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TheSource on 21 December 2007

You guys should about three weeks before going head first into any predictions...for two big reasons

1) I expect at least one of the big three to announce hardware shipments through December, with an updated shipment forecast.

2) The prospect of Wii catching Xbox 360 in the USA will largely be decided by sales in December, in which Wii outselling 360 by 500k would go along way toward Wii passing 360 in the summer, while Wii outselling 360 by 200k or less could keep it from surpassing 360 well into summer/fall, especially if GTAIV accompanies a 360 price cut.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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Astrodust on 21 December 2007
Bladeneo said:
Astrodust said:

My Predictions for 2008:

Total end of year sales Wii 53 million, PS3 19 million, 360 26 million
Wii fit will essenstially be sold out all year in NA.
The Wii Will not see a price drop.
The Wii will pass NA sales of the 360 by the end of May.
The Wii achieves 50% market share by the end of July.
Nintendo will not reduce production of the Wii.
Nintendo will increase the production of the Wii 2 more times. Around 2.4 and 2.8 million respectively.
The Wii will be sold out Christmas 2008 and the holdays will belong to Nintendo.Japan will see new Wii colors next Christmas.
The PS3 will receive 3 more price cuts and at least 2 more SKUs.
The 360 will see an HD-DVD drive built in. MGS4 will go multplatform.


 The PS3 will recieve THREE price cuts? You dont know how things work do you? 


Yes I think the PS3 will receive 3 price cuts next year. And I don't mean one for each SKU as that would be like 4 I think. I think 2 price cuts will come in the form of new SKUs and the other cut will come in the summer. Also the Wii will stay at sold out status in NA. So I would say get out there and do your Christmas shopping early if you want a Wii for Holidays 2008.



 

 

joora on 21 December 2007

End of 08:

Wii = 47m
PS3 = 20m
x360 = 23m


Reasons:
1. Release of WiiFit in America
2. Release of WiiFit in Europe
3. SSBB, Mariokart and rest major releases
4. Wii in China

These four reasons make nintendo raise production to 2,5-3m units per month after the end of fiscal year.

5. MGS4 boosts PS3 sales
6. GTA4 boosts both x360 and PS3 sales



.

dschumm on 21 December 2007
TheSource said:

You guys should about three weeks before going head first into any predictions...for two big reasons

1) I expect at least one of the big three to announce hardware shipments through December, with an updated shipment forecast.

2) The prospect of Wii catching Xbox 360 in the USA will largely be decided by sales in December, in which Wii outselling 360 by 500k would go along way toward Wii passing 360 in the summer, while Wii outselling 360 by 200k or less could keep it from surpassing 360 well into summer/fall, especially if GTAIV accompanies a 360 price cut.


 But then we would eliminate the possibility of being wrong before the year even begins. Where is the fun in that? Next you are saying that I probably should have researched sales history of various franchises and not pulled numbers out of my butt.



Final* Word on Game Delays:

The game will not be any better or include more content then planned. Any commnets that say so are just PR hogwash to make you feel better for having to wait.

Delays are due to lack of proper resources, skill, or adequate planning by the developer.

Do be thankful that they have enough respect for you to delay the game and maintain its intended level of quality.

*naznatips is exempt

dschumm on 21 December 2007
PDF said:
@dschumm - i think you predictions are very good except I would put off any real leaks about any new xb until 09 for an 2011 launch. Maby no more leak than knowing there will be future leaks lol.


 It all depends on how fast the 360 sucess deflates. Microsoft is savy they will be prepared for a 2010 launch even if they would prefer 2011. Software sales staying high are very important.



Final* Word on Game Delays:

The game will not be any better or include more content then planned. Any commnets that say so are just PR hogwash to make you feel better for having to wait.

Delays are due to lack of proper resources, skill, or adequate planning by the developer.

Do be thankful that they have enough respect for you to delay the game and maintain its intended level of quality.

*naznatips is exempt

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theshoe23 on 21 December 2007
Rugger08 said:
theshoe23 said:

1. Wii has shovelware exclusives, or at least exclusives I or many of my peers could care less about.

2. Wii is where the money is to make more money to make great 360 and PS3 games, that is how things are shaping up.

3. Actually poor 3rd party game sales show to me that Wii ONLY has the casual market, and Nintendo devotees.

4. My best friend, my two sisters, my mom, my dad, my sisters friends, etc. DON'T WANT A WII. Not EVERYONE wants one (I rephrase my statement to "many people are eyeballing it").

5. Price drops only go so far and cannot stop critical mass.

6. Again, and this is TRUTH, no one I know (and I know many) bought a PS3 for MGS4. I might consider buying it but MGS4 will sell systems to many who have been holding off purchasing it.

 


1. Quality of the 3rd party games will get much better as they realize that quality games on wii = great sales.

2. Right now wii is where the money is to offset the losses of developing all the PS3 games that have been in the works for the past 2 years that have shitty sales. (Lair, Hevenly Sword, Uncharted)

3. Time will show that wii can support hardcore cames if they are made for the system. Name one quality hardcore that has sold poorly on wii.

4. I bet you I can name a lot more people that aren't interested in PS3: mom, dad, brother, sister, girlfriend, grandma all of my closest friends.

5. DS has already won, now it doesn't even matter how much they sell.

 

By end of 2008:

Wii 48-50 million

Xbox 360 26 million

PS3 18 million

Mario Kart will outsell GTA4 on an single console.

SSBB and SMG will have lifetime sales higher than Halo.

KH3 will be announced for the wii.

Wii will pass 360 in NA by end of March.

  I find it extremely amusing that when Wii fans talk about the future it is real correct and flawless.  When PS3 fans talk about the future it is stupid, pointless, and a bad thing "I'll play my 360 or Wii games while you wait for MGS4 LOLOLOLOLZ" Your first 3 statements are no different than "When game X comes out for PS3 the domination will begin".  Someone needs to silence fanboys.

 



hongkongfuey^2 on 21 December 2007

@ dschumm

Good list but theres 3 problems:

1. Killzone will sell at least 2 million and it will be a GREAT game.

2. GT5 will be released in 2008.

3. Animal crossing will be delayed until 2011. J/k but it sounds like a crappy game.



Avinash_Tyagi on 21 December 2007
theshoe23 said:
Rugger08 said:
theshoe23 said:

1. Wii has shovelware exclusives, or at least exclusives I or many of my peers could care less about.

2. Wii is where the money is to make more money to make great 360 and PS3 games, that is how things are shaping up.

3. Actually poor 3rd party game sales show to me that Wii ONLY has the casual market, and Nintendo devotees.

4. My best friend, my two sisters, my mom, my dad, my sisters friends, etc. DON'T WANT A WII. Not EVERYONE wants one (I rephrase my statement to "many people are eyeballing it").

5. Price drops only go so far and cannot stop critical mass.

6. Again, and this is TRUTH, no one I know (and I know many) bought a PS3 for MGS4. I might consider buying it but MGS4 will sell systems to many who have been holding off purchasing it.

 


1. Quality of the 3rd party games will get much better as they realize that quality games on wii = great sales.

2. Right now wii is where the money is to offset the losses of developing all the PS3 games that have been in the works for the past 2 years that have shitty sales. (Lair, Hevenly Sword, Uncharted)

3. Time will show that wii can support hardcore cames if they are made for the system. Name one quality hardcore that has sold poorly on wii.

4. I bet you I can name a lot more people that aren't interested in PS3: mom, dad, brother, sister, girlfriend, grandma all of my closest friends.

5. DS has already won, now it doesn't even matter how much they sell.

 

By end of 2008:

Wii 48-50 million

Xbox 360 26 million

PS3 18 million

Mario Kart will outsell GTA4 on an single console.

SSBB and SMG will have lifetime sales higher than Halo.

KH3 will be announced for the wii.

Wii will pass 360 in NA by end of March.

  I find it extremely amusing that when Wii fans talk about the future it is real correct and flawless.  When PS3 fans talk about the future it is stupid, pointless, and a bad thing "I'll play my 360 or Wii games while you wait for MGS4 LOLOLOLOLZ" Your first 3 statements are no different than "When game X comes out for PS3 the domination will begin".  Someone needs to silence fanboys.

 


 Wii has proven its power, PS3 has not



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

dschumm on 21 December 2007
hongkongfuey^2 said:
@ dschumm

Good list but theres 3 problems:

1. Killzone will sell at least 2 million and it will be a GREAT game.

2. GT5 will be released in 2008.

3. Animal crossing will be delayed until 2011. J/k but it sounds like a crappy game.

 1. Who knows at this point. I just don't think it is as big a player as it is being made out to be.

2.  Hope so but my best bet is Japan 08, everyone else 09.

3. I find it hard to come to any conclusion being that Nintendo hasn't released any information other than they are working on it. Hell, they may have just said planning on working on it. No screens, no details, no hints. Some gaming mag hinted that it may go MMORPG, based on no evidence other than it would have online. So please show me your crappy details I would be very excited to paw over them. :)



Final* Word on Game Delays:

The game will not be any better or include more content then planned. Any commnets that say so are just PR hogwash to make you feel better for having to wait.

Delays are due to lack of proper resources, skill, or adequate planning by the developer.

Do be thankful that they have enough respect for you to delay the game and maintain its intended level of quality.

*naznatips is exempt

Alasted on 21 December 2007

My predictions for 2008:

1.  Jack Thompson will be disbarred.

2.  Wii Fit's appearance on Oprah will fail to generate the expected hype for the game, and willl sell an abysmal 6.5 billion units.

3.  Reginald Fils-Aime will announce a slightly disappointing 3:1 attach rate of asses kicked to names taken.

4.  leo-j will accuse 1,423 VG Chartz members of hating the PS3 by January 31, 2008.  PS3 hate allegations LTD: 3,112.

5.  John Lucas will transcend corporeal being and evolve into pure energy.

7.  Alasted will learn how to proofread his posts.  Maybe.

EDIT (FOR THE HUMOR IMPAIRED):