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Baalzamon said:

A lot of these theories seem possible, albeit extremely complicated, but I just don't think its as complicated as everybody is making it to be.

Hat guarded Final-Fan, but was roleblocked, so nothing happened with this.

Mafia killed Final-Fan

Some other role that works in the night killed Radish

I just think any other "evidence" that has been presented may just be an attempt by some to complicate the game, there doesn't seem to be definitive proof that there is in fact a busser.

My only question is, are all roles of somebody revealed when they die (if anybody does in fact have more than one role), or is it possible linkz decided to only reveal one role (given that somebody has more than one role), and the 2 dead could in fact be siblings, and the mafia decided to kill the siblings to institute a lot of confusion among us?  I'm thinking that all roles are revealed, but I'm not totally certain how all the rules work out yet.

Unless the mod is unusually cruel, he will reveal all role info when someone dies.



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@baal and notstan

I know it's hard for you to understand if you don't read the thread.

Hatmoza said specific things happened, and based on those things he was saying, it was impossible for it to fit together. Hatmoza was 100% sure that ff was bussed. And Outlaw was 100% sure that hat didn't do anything. Then hat came to the conclusion that if he himself didn't do anything, then he was also bussed.

If you don't know what you're talking about/ you don't read the thread, then don't bother commenting. I really really want to push for your lynch baal, so don't give me a reason to. I have a long list of your posts demonstrating cagey behavior, WIFOM, spreading confusion, cautiousness, and now I can add inatentiveness. In fact, my potals will be in the following post.



Wonktonodi said:

IIRC gnizmo, vet and baal didn't say much outside of the talk of cosplay roles matching up with scumy or not scummy roles. Something Linkz had explained in the sign up thread. So not much better than ABC or metal gear but they aren't pushing for lynching lurkers or anything like that yet. However I will watch to see they talk about something that isn't really a given.

Sorry about lack of responses, I had calc 3 homework that I didn't understand last night, then went to a movie, plus I continued getting more and more confused by prof's seemingly crazy, but possibly genius ideas of what is going on.

As for lynching, I defiantly don't think we are even close to ready for that step yet, as there is still tons of confusion on what is going on, although it is very suspicious that some people haven't hardly posted at all, especially darth, where he role claimed and then disappeared into happy land.



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

theprof00 said:

@baal and notstan

I know it's hard for you to understand if you don't read the thread.

Hatmoza said specific things happened, and based on those things he was saying, it was impossible for it to fit together. Hatmoza was 100% sure that ff was bussed. And Outlaw was 100% sure that hat didn't do anything. Then hat came to the conclusion that if he himself didn't do anything, then he was also bussed.

If you don't know what you're talking about/ you don't read the thread, then don't bother commenting. I really really want to push for your lynch baal, so don't give me a reason to. I have a long list of your posts demonstrating cagey behavior, WIFOM, spreading confusion, cautiousness, and now I can add inatentiveness. In fact, my potals will be in the following post.

Don't tell me I'm not reading the thread just because I see certain things as taking different paths than what you see.

hatmoza said he was supposedly a bodyguard, in which case, considering we have since realized it is possible he was role blocked without a PM, how can he be so certain that ff was bussed.  Also, if hatmoza was role blocked, then would it not make since that outlaw could say hatmoza didn't do anything, as he didn't because he was roleblocked.



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

Baalzamon said:
theprof00 said:

@baal and notstan

I know it's hard for you to understand if you don't read the thread.

Hatmoza said specific things happened, and based on those things he was saying, it was impossible for it to fit together. Hatmoza was 100% sure that ff was bussed. And Outlaw was 100% sure that hat didn't do anything. Then hat came to the conclusion that if he himself didn't do anything, then he was also bussed.

If you don't know what you're talking about/ you don't read the thread, then don't bother commenting. I really really want to push for your lynch baal, so don't give me a reason to. I have a long list of your posts demonstrating cagey behavior, WIFOM, spreading confusion, cautiousness, and now I can add inatentiveness. In fact, my potals will be in the following post.

