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thismeintiel said:
I would say ~100 with both 3DS and 3DSware games. Actually Nintendo thinks that it will sell ~ 4 mil by the end of March. Not sure if they will achieve this goal, but they have a shot. However, after the launches in all territories, sales will drop considerably, as is normal. Take Japan for instance, the 3DS debuted at ~371K for the first week and VGC says sales have most likely dropped to ~190K for the 2nd week. Given we are entering a slow time for sales, it is most likely going to drop even further. And even if the 3DS keeps pulling in 190K a week in Japan til the end of March, which I doubt it will, Nintendo will stilll fall short of its goal of 1.5 mil for Japan up until that time.
Of course, you said by the time the NGP releases. The NGP will be released, at least in Japan, before the huge sales push begins for the holidays. I'm guessing a release around Nov, early Dec at the latest. So there is no way Nintendo will have 15 mil 3DS sold by then. I think even after the holidays are over, and if the NGP isn't huge in Japan, the 3DS may have a good chance at selling 10 mil this year.
And the NGP is far from doomed. With new touchscreen/unique touchpad interface, coupled with its superior HW capabilitites, the NGP will have a better chance at competing with a Nintendo handheld than the PSP did. That is if Sony makes sure to price it at only a $50 difference.
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There'll be 100 retail 3DS games alone by the time the year's over, there's already over 100 announced for it actually. Maybe not in time for NGP's Japanese launch (which is undoubtedly going to be Dec 2nd), but by the end of 2011 is guaranteed, and honestly it'll probably be over 150 given how early in the year it is and the likely additional announcements at E3. I actually think we probably won't even see 3DSWare this year, given Nintendo's said basically nothing on it... we'll probably only get the Virtual Console and 3D Classics I think, with full 3DSWare in 2012.
Also, Japan's going to actually be getting a big sales boost soon out of golden week. The spring is really only uninterruptedly slow in the west, not Japan. 15m hardware units sold for 3DS worldwide by the end of 2011 is entirely doable though, and I think you're somewhat overestimating how low weekly sales are going to be... this isn't like any of the current systems, what you should be projecting against is stuff like DS in 2006 or Wii in 2007.
Anyway, for 3DS games which have been confirmed for 2011 release so far...
- Angler's Club: Ultimate Bass Fishing 3D (D3 Publisher / Tamsoft)
- Animal Crossing (Nintendo)
- Animal Resort (Marvelous Entertainment / AQ Interactive)
- A-Ressha de Ikou 3D (ArtDink)
- Asphalt 3D: Nitro Racing (Ubisoft / Gameloft)
- Bakugan: Rise of the Resistance (Activision)
- Balloon Pop 2 (UFO Interactive)
- Bikkuri! Tobidasu! Mahou no Pen (Global A Entertainment)
- Bikkuriman Kanjuku Haoh: Sanmi Douran Sensouki (Nippon Ichi Soft)
- Blazblue: Continuum Shift II (Arc System Works)
- Boku wa Kokuu Kanseikan: Narita (Sonic Powered)
- Bomberman 3DS (Hudson)
- Brunswick Pro Bowling (Crave Entertainment)
- Bust-A-Move Universe (Square Enix / Arika)
- Cartoon Network: Punch Time Explosion (Crave Entertainment / Papaya Studios)
- Cave Story 3D (Nippon Ichi Soft / Nicalis)
- Chocobo Racing 3D (Square Enix / h.a.n.d.)
- Combat of Giants: Dinosaurs 3D (Ubisoft / Ubisoft Quebec)
- Crush 3D (Sega / Zoe Mode)
- Cubic Ninja (AQ interactive)
- Daisenryaku for Nintendo 3DS (SystemSoft Alpha)
- Dead or Alive: Dimensions (Tecmo Koei / Team Ninja)
- Deca Sports Extreme (Hudson / CAProduction)
- DJ Hero 3D (Activision / Freestyle Games)
- Doctor Lautrec and the Forgotten Knights (Konami)
- Dream Trigger 3D (D3 Publisher / Art Co.)
- Driver Renegade (Ubisoft /Ubisoft Reflections)
- Dual Pen Sports (Namco Bandai / indieszero)
- Dynasty Warriors (Tecmo Koei / Omega Force)
- Earthpedia (Gakken Kyouiku Shuppan)
- EST (D3 Publisher)
- Face Kart: Photo Finish (Majesco Games / Renegade Kid)
- Fantasy Life (Level 5 / Brownie Brown)
- FIFA Soccer (EA Sports / EA Canada)
- Fish On! (ACSII Media Works / Sims Co.)
- Gabrielle's Ghostly Groove (Natsume / Santa Entertainment)
- Green Lantern: Rise of the Manhunters (Warner Bros. Interactive)
- Gundam: The 3D Battle (Namco Bandai / ArtDink)
- HanuOuki 3D (Idea Factory)
- Inazuma Eleven Go (Level 5)
- James Noir's Hollywood Crimes (Ubisoft / Ubisoft Montreal)
- Jewel Pet 3D (MTO)
- Karous 3D (Milestone)
- Kawaii Koinu 3D (MTO)
- Ken to Mahou to Gakuen Mono. 3D x 3D (Acquire)
- Kid Icarus: Uprising (Nintendo / Project Sora)
- Kororinpa (Hudson)
- Kuukan Ryoku Training (IE Institute)
- Kyaba Joppi for Nintendo 3DS (Level 5)
- LEGO Pirates of the Caribbean: The Videogame (Disney Interactive Studios / TT Games)
- LEGO Star Wars III: the Clone Wars (LucasArts / TT Games)
- Lovely Lisa 3D (Tomy)
- Madden NFL Football (EA Sports / EA North Carolina)
- Mario Kart (Nintendo)
- Metal Gear Solid: Snake Eater 3D (Konami / Kojima Productions)
- Motto Me de Unou o Kitaeru: Sokudoku Jutsu 3 (Milestone)
- Naruto Shippuden! Nin Rittai Emaki Saikyou Ninkai Kessen!! (Tomy)
- Nicoli's Pencil Puzzle (Hudson / Hamster)
- Nintendogs plus Cats (Nintendo)
- Omega Five (Hudson)
- One Piece Unlimited Cruise SP (Namco Bandai / Ganbarion)
- Pac-Man & Galaga Dimensions (Namco Bandai / Namco)
- Pet Zombies in 3D (Majesco Games / 1st Playable Productions)
- Pichi Lemon Idol Debut (Culture Brain)
- Pilotwings Resort (Nintendo)
- Pinball Hall of Fame: The Williams Collection (Crave Entertainment / FarSight Studios)
- Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 3D (Konami / Winning Eleven Productions)
- Pro Yakyuu Famista 2011 (Namco Bandai / NOW Production)
- Professional Baseball Spirits 2011 (Konami / Powapuro Productions)
- Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask (Level 5)
- Project Love Plus (Konami / Love Plus Productions)
- Rabbids Travel in Time 3D (Ubisoft / Ubsioft Casablanca)
- Rayman 3D (Ubisoft / Ubisoft Montpellier)
- Reel Fishing Paradise 3D (Natsume / Marvelous Entertainment)
- Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D (Capcom)
- Ridge Racer 3D (Namco Bandai / Namco)
- Rodea the Sky Soldier (Kadowkawa Games / Prope)
- Runabout for Nintendo 3DS (Rocket Company / Climax Entertainment)
- Saints Row: Drive-By (THQ / Volition Studio)
- Samurai Warriors: Chronicles (Tecmo Koei / Omega Force)
- Shanghai 3D Cube (Sunsoft)
- Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked (Atlus)
- Shinigamioni (Digital Works Entertainment)
- SpongeBob SquigglePants (THQ)
- Star Fox 64 3D (Nintendo)
- Steel Diver (Nintendo)
- Super Black Bass 3D: Fishing Soul (Star*fish SD)
- Super Monkey Ball 3D (Sega)
- Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition (Capcom / DIMPs)
- Tales of the Abyss (Namco Bandai / Namco Tales Studio)
- Tank Beat 3D (Milestone)
- Tetris Axis (Hudson)
- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo)
- The Sims 3 (EA Games / The Sims Studio)
- The Smurfs (Ubisoft)
- Thor: God of Thunder (Sega / Red Fly Studios)
- Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Shadow Wars (Ubisoft / Ubisoft Sofia)
- Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell 3D (Ubisoft / Ubisoft Montreal / Gameloft)
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon Autobots / Decepticons (Activision)
- UnchainBlades ReXX (FuuRyu)
- Virus Shooter XX (Dorart)
- ZAOO (Digital Works Entertainment)
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