I think their goal for the next fiscal year of 16 million is a reasonable and reachable goal, but they will need to make good decisions.
My suggestions
-Release the 3 mid size 1st party titles during the summer to avoid having extremely low sales. Zelda in June, Starfox in July/August (confirm for West), and Kid Icarus for August/September. Also help promote any significant 3rd party title that releases during this time (Resident Evil: Mercenaries). Promote the e-shop and new online features that are being added.
-New marketing campaign/approach. The commercials are bland, do not have the same appeal as something like the "Wii would like to play" campaign.
-For the holidays release Mario Kart and new system color(s) (maybe white and or pink). Help promote any significant 3rd party releases (hopefully games like Assassin's Creed, Metal Gear Solid, Kingdom Hearts etc, will release during this time). Make sure there are multiple big 3rd party games for each region. If the 3rd party releases aren't there release Mario 3DS during Q4 as well.
- Heavy promotion during the holidays. During their early years, the DS and Wii were constantly promoted during the holidays.
- Release Mario 3DS Q1 2012 to help software sales stay high.
Personally I think that is enough to reach the 16 million target for the fiscal year.
For the next fiscal year, I'd hope they will have Paper Mario and Animal Crossing ready to go in the first half. Then some combination of 2D Mario/Brain Age/Pokemon Grey/Smash Bros. for the second half.
Reevaluate price for 2012. Especially depending on the NGP price point and its performance.
2013 - Release follow-ups to any hit DS game that has not shown up on the 3DS yet, including new Pokemon generation. Release the first 3DS revision.
2014 and beyond - Release sequels, B-list franchises that haven't shown up yet, and concentrate on new experiences.
Using this strategy I feel confident that the 3DS would eventually get into the 90-120 million range. A big drop off from the DS, but it is a low risk and highly profitable strategy for this generation.