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jarrod on 03 March 2011
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postofficebuddy said:
jarrod said:

I said essentially doubling.  Doubling it's current userbase would actually be 12,610,174, not 13 million. If you're going to get nitpicky, then actually get this stuff right.

PS3 is going to sell less this year than last year, and probably much less the following year.  It's holiday last year wasn't great, but it's not like it lacked for content (hello GT5).  If the console passes even 10 million, Sony should consider themselves lucky.   

I think FFXIII-2 and Versus will do okay, probably around 1.5m-ish each, but neither is a game that can really push new hardware to any sustainable degree.  To compare them to MHP3 is laughable.  The only upcoming game even nearing the same league on any home console is DQX, and I can't see it having anywhere close to the same sort of hardware effect.  And DQX is a game that will likely outsell XIII-2 and Versus combined.


I didn't check the exact sales, I was going off of the 6.4 million in the OP. I assumed it was 12.8-12.9. 

And as I already mentioned why aren't we already signs of slowdown? And you didn't even address the price cut. And obviously MH3P isn't the only example of that, it's just the most prominent. If you want a more down-to-earth example Yakuza Kenzan and Yakuza 3. I feel supremely confident that PS3 will sell more this year than last. I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree. And in regards to DQX, If it doesn't come out this year I'm beggining to think it won't even outsell FFXIII.

We have seen slowdown, PS3 is down yoy for 2011.  Not the extreme (~50%) drop Wii has seen, but down none the less.

For your Yakuza comparison to work, Kenzan would need to come after Y3.  It'd be like if FFXIII were following XIII-2 and Versus, rather than the reverse.

And I wouldn't really worry about your last sentence, there's 0% chance of that happening.  DQX could be a 360 game, and it'd still probably pass 2 million. The only mainline DQ to ever sell less than FFXIII was the original Famicom game back in 1986.