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Linkzmax said:

1&6) Yes, I understand it's possible there wouldn't have been a cop this round. But once ABC flipped scum, it would've meant both trash and I had to be lying, and then if there were 4 scum, we'd have won day two when FF/you voted prof or when Heph voted you. I can understand a game being setup badly with too many mafia, but are you saying that mafia once missed a win opportunity?

2&3) Yes it was a gamble on my part. I was hopeful that it would've been bought, because logically I could've taken out the cop before being scanned. You weren't the only one, Heph also jumped against it. prof and trash didn't mind it too much, and radish seemed indifferent.

4) I see your point, but pressing for the information day one could be a huge hindrance. But, I would've definitely pushed for the explanation on day two in ABC's case. Him not dying after that scene should've gotten him lynched or at least pressured for the claim. I didn't understand why that wasn't pointed out, but I wasn't about to draw attention to it either.

5) Yes, but by keeping her alive it was meant to send a message that the final scum(which I'd argue wasn't me) wasn't worried about being scanned. Killing trash would've seen me lynched for sure today or tomorrow anyway.

1/6) I re-read your original points, and I admit that I started talking past you.  I agree with most of your reasoning, but those were the exact reasons why I trusted trash, i.e. they were very solid reasons for believing that neither she nor prof was scum, and thus the field narrowed down to two.  And once we reached that, the endgame became clear.  Elimination's a very strong arguement: radish bought in so quickly precisely because it's relatively irrefutable.

Basically, we seem to be in agreement about trash being confirmed: I just laid out my work in the quoted post to help speed things along.

5)  I don't think that's a particularly strong message, though.  You'd essentially be pushing for a Godfather AND a Miller in a game that's already over the Golden Ratio.  That's even less plausible than the Miller And Three Scum, which itself was hard to swallow.  It goes back to what I said; mafia setups can get crazy, but there's a certain predictability to them when the mod knows how the game works, as Truck does.  This goes double for vanillla games, which we have here.  In essence, the Miller claim not only confirmed trash's story, but it didn't fit with the setup. 

As an aside, though, if you had killed trash you still might have won.  There'd only be one confirmed townie then, and while it would have been tough to misdirect us twice, it would have still been possible.  We're a paranoid bunch, you see.



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Apologies to Republic, but I really didn't want prof to die night one. Same goes for Heph. If it was only up to me, radish would've gone, because I think a round conversing with others that are confirmed might do a lot of good.



noname2200 said:

As an aside, though, if you had killed trash you still might have won.  There'd only be one confirmed townie then, and while it would have been tough to misdirect us twice, it would have still been possible.  We're a paranoid bunch, you see.

Nah, only chance would've been if I could get you or Heph lynched day four. Kill prof overnight, and then possibly maybe convince radish. But odds were just as slim as leaving trash alive and guessing her scan right.

I might've had a chance without the miller claim, but with both my scummates on a thin thread why not hop on board?



Ok, so I'm just going to explain how my gambit was supposed to work.

I promise I will never do one again.

Basically, the whole thing was a red herring with one goal in mind. Have people place themselves into groups.

The premise revolved around seeing or noticing the clue, and being told that people who didn't notice were suspicious.

Having had some help, I saw it, but noticed that not many others had.

The first three people (ABC, Heph, Radish) were the condition. None of the three had noticed. I put FF as noticed, knew based on his reactions but later would ask him to confirm.

The next person to place themselves was trashleg, noticing and knowing.

Linkz was next, noticing but not sure.

That created a chart like this:

Linkz

Heph
ABC
Radish

FF
Prof
Trashleg

So at this point, three are three categories. 
Not noticing-1
Unsure-3
Knowing-2 plus one tentative

Noname was last to confirm that he noticed, and was clarified to didn't notice, didn't know. 

At this point, Linkz asked to be moved to "didn't notice, didn't know"

Stefl never showed up.

So that was my data.

So, my reasoning began with the idea that initially, there were 3 suspicious characters and 1 not-suspicious (from my POV, and mafia knowing that I'm town can share that perspective).

At that point, there were two options. Place yourself in the suspicious category, or not suspicious category. However, the foundation lies within those three initial players.

  • If, as a mafia, you place yourself in the suspicious category and everyone else says they noticed, then you've just created a small pool of players who are suspicious, and accidentally given credit to the evidence.

For example, there are three players in suspicious, you also claim suspicious. That's one mafia in a theoretical group of 4. Not bad odds for a mafia to have.

  • If, as mafia, you place yourself in the not suspicious category, and the opposite of above happens, you've done the same.
Now, if everyone after you joins your side, you blend in better. So the best thing to do is to join the side with the most people in it, and blend in.
Conversely, if one of the first three people is mafia, and you join that group, and everyone else afterwards joins the other group. You've then created a group of 50% mafia (2 out of 4). As a mafia, you can't risk that happening, so the only thing you can do, is enter the other group and separate yourselves. Mafia HATE to be grouped with each other. It is a dreadful, loathsome thing that signals impending doom.
Because of the data I had with three groups, it pointed to one of the first three being mafia, otherwise, the best bet is to simply join the suspicious group. This makes it a fairly strong piece of evidence 1 mafia in "know" 1 mafia in the first three, and one mafia in the "unsure".
However, and this seems to happen every game, I'm capable of finding a good 50% mafia, but the other 50% has a town power role in there. Happens every time, and I biased myself by thinking there wouldn't be one. 
Trash also didn't help her situation by using some really baseless evidence to push forward a lynch. In the back of my mind I thought, the only way she isn't a mafia, is if she's a cop. But because of Heph saying things like, "stefl and trash are at the bottom of my list", and vice versa for the others, I couldn't brook that possibility.
At that point in time, my decision was trash from group 1, Heph from the first 3, and either linkzor noname (both asked to switch groups) from group 3 and stefl as an outside possibility.
I see now that the major problem with gambits is the interpretation of the evidence that flaws the conclusion. So, this is why I will not do gambits again, and I sincerely apologize for taking up so much of all your time.

GG to everyone.

Linkz your only mistake was claiming miller. Millers get lynched no matter what at some point.



theprof00 said:
I see now that the major problem with gambits is the interpretation of the evidence that flaws the conclusion. So, this is why I will not do gambits again, and I sincerely apologize for taking up so much of all your time.

It's all good, and lesson learned.  For my part, sorry about throwing what amounted to a hissy fit about it.



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So prof how in the world did you think I was cop?



19:44:34 Skeezer METAL GEAR ONLINE
19:44:36 Skeezer FAILURE
19:44:51 ABadClown You're right!
19:44:55 ABadClown Hur hur hur
19:45:01 Skeezer i meant
19:45:04 Skeezer YOU ARE A FAILKURE
19:45:08 Skeezer FAILURE*
Wonktonodi said:

dead thread

http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/YSymDuNv8GKhj

great read. I want in the next game, but I wouldn't mind much if I'm killed(one way or another) early and got to play more videogames too. I spent more time reading through the thread as scum than I did when I was a townie. Also, I hated being scum this round.



A Bad Clown said:

Any objections to us releasing the mafia quicktopic?

I'm sure Stefl won't mind as he barely