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Forums - Sales - Who will be on top JAPAN LTD: PS3 or Wii?

 

Who will be on top JAPAN LTD: PS3 or Wii?

easily beat it and open up a gap at top 35 21.08%
 
will reach it but won't get much ahead 27 16.27%
 
will equal it 13 7.83%
 
neverrrrrrrrrrrrr 90 54.22%
 
Total:165
postofficebuddy on 01 March 2011
jarrod said:

I said essentially doubling.  Doubling it's current userbase would actually be 12,610,174, not 13 million. If you're going to get nitpicky, then actually get this stuff right.

PS3 is going to sell less this year than last year, and probably much less the following year.  It's holiday last year wasn't great, but it's not like it lacked for content (hello GT5).  If the console passes even 10 million, Sony should consider themselves lucky.   

I think FFXIII-2 and Versus will do okay, probably around 1.5m-ish each, but neither is a game that can really push new hardware to any sustainable degree.  To compare them to MHP3 is laughable.  The only upcoming game even nearing the same league on any home console is DQX, and I can't see it having anywhere close to the same sort of hardware effect.  And DQX is a game that will likely outsell XIII-2 and Versus combined.


I didn't check the exact sales, I was going off of the 6.4 million in the OP. I assumed it was 12.8-12.9. 

And as I already mentioned why aren't we already signs of slowdown? And you didn't even address the price cut. And obviously MH3P isn't the only example of that, it's just the most prominent. If you want a more down-to-earth example Yakuza Kenzan and Yakuza 3. I feel supremely confident that PS3 will sell more this year than last. I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree. And in regards to DQX, If it doesn't come out this year I'm beggining to think it won't even outsell FFXIII.



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jarrod on 03 March 2011
postofficebuddy said:
jarrod said:

I said essentially doubling.  Doubling it's current userbase would actually be 12,610,174, not 13 million. If you're going to get nitpicky, then actually get this stuff right.

PS3 is going to sell less this year than last year, and probably much less the following year.  It's holiday last year wasn't great, but it's not like it lacked for content (hello GT5).  If the console passes even 10 million, Sony should consider themselves lucky.   

I think FFXIII-2 and Versus will do okay, probably around 1.5m-ish each, but neither is a game that can really push new hardware to any sustainable degree.  To compare them to MHP3 is laughable.  The only upcoming game even nearing the same league on any home console is DQX, and I can't see it having anywhere close to the same sort of hardware effect.  And DQX is a game that will likely outsell XIII-2 and Versus combined.


I didn't check the exact sales, I was going off of the 6.4 million in the OP. I assumed it was 12.8-12.9. 

And as I already mentioned why aren't we already signs of slowdown? And you didn't even address the price cut. And obviously MH3P isn't the only example of that, it's just the most prominent. If you want a more down-to-earth example Yakuza Kenzan and Yakuza 3. I feel supremely confident that PS3 will sell more this year than last. I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree. And in regards to DQX, If it doesn't come out this year I'm beggining to think it won't even outsell FFXIII.

We have seen slowdown, PS3 is down yoy for 2011.  Not the extreme (~50%) drop Wii has seen, but down none the less.

For your Yakuza comparison to work, Kenzan would need to come after Y3.  It'd be like if FFXIII were following XIII-2 and Versus, rather than the reverse.

And I wouldn't really worry about your last sentence, there's 0% chance of that happening.  DQX could be a 360 game, and it'd still probably pass 2 million. The only mainline DQ to ever sell less than FFXIII was the original Famicom game back in 1986.



postofficebuddy on 03 March 2011
jarrod said:

We have seen slowdown, PS3 is down yoy for 2011.  Not the extreme (~50%) drop Wii has seen, but down none the less.

For your Yakuza comparison to work, Kenzan would need to come after Y3.  It'd be like if FFXIII were following XIII-2 and Versus, rather than the reverse.

And I wouldn't really worry about your last sentence, there's 0% chance of that happening.  DQX could be a 360 game, and it'd still probably pass 2 million. The only mainline DQ to ever sell less than FFXIII was the original Famicom game back in 1986.


You misinterpreted the Yakuza comment. I meant Yakuza 3 pushed hardware despite Kenzan releasing before it. PS3 is down a measely 30k YOY. That will likely be erased, or close to it, next week with the Torne bundle price cut. Plus that and the silver model will counter the Hokuto and Torne boosts from last year. Like I said, we'll just have to agree to disagree. And I suppose we'll just have to wait and see in regards to DQX.



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gum on 03 March 2011

There is no reason to wait : DQX is the main entry of a 4mns franchise while XIII-2 and versus XIII are just spin ofs of a 2mns franchise. The PS3 has already a main FF game while the Wii hasn't a main DQ game. The PS3 has already many RPGs fans as these games sell well on the system while the Wii hasn't . These are all arguments, proofs and facts what are yours? Do you have any at all?