Don't tell me I'm not reading the thread just because I see certain things as taking different paths than what you see.

hatmoza said he was supposedly a bodyguard, in which case, considering we have since realized it is possible he was role blocked without a PM, how can he be so certain that ff was bussed.  Also, if hatmoza was role blocked, then would it not make since that outlaw could say hatmoza didn't do anything, as he didn't because he was roleblocked.

He WAS certain of it BEFORE he realized he was blocked. He doesn't believe it anymore.



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TruckOSaurus said:
Baalzamon said:
theprof00 said:

@baal and notstan

I know it's hard for you to understand if you don't read the thread.

Hatmoza said specific things happened, and based on those things he was saying, it was impossible for it to fit together. Hatmoza was 100% sure that ff was bussed. And Outlaw was 100% sure that hat didn't do anything. Then hat came to the conclusion that if he himself didn't do anything, then he was also bussed.

If you don't know what you're talking about/ you don't read the thread, then don't bother commenting. I really really want to push for your lynch baal, so don't give me a reason to. I have a long list of your posts demonstrating cagey behavior, WIFOM, spreading confusion, cautiousness, and now I can add inatentiveness. In fact, my potals will be in the following post.

Don't tell me I'm not reading the thread just because I see certain things as taking different paths than what you see.

hatmoza said he was supposedly a bodyguard, in which case, considering we have since realized it is possible he was role blocked without a PM, how can he be so certain that ff was bussed.  Also, if hatmoza was role blocked, then would it not make since that outlaw could say hatmoza didn't do anything, as he didn't because he was roleblocked.

He WAS certain of it BEFORE he realized he was blocked. He doesn't believe it anymore.

yes, but prof still seems extremely adament that the bussing theory is true, and seems to have just completely ignored the latest consensus that he was actually role blocked, and I'm curious as to why this is.



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

theprof00 said:

spreading confusion

I think you have spread far more confusion than anybody else, and now with your most recent post, it is as if you completely disregard the idea that hatmoza could have been roleblocked, and instead attack me based on old information.

I really didn't want to do this, but since a bunch of other people already have, here goes:

I am Tyrande Whisperwind, TOWN VANILLA



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

Also, I'm going to class, so overinterpret however you guys feel necessary since I won't be posting for a few hours.



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

In order of appearance:

Part I: post totals. This section keeps track of how many posts a person makes, and in what category their posts fall into.

C stands for content. Content equals something that adds to the game, something that is on-topic and helps to solve a problem or question regarding analysis. Basically, if you look at a post and think, "this is a useful post", then it's content.

NC stands for non-content. It encompasses all the joke posts, posts that are simply votes, repetition of something previously said, off-topic questions, etc etc. Basically, if you look at a post and think, "waste of time", then it's probably non-content.

? stands for hard to tell. It could be useful, or trivial. At that point in the game, it's hard to tell. It could be a conversation between 2 or more people and you're not sure whether it's a healthy one. Or, it could simply be a post that seems awkward.

M stands for mistake. A mistake is when I know something, and you post something as an opinion that I know is the wrong conclusion. (and, no, I do not count posts against my townie alignment as mistakes. It's not like, well you're wrong so NYAH) But, for example, if you write, "It's simple, hatmoza got bussed, I don't see what the big deal is", then it's obvious you haven't been reading the thread, and that post is a mistake. For example, I'm going to take all those posts I made about what happened to Hat, and mark them as mistakes.

Slip stands for possible slips. If you come out and say something like, "it just sounded that way in my head because I'm in a mafia mindset", then that's a possible slip. I haven't seen any of these so far. But like last game, if you say that you've been mafia twice in the last two games, and you have only been mafia once, you probably just gave away that you're mafia now. These are good clues to look at people, but hardly good evidence.

DAY 1:

Name  (C/NC/?/M/Slip)

wonk 13-19-0-0-0
radish 3-11-1-4-0
MG 8-37-1-0-0
notstan 1-27-0-0-0
vette 5-1-1-1-0
dsis 11-20-0-2-0
hat 7-9-0-1-0
ABC 8-26-0-4-0
Baal 1-6-1-12-0
prof 6-4-0-0-0
ff 4-9-0-0-0
truck 10-7-0-0-0
Heph 10-16-0-3-0
Gnizmo 4-1-1-0-0
outlaw 0-0-0-0-0-0
darth 2-3-0-1-0 

Outlaw got a 0 because I don't count, "Hi, I'm here" posts as posts. That would be unfair.

Trophies:
MOST POSTS:
MetalGear: 46 posts
ABC: 38
Dsis: 33

MOST CONTENT:
wonk: 13
dsis: 11
truck&heph: 10 each

MOST NON-CONTENT:
MG: 37
Notstan: 27
ABC: 26

MOST MISTAKES:
Baal: 12
Radish&ABC: 4
Heph: 3

BEST RATIO:
Gnizmo: 66%
Vette: 62.5%
Theprof00: 60%
Truck: 58%
nothing else over 50%

WORST RATIO:
Notstan: 3.7%
Baal: 5%
MG: 17.4%
Radish: 18.75%
nothing else under 20% (ABC was the next closest at 21%)

 

Noted posts:

 

Defensive Stan (Notstan)
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3959011
"Yes I guess it has nothing to do with the fact that we both watch Annoying Orange on youtube."

<Wonk made a joke accusation, notstan got defensive, the wonk continued with the joke and notstan replied >

"Yesss me and ABC killed dsister on youtube .. And half his family too, and his cousin pear x)"

<Looks like Notstan is trying to include Radish in with the group>

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First game post: (Baal) 
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3959025

"Somebody appears to be getting very defensive.  My thoughts are telling me that this is intended as trickery so nobody can possibly see NotStan as a bad guy, when in fact, he must be, because he deals with dangerous knives and makes very compelling hints at other bad guys, who only a member of the mafia could possibly know. FoS: NotStan"

<This is the only post that I attribute to Baal as content on D1, and surprisingly, it's the first piece of content in the day>

Second game post: (dsis)

"Ok. Lets do this. Some questions need to be answered.
1. What is your opinion on a day 1 lynch?
2. Do you think it's ok under any circumstances for a townie to lie?
3. What's your opinion on lurkers?"

<Happens shortly after the first post.>

 

Trucks, First to notice Heph's "lie more as a townie than a mafia"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3959223

 

dsis' answers:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3959247
1. I think they are necessary. With a day 1 lynch you gain a lot of info going into day 2 and you also give a little support for night actions. As you might be a little suspicious of someone or something

2. Liars get in the way. If you catch a townie that is lying than you are going to spend a lot of time going over what they lied about and why. So with a combination of that and number one I can easily say Vote: Hephaestos

3. Hate 'em. on vgc it is easy to tell if someone is lurking or not though. If they are spamming other threads then they are obviously not wanting to post"

<Claims he is for day 1 lynches for the purpose of giving info going into day 2, and support for night actions. However, Heph wasn't really involved in much having only made 3 posts, 2 of them being jokes (1 of those being a vote for radish), and one being his answers to dsis' question. He makes no mention of his argument with the "lying as a townie", so it's hard to see how he could say he voted in order to get answers from a lynch, when there is really nothing to discover with Heph's lynch. Heph seconds my own sentiments.>

 

ABC's game structure
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3959332

"So, let's get something productive started, how many mafia do you guys think there would be in a game with this many players?"

<Happened shortly after dsis' questions. Could be an attempt to blend in>

 

Dsis confusion:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3959412

"*shrugs* That just falls short of the two lynch rule. Some mods just like to play outside the box I guess."

This post shows a genuine confusion. He notes that 3 falls just short of the 2 lynch rule, but then doesn't use ABC's account of the previous game to support the 2 lynch rule this game. This comes off to me as there actually being only 3, of which he is one. There might be an SK. He then continues after MG says, "it should be 4" by reaffirming the 20% rule; 3 mafia. He also then says, "Not to sound like I'm defending the guy but he thought it was a 30% rule. So that would put the mark right at 5 mafia members. That's also in between the two lynch rule and the 20% rule"

 

Dsis reaction to Heph:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3959915

<Basically, Heph questioned the motivation for dsis' vote, and Dsis replied that he would get information on Heph because "Pushing" a lynch on Heph would generate discussion. However, later on when I was bringing up the same point, dsis said that in no way did he push a lynch. So, if he did not push a lynch, then his defense against Heph's question was an empty shell, OR, if he did push a lynch, then he was lying to me>

 

ABC's info:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3960049

"I have some information that may single out a player, but until I believe more that they could be mafia I won't use it."

<pretty random post. very strange>

UPDATE: Radish was both unnerved by this post AND was eager to have it kept a secret by ABC. I need to go back and look at what Radish says when the info comes out, but IIRC, he said "that makes sen(s)e". This could point that both ABC and Dsis are town. More likely, ABC is confirmed town by this.

 

Heph's contradiction:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3960782
"Even faulty conclusions on evidence don't count as [a lie]."

yet

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3959663
"You lie all the time with your vote"

 

Gniz' post about his role
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3961715

"..how it goes in non-power games"

<What does this mean? Why would he start mentioning roles and power. Non-power games. How could he draw that conclusion? What implications is he making? Is he trying to say he has no power?Heph's response is "since i asked, i'll say that i have an interesting character too, though it's also true that WoW easily can gather 17 of these."

What? There's only 16 players.>

UPDATE: Hatmoza has claimed a character who is not in WoW. Whether this is mod error, or internet searched name, it is strange.

 

Radish out of the loop:
Radish comments on MG's "I got bored" post by saying, "maybe he's implying he won't be bored at night".

<This is possibly due to the fact that MG has a power. It seems to be coming out that a lot of players have a power, and it MIGHT only be a mafia who would think that a townie should be bored at night, not knowing that townies have powers.>

 

Day 2 

 

Radish flips scum- possibly killed by a bodyguard

FF flips town watcher- possibly killed by a serial killer

 

possible chainsaw defense (notstan):
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3959043

 

Tracking dsis answers:

MG:

"1. If someone has acted suspicious enough I have no problem lynching them day 1.
2. Townies should never lie!! I have come to realize that it will just cause unnecessary confusion.
3. Kill em, they are usually mafia."

<possibly either not a power role, or possibly a mafia based on "townies should never lie". It implies he has no reason to lie, which is not the first thing a person with a role would think>

Radish:

"1. I'm normally against it, but I'm not going to say that it's never an option
2. Doctors have to lie sometimes
3. Lurkers get 1 day after we realise that they're not posting, and then they must die"

<confirmed mafia>

Heph:

"1 logic tells me they are bad but game happening show they are almost mandatory... of course game history shows they are always wrongfull.
2 i do it more as a townie than a mafia
3 exhaustion"

<What's funny about this game, is that I realize how eerily similar Heph and I think. At first, I completely agreed with Heph, thinking that as a mafia I don't lie at all because I don't want to be caught in a lie, but then as town, I feel free to lie. Later on someone pointed out that mafia lie all the time by saying they think X is mafia. Neither Heph or I consider that a lie. EERIE>

Truck:
"1. No objections to them but they're not mandatory either.
2. It's ok under very rare circumstances (gambits are not one of those circumstances).
3. They slow the game down, they are often Mafia trying to lay down (like Metal_Gear twice in a row :P)"

Wonk:
"1. In some situations it's a good idea for numbers altough I've yet to see scum hit in a day one lynch. With the even number I'm more likely to be agaist it.
2. Yes but there aren't many circumstances like that.
3. Lurkers are often scum and if not then it's just a very unhelpful townie."

Notstan:
"1. I don't think it's too bad of an idea, but if the mafia approximations are accurate then there are high odds of hitting an innocent.
2. There are rare circumstances when it's OK I suppose, when the role allows.
3. They slow the game down. Alot."

<shortly after this post, he FoS darth for inactivity>

FF:
"1.  I used to be opposed to it unless something extraordinary happened.  Now I'm easier to sway to a lynch but I still start in the No Lynch camp.  
2.  ANY?  Yeah, there are certain very unusual cases.  But in general, NO WAY.  
3.  I think someone already put it best:  "Hate 'em."  They're a prime lynch target whenever we don't have great suspects, and a good nightkill target ALWAYS. " 

<In his next post, clarifies that ALWAYS means it's a good idea for either camp to take out lurkers. I agree>

Gniz:
1.Unless there is an insane amount of talking day 1 I am for a lynch. It generates discussion. 
2.The second one is an interesting question. Lying is flat out dumb in mafia for both sides. Every lie significantly cuts your potential lifespan. Deception is a different story though, and is the heart and soul of the game for both sides. Heph seems to consider deception lying which seems weird to me.
3.I am against them typically. Slowing the game down sucks regardless of the reason."

<ALSO, OMG GNIZ DIDN'T NUMBER HIS ANSWERS. I DID THAT. HE IS PURPOSEFULLY BEING OBSTRUSIVE!!!1>

Hatmoza:
1-  I always was pro lynching lurkers. However, my stubborn mind has come to the conclusion that lurkers can just as easily be pro-town players opposed to the scum I always leaned towards them being. So I don't think I'll push for first day 1 lynches like I used to. Nonetheless, the idea of scum striking first blood always boils my own.
2- Lynch all liars. So for fuck sake people. If you don't have a good ... GOOD reason for lying as pro-town, don't lie at all. Little white lies that you can prove were false for whatever reason can sometimes be negligible. However scum will use that to their advantage, that is why you're still at risk of getting lynch. <who is this last part directed at?>
3- I already mentioned lurkers but ... I just hope they're never pro-town. I've witnessed too many townies fall by the "lurking card" that it has left me quite paranoid."

More to come on q&a later:

 

Heph votes radish:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3959204

<day 1 tell: mafia vote for other mafia.>

UPDATE: Heph said he saw that post as an attempt to fit in. Honestly, it could go either way. He could also be a paranoid mafia, thinking everyone is going to notice that rad is trying to fit in, or he could've actually keenly recognized it.>



Baalzamon said:
TruckOSaurus said:
Baalzamon said:
theprof00 said:

@baal and notstan

I know it's hard for you to understand if you don't read the thread.

Hatmoza said specific things happened, and based on those things he was saying, it was impossible for it to fit together. Hatmoza was 100% sure that ff was bussed. And Outlaw was 100% sure that hat didn't do anything. Then hat came to the conclusion that if he himself didn't do anything, then he was also bussed.

If you don't know what you're talking about/ you don't read the thread, then don't bother commenting. I really really want to push for your lynch baal, so don't give me a reason to. I have a long list of your posts demonstrating cagey behavior, WIFOM, spreading confusion, cautiousness, and now I can add inatentiveness. In fact, my potals will be in the following post.

Don't tell me I'm not reading the thread just because I see certain things as taking different paths than what you see.

hatmoza said he was supposedly a bodyguard, in which case, considering we have since realized it is possible he was role blocked without a PM, how can he be so certain that ff was bussed.  Also, if hatmoza was role blocked, then would it not make since that outlaw could say hatmoza didn't do anything, as he didn't because he was roleblocked.

He WAS certain of it BEFORE he realized he was blocked. He doesn't believe it anymore.

yes, but prof still seems extremely adament that the bussing theory is true, and seems to have just completely ignored the latest consensus that he was actually role blocked, and I'm curious as to why this is.

I haven't, at any point after Hat said he was a guardian, held onto the busser theory. Hat didn't tell us he was a guardian until after he himself realized he was wrong. I had no idea what both outlaw or hat was. I was making conclusions based on the fact that Hatmoza was telling me he was right.

Hatmoza even berated me by saying, "I'm not going to roleclaim or give any more info. Someone of your calibur should be able to figure it out". But what he was saying was ONLY POSSIBLE IF (and I can't stress that word IF enough. I wrote it several times before my theory) my series of events was true. There was no other way for both him and outlaw to both be 100% accurate about what happened.

That is why I say you aren't reading the thread. Because it's like you skipped that whole part of the the discussion, and moved straight to where Hat role-claimed. After the claim, it was obvious he was simply roleblocked. But before that, he was spreading confusion by sharing innaccurate info, that lovable bastard.