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Forums - Sales - Analysts: PS3 Passes Xbox 360 Worldwide, Nintendo Successor Within A Year?

Gojimaster on 01 April 2011

The Wii prediction is a fail.  There is no way that the Wii is going to fall by 10 million units this year.  That is completely discounting the Holiday boost, price-cut boost, and other boosts from new games. 



 

Most anticipated games of 2011:

Uncharted 3,Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, Rocksmith

Modern Warfare 3, Super Mario 3D

 

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FattyDingDong on 01 April 2011

u posted this message on soo many threads.. just saying :)



I trust no one, not even myself.

FattyDingDong on 01 April 2011

Especially Nintendo fans, no offense i love Nintendo...



I trust no one, not even myself.

Tiannaisnowhotnotfat on 01 April 2011

So many 360s broke that even with the extended warrenty and MS and GS selling refurbished ones that it still has several million more still broken then ps3



thranx on 01 April 2011
ethomaz said:
RolStoppable said:

In the other thread that got locked I already pointed out that the 360 number is missing one quarter of its shipment data. What I didn't notice is that the same goes for the Wii. Only the PS3 has its calendar Q4 2010 data included. This sure is one credible analysis.

No. The numbers are not missing quarters... the numbers are active base.

Just active consoles count... broke consoles (RROD?) not count.

So makes sense PS3 was over 360 now... because the failure hate of PS3 is so much less than 360.

Using the VGC numbers for comparison:

PS3: 46.3m - 6.7% failure rate = 43.4m
360: 50.3m - 14.2% failure rate = 42.9m

Seems ok for me... 360 had a bigger failure rate with RROD and not everyone used the warranty.

Just remember, SHIPPED > SALES > ACTIVE BASE.


Just cause a 360 rrod does not mean its not still in use. See ms had this fantastic 3 year warranty so you send it back in and you get a refurb back. Yours is then repaired and sent to someone else. So in the end it had no net effect on loss of consoles. Only those not turned back into to ms would be lost, and even with those many people repair them and resell them. That point is moot.

 

Also where did you even get those percentages from?

 

I read the article here it did not state how they came to the active user base. Does anyone know?



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Metallicube on 01 April 2011

Yup, 2012 for the next Nintendo console sounds about right. Nintendo should spend this final year with some legit motion plus games (that aren't sport games), then ride out what is likely to be the last strong holiday season, perhaps with Pikmin 3, NSMB 2, and a price drop. Then at E3 they can have an N6 blowout and have it ready to go by christmas 2012.

There is no way Wii sales will fall by 10 million though, even with no new significant games it wouldn't sell that low. Zelda alone will allow Nintendo to surpass that prediction..



binary solo on 01 April 2011
ethomaz said:
RolStoppable said:

In the other thread that got locked I already pointed out that the 360 number is missing one quarter of its shipment data. What I didn't notice is that the same goes for the Wii. Only the PS3 has its calendar Q4 2010 data included. This sure is one credible analysis.

So makes sense PS3 was over 360 now... because the failure hate of PS3 is so much less than 360.

Best Freudian slip on a video game site ever.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

darthdevidem01 on 01 April 2011
Acevil said:
Grimes said:

These are the same guys that predicted 127 million PS3s would be sold.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=103336&page=1


Oh those guys, if I remember they are the ones that made the negative wii sales chart. Sorry but if it is the same guys, they are sony fanboys....no educated person with knowledge of an industry would make that many mistakes.

Could still be sold if most of the sales of a console come from $199 price point

*trollface.jpg*



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

NotStan on 01 April 2011
thismeintiel said:
NotStan said:
ClassicGamingWizzz said:
NotStan said:
ClassicGamingWizzz said:

i am ready to see the 360 users reaction, and it´s not good , LOL

world will end today !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As usual, a useful contribution to the thread by yours trully. 

@OT, That is pure guesstimation, when a site has to find alternative means of being proven correct over a what is quite frankly, a ridiculous prediction, you know that the intenet is going to pot.


Google images seem to be giving you A () speech impediment.

@ OP

Regardless of any crazy predictions they have made in the past, this one seems relatively spot on.  Just looking at that numbers we get here on VGC, the PS3 is in higher demand than the 360, even with Kinect's success, in most regions outside of America.  And with the price cut both will almost definitely get this year, its going to help push the PS3 even more.  I doubt that the Wii will only sell ~ 10 mil, but I do think the HUGE boost Wii normally gets during the holiday season won't be as large this year.

It was 1Am, I actually thought of editing an a in there, decided it wasn't worth my time



Disconnect and self destruct, one bullet a time.

Zlejedi on 01 April 2011
homer said:
ethomaz said:
RolStoppable said:

In the other thread that got locked I already pointed out that the 360 number is missing one quarter of its shipment data. What I didn't notice is that the same goes for the Wii. Only the PS3 has its calendar Q4 2010 data included. This sure is one credible analysis.

No. The numbers are not missing quarters... the numbers are active base.

Just active consoles count... broke consoles (RROD?) not count.

So makes sense PS3 was over 360 now... because the failure hate of PS3 is so much less than 360.

Using the VGC numbers for comparison:

PS3: 46.3m - 6.7% failure rate = 43.4m
360: 50.3m - 14.2% failure rate = 42.9m

Seems ok for me... 360 had a bigger failure rate with RROD and not everyone used the warranty.

Just remember, SHIPPED > SALES > ACTIVE BASE.


This is not very accurate. You can not just multiply the current base by the 360 phat's failure rate, and expect to get accurate numbers because the 360s has not been shown to have such a widespread failure rate, so the 360 still may have a larger active unit base than the ps3 lol. Regardless if the active base is now smaller than the 360's, the 360 still kicks the crap out of the ps3 in terms of software sales.

Yeah in software sales at VGC website.

IIRC Microst doesn't publish data on number of games sold in quaterly reports so there's no way to check it against Sony data.

Considering size of epic adjustments we have seen to hardware in previous 12 months which is much easier to track than software chances that software numbers for EMEA is accurate are close to zero.



PROUD MEMBER OF THE PSP RPG FAN CLUB