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Forums - Sales - 2011 PS3 Exclusive Release Schedule (Predict there Sales!)

Notorius.A.i.G on 20 March 2011
hudsoniscool said:
Notorius.A.i.G said:
hudsoniscool said:
Notorius.A.i.G said:

Many of your LT predictions seem low to me.

OT :

Released =

LittleBigPlanet 2 - 5.2 Million lifetime ( Leg, legs, legs ! )
Killzone 3 - 5.0 Million lifetime ( Better legs then Killzone 2. Heavy Bundles )
Yakuza 4 - 550,000

Still To Release =

Playstation Move Heroes - 350,000 - 500,000 ( I'm hoping I'm way off )
Socom 4 - 2.5 Million
Infamous 2 - 4.0 Million ( The UC2 of 2011 )
Resistance 3 - 2.8 Million
Uncharted 3 - 6.1 Million ( Great advertising. Better legs and much more frontloaded )
Sorcery - 5.0 Million ( Bundles and will be the first killer app for the Move )

To Be Determined =

Twisted Metal - 1.8 Million
Rachet and Clank : All 4 One - 2.1 Million
The Last Guardian - 1.8 Million

lbp2- 3 million

killzone 3- 2.5 million(not only did it not sales as well as kz2 first week, but it had lower metascore than predicted)

infamous 2- 2.3 million(first one is at 1.9 million so how do u expect it to double)

uncharted 3- 5.7 million

sorcery- im not sure but not including bundles less than 1 million

R and C all 4 1- less than a million

twisted metal- 2.5 million

the one that baffled me the most was your killzone 3 prediction. before the release of kz3 i said it wouldnt outsell kz2. it had like a 650k weeks 1. 5 million is like 7.5 times its week 1. thats the equivelent to halo reach which had a 4 million week 1 selling 30 million lifetime.  not to mention it underperformed with its reviews which tipicly means less legs, so 5 million or even 4 million is completly out of the question.

FW's aren't the only thing that determine a games lifetime sales. LittleBigPlanet had a opening of 300,000.
Now it's sitting at 4.3 Million. The reviews for Killzone 3 may hurt it's long term legs but GT5 and Reach are performing better then GT4 and Halo 3 although both had lower review scores. Lifetime sales of 4 - 5 Million  not out of reach.  Regarding your predictions :

Infamous 2 will see improvements and the review scores will reflect that. It will also get a bigger push then the original Infamous. I can see Infamous 2 reaching the 1.7 - 2.0 Million range by years end.

Rachet and Clank : All 4 One will pass 1 Million for sure. Both Rachets released this gen have done it. So why wouldn't All 4 One ? Especially with the multi - player addition

the first week sales of a sequel unless its made vast improvements do reflect its sales. so lbp's first week is irrelevent since it was a new ip. lb2 is tracking behind it i believe so theres no way it has legs near as good as it.

when u campare kilzone 3 to killzone 2 in its first 3 weeks its down so i dont see even with amazing legs(it wont have them)how it could reach 5 million. GT5 is only beating GT4 because GT5 launched in the winter. soon it wont be beating it and its legs dont look that good(out of the top 40). reach underscored criticly but i dont believe the fans think its worse than 3. besides it had a bigger launch than 3 so not relevent anyway.

  theres no way of knowing how good infamous 2 is going to be before it releases, no  way. so making the assumption that its going to be amazing is fanboyish.

 im sorry but your predictions show how extremly biased you are.

The only reason LBP is tracking higher then LBP2 is because LBP had the benefit of a holiday season. LBP2 could be stablizing in the 15,000 - 20,000 range until the holidays kick in. Legs aren't determined by the first month of sales. So basing Killzone 3's legs on the first three weeks of sales is irrelevant to the big picture. I also think Sony is going to heavily bundle this game to broaden it's audience. ( The same thing MS did with Forza )

GT5 is still selling 20,000 - 30,000 weekly. Bundles haven't started and it's still full price in many retailers I have been at. It may not be tracking higher then GT4 but it can still reach 10 Million even if it doesn't. Not to mention all the adjustments GT5 has gotten. ( It was adjusted up in 2010 by around 225,000 - 275,000 if I'm not mistaken. Then it was adjusted up by 480,000 in 2011. ) What if GT5 was adjusted another 175,000 - 250,000 for this quarter ?

So I'm being optimistic about Infamous 2 and it's fanboyish ? You questioned why I thought Infamous 2 will double the sales of the original. I simply gave you my opinion as to why I think it could. I'm sorry that my predictions aren't the same as yours. I have a Sony bias but if you think I'm extremely bias to the point where
I fall in the same category as a fanboy then your mistaken.



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jester2358 on 20 March 2011

LBP2---3.0 million 

killzone3---2.5 million

motostorm apocalypse ---1.3 million

SOCOM4--- 2.5 million

infamous 2---3.5 million

resistance 3---3 million

uncharted 3---6 million(and op there is no release date for mw3, and cods usually release around the 15th)

twisted metal---2.0 million

last guardian---1.0 million

ratchet all 4 one---1.5 million

 



SOLIDSNAKE08 on 22 March 2011

they will all sell well. theres probably only 1 that will sell above 6 million and that is of course UNCHARTED 3. the rest will hover around 3-4 million



9087 on 22 March 2011
jester2358 said:

uncharted 3---6 million(and op there is no release date for mw3, and cods usually release around the 15th)

 


BO came out on Nov 10

MW2 came out on Nov 9

 

 

Hence, MW3 could come out on Nov 11 this year.... exactly 1 week after Uncharted 3.

 

It will take away a lot of hype and sales from U3. If IW and Activision want that attractive 11.1.11 date for marketing purposes, it's going to get ugly for Uncharted 3.

Naughty Dog/Sony should've stuck with mid-October like they did with U2 to get the jump on the CoD and Assassin Creed games.