You can wait if you want to see if the main entry of a 4Mns franchise is going to sell more than the main entry of a 2mns franchise if you want and you could also wait to see if the next Conduit is going to outsell the next COD if you want but you will be probably alone as every one else knows that the answer is obvious.



postofficebuddy on 03 March 2011
gum said:

There is no reason to wait : DQX is the main entry of a 4mns franchise while XIII-2 and versus XIII are just spin ofs of a 2mns franchise. The PS3 has already a main FF game while the Wii hasn't a main DQ game. The PS3 has already many RPGs fans as these games sell well on the system while the Wii hasn't . These are all arguments, proofs and facts what are yours? Do you have any at all?

You can wait if you want to see if the main entry of a 4Mns franchise is going to sell more than the main entry of a 2mns franchise if you want and you could also wait to see if the next Conduit is going to outsell the next COD if you want but you will be probably alone as every one else knows that the answer is obvious.


I didn't say DQX wouldn't sell 2 million, I said it wouldn't sell that much if it didn't release this year. Has a mainline DQ game ever released on an effectively dead console? Because that's the state the Wii will likely be in next year, probably selling at a 360-like level. And besides that it's clear the DQ fanbase isn't as active on the Wii as it used to be, you only need to compare Battle Road Victory with Swords to see that. Not to mention the fact that this wouldn't even be the first time something like that has happened. Look at Monster Hunter, a series that has effectively eclipsed DQ. It barely cracked a million on Wii.



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gum on 03 March 2011
postofficebuddy said:
gum said:

There is no reason to wait : DQX is the main entry of a 4mns franchise while XIII-2 and versus XIII are just spin ofs of a 2mns franchise. The PS3 has already a main FF game while the Wii hasn't a main DQ game. The PS3 has already many RPGs fans as these games sell well on the system while the Wii hasn't . These are all arguments, proofs and facts what are yours? Do you have any at all?

You can wait if you want to see if the main entry of a 4Mns franchise is going to sell more than the main entry of a 2mns franchise if you want and you could also wait to see if the next Conduit is going to outsell the next COD if you want but you will be probably alone as every one else knows that the answer is obvious.


I didn't say DQX wouldn't sell 2 million, I said it wouldn't sell that much if it didn't release this year. Has a mainline DQ game ever released on an effectively dead console? Because that's the state the Wii will likely be in next year, probably selling at a 360-like level. And besides that it's clear the DQ fanbase isn't as active on the Wii as it used to be, you only need to compare Battle Road Victory with Swords to see that.

The thing is that it's not a sure fact at all that the Wii will be dead or even selling much less than the PS3 next year. This certainly has still to be proven. What is sure though is that it still will have a much bigger installed base than its competitors so even if it's selling "at 360-like level" (do you seriously expect that btw?) it will still have this huge userbase that is better insurance to sell well than a much smaller one especially for a 4mns franchise. DQ is going to attract many HCG but it is also a serie that sells well among casual gamers probably like the ones that buy 2D Mario games for exemple. So basically I don't see a reason why it shouldn't sell as much as the previous entries in the serie and I don't think you give a compelling reason for that to happen.



jarrod on 04 March 2011
postofficebuddy said:

I didn't say DQX wouldn't sell 2 million, I said it wouldn't sell that much if it didn't release this year. Has a mainline DQ game ever released on an effectively dead console? Because that's the state the Wii will likely be in next year, probably selling at a 360-like level. And besides that it's clear the DQ fanbase isn't as active on the Wii as it used to be, you only need to compare Battle Road Victory with Swords to see that. Not to mention the fact that this wouldn't even be the first time something like that has happened. Look at Monster Hunter, a series that has effectively eclipsed DQ. It barely cracked a million on Wii.

DQVII released after PS2 did, it's not like DQ hasn't launched late term on a system (and after that system's successor is already on shelves) before.  DQX could instead launch in 2014 on Xbox 360, and it would still outsell FFXIII.  There's pretty much no scenario where DQX doesn't sell more than FFXIII... and given it's likely release situation (late 2011 on Wii) it's going to likely sell about twice what FFXIII did. 

DQ Swords versus DQM Battle Road Victory isn't the best comparison either, given the former was fairly high profile, had original Toriyama designs, voice acting (a first for the series in Japan) and was an actual RPG.  Looking back though, BRV still managed to be the best selling console Monsters title in the series, beating out the PS1 entry (which also substantially undersold Torneko 2 on PS1, by an even greater degree).

As for your Monster Hunter remark, the series didn't eclipse DQ until over a year after Tri released.  And considering it had subscription based multiplayer, Tri's actually the best selling game of it's kind in history in Japan (better than *anything* on PC, 360, PS2, DS, etc).  "Barely a million" looks pretty fantastic when put up against PSO/U, FFXI, Nobunga Online, or any other subscription based game in Japan.  Hell, it even looks great compared to MH1-2 or MHFO.  I wonder how well the PSP entries would sell if you had to pay $15 a month to play with anyone else?