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Forums - Gaming - The $199 argument: 80% of console sales come after "mass market price"

 

The $199 argument: 80% of console sales come after "mass market price"

PS3 sales will double and consist at $199 78 37.14%
 
PS3 sales may increase, but not more than 50% 53 25.24%
 
PS3 sales may increase, but not more than 20% 34 16.19%
 
PS3 sales wont increase much at $199 11 5.24%
 
There is no such thing as... 19 9.05%
 
he doesn't know 60% of 3... 15 7.14%
 
Total:210

It's already doing quite well, it won't get a huge jump. And I also don't think the price is going to jump from $299 to $199 directly which should make the jump even less.



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worldwide it will have a huge effect, particularly in Europe, America sales will likely increase by nearly two fold, but software sales will only increase by an extra 1/3 as at this point, the only people buying the system are people who already have a 360 and can now afford to buy an extra PS3 or people who want two PS3's in thier household, the multi system owners will probably still buy multiplatform games on the 360 and people with two PS3's won't buy two copies of the same game every time they buy one



If the PS3 was cut to $199 right now, and we believe that 80% of a consoles sales would come after it hits that price point, the PS3 would go on to sell 245.5million units.

This is quite frankly ludicrous.

A price cut to $199 would provide quite the decent boost, but it's never going to be anywhere near as big as this theory would imply.



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kowenicki said:
Zlejedi said:
TheSource said:

We've been through this before if price was everything PS2, at $99 would be outselling everything rather easily. Price Cuts & TIMING make the difference.

PS3 isn't going to be under $200 until 2012 or later. PS2 was $200 in 2002.

2000 ---> 2002  vs. 2006 ---> 2012 is completely different from a timing perspective.

I also have trouble with the whole idea that people really cant afford $300. How hard is it to save $25 a month for a year? Thats how I used to buy games when I was in middle school and highschool. Some people won't buy because they think PS3 isn't worth $300 but thats a different issue.

The other problem with this argument is Wii & X360. Both are still $200. Do you think Wii has only sold 1/5 of its eventual penetration because it isn't a  "mass market" price yet?

Not everyone lives in America

For some territories 300$ can be a half of monthly salary (minimum salary in Poland is 350 euro, average is 800 but people in student age often get 500-600) and there are places in the world where people are lucky to get 200$ per month.

Also lower price point makes it easier to buy it as second or third machine for hardcore gamers.

350 euros is $500, 800 euros is $1,142

Your point?



kowenicki said:

I would have loved to have seen the rationale behind some of the votes for sustained double sales...

Maybe some understood it as "will doulbe it's current LTD sales..." like I did i guess...sigh...

Well, he did say that after mass market, 80% of the consoles sales are to come, so I assumed end of life sales and double of what it has now is not unatainable. 

Although I did wander why there wasn't a 250million choice.



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kowenicki said:
Zkuq said:
kowenicki said:
Zlejedi said:
TheSource said:

We've been through this before if price was everything PS2, at $99 would be outselling everything rather easily. Price Cuts & TIMING make the difference.

PS3 isn't going to be under $200 until 2012 or later. PS2 was $200 in 2002.

2000 ---> 2002  vs. 2006 ---> 2012 is completely different from a timing perspective.

I also have trouble with the whole idea that people really cant afford $300. How hard is it to save $25 a month for a year? Thats how I used to buy games when I was in middle school and highschool. Some people won't buy because they think PS3 isn't worth $300 but thats a different issue.

The other problem with this argument is Wii & X360. Both are still $200. Do you think Wii has only sold 1/5 of its eventual penetration because it isn't a  "mass market" price yet?

Not everyone lives in America

For some territories 300$ can be a half of monthly salary (minimum salary in Poland is 350 euro, average is 800 but people in student age often get 500-600) and there are places in the world where people are lucky to get 200$ per month.

Also lower price point makes it easier to buy it as second or third machine for hardcore gamers.

350 euros is $500, 800 euros is $1,142

Your point?

i was clarifying...  my main point you have edited out.    

your point?

Since most electronics end with 1$=1euro rape exchange rate it doesn't really matter.

Anyway my point is that 33% reduction on PS3 is not much in NA but a shitload of diffrence in poorer regions of EMEA.



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I think the telling point here is it's going to take so long for PS3 to get to $199 that it won't have anywhere near the effect that one might expect if it fell to $199 in a shorter time frame. 2011 PS3 sales should be similar to 2010 sales, IF PS3 drops in price. After that I think annual PS3 sales will steadly drop regardless of price, then the next gen will launch in 2014. There are people who think $299 for a non b/c PS3 is too expensive, and they will surely buy at $199. But those people are a relatively small number.

But that's in America/EU. In many smaller markets PS3 is still pretty expensive, and in some cases (like here) the base 160Gig model is more expensive than, or the same price as, the 250Gig 360 Kinect bundle. In those markets it might be a little different, but those markets won't influence the global sales numbers.



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I see a 20% increase in sales in PS3 sales when PS3 reaches the $199 price point in 2012.  Of course it sales will probably have declined 10% by the time it gets to that price point, but a 10% increase is better than no increase.



kowenicki said:
TeddostheFireKing said:

worldwide it will have a huge effect, particularly in Europe, America sales will likely increase by nearly two fold, but software sales will only increase by an extra 1/3 as at this point, the only people buying the system are people who already have a 360 and can now afford to buy an extra PS3 or people who want two PS3's in thier household, the multi system owners will probably still buy multiplatform games on the 360 and people with two PS3's won't buy two copies of the same game every time they buy one


you really think hardware numbers will double in the US and Europe on a sustained basis?  really?

for the holidays yes, once it comes out of the holiday window it'll sell on par with the nubmers its posting this year



IDK any further price drops probably wont help much for any console. I mean don't get me wrong you will see a nice increase when they drop the price but it would probably only be a 20% increase in sales or less. But hey you can't predict how it would sale after a price drop i mean technically speaking there is 7 billion people on earth and 6 billion could probably buy one of the three consoles. Who knows maybe everyone will buy a video game console.