I'm not going to even read your OP. Your title is just wrong on all logical levels.

Nintendo's not going to create a system that is merely on par with the PS360 and I gurantee you MS, at the very least, would have launched a new system at the latest by 2013 regardless of what Nintendo is doing.

The buzz/hype and, if 3DS is any indication, strong 3rd party support will force MSony to push new systems out.

The next Nintendo system will be 3-4x more powerful than the PS360 with any base features, like strong network, large internal storage, HD capable drives, etc.; along with its unique Nintendo features.

2012 is the beginning of the next generation. Nintendo will have the most capable system for no more than 12 months before MSony release their marginally more powerful systems creating a environment similar to PS2 vs. Xbox/GC in terms of raw power.

I just want to point out that the idea of winning 'generations' seems to be dying here. It is a given that no console will lack for 3rd party titles unlike last generation so the only question is really how much more or less appealing that console is relative to another console based upon the idea of having around the same games to play, so obviously the eco-system and overall features will matter even more so than ever before so that doesn't immediately sink the chances of a late entrant to the console market so long as they have an established reputation.

you could argue that Wii2 is competing with platforms with huge base too, it goes both ways....

Especially if it mainly gets port from PS3/360 games...

Besides you can't really compare Wii2 starting a new gen with the previous gens transitions.

I believe it's the first time a console maker gets ready to announce the next console while the current gen consoles software is still around its peak. usually they wait for current gen consoles sales to be way down... ( and the reason they do is that Nintendo hardware and software sales are falling fast compared ot the others 2 console makers).

Right now, 2011 could actually be the peak year for the 360 and close to peak year for PS3 software. So both Sony and Microsoft do not have that many icentives to jump start a new gen...

And support for the current HD consoles really hasn't slowed down ( Acitivsion has no incentive to move to a new base as long as CoD keeps selling 20 million units every year at full price, we still have FF versus incoming, most likely a new GTA and so on...)

Development costs are still high, they arent going to simple abandon the PS3 and 360 because the Super Wii will be more powerful.

I will really hold off my judgement until we know more about Nintendo's next system, but my current thoughts.

If the console is only marginally more powerful the PS3/360 Sony and MS will not have need to move quickly.  If Nintendo catch's lightning in the bottle with another new control scheme the PS3/360 have both been able to add on to capabilities of the console and since it looks like the next Nintendo console wont have much of a power advantage what is to stop Sony and MS from reacting and bringing forth a similiar new capability to the current machines at lower cost and with a higher install base of consoles. 

I do not believe Nintendo will seel the next console at a loss. So I expect that the console will be more expensive than the PS3/360 at launch with less software and similiar capabilities.  Sure the Nintendo faithful will jump on board quickly, but dont expect the hardcore gamer crowd will. I also dont think that the new casual gamer crowd that bought into the Wii is the same type of consumer to look to upgrade quickly. I suspect a lot of them will be glad to be playing Wii Sports 5 years from now.