 3DS is selling quite well for the software it has at the moment.

Nintendo missed their shipment projections on all three systems last quarter.  The Wii especially had its number adjusted down several times throughout the fiscal year.  That is why people have been pessimistic in regards to Nintendo's expectations.


Also, when a company does A and is successful, does B and is not successful, and continues to to B, the company actually is being dumber than those pointing out they should go back to doing A.

Hmmm... But A might not work anymore. I think they spend a lot more time than any of us researching the market. There conclusions might be wrong, but they certainly have more evidence to make a call than we do.


Except A never stopped working. Making mainstream games is A, and that had not stopped being a successful tactic. Making quirky games just to please themselves and reviewers is B, and that has never worked.

And just because you have evidence doesn't mean a company is somehow smarter. The US auto industry has suffered crashes twice in the past 50 years because they refused to stop doing what wasn't working.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs