I think the telling point here is it's going to take so long for PS3 to get to $199 that it won't have anywhere near the effect that one might expect if it fell to $199 in a shorter time frame. 2011 PS3 sales should be similar to 2010 sales, IF PS3 drops in price. After that I think annual PS3 sales will steadly drop regardless of price, then the next gen will launch in 2014. There are people who think $299 for a non b/c PS3 is too expensive, and they will surely buy at $199. But those people are a relatively small number.
But that's in America/EU. In many smaller markets PS3 is still pretty expensive, and in some cases (like here) the base 160Gig model is more expensive than, or the same price as, the 250Gig 360 Kinect bundle. In those markets it might be a little different, but those markets won't influence the global sales numbers.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
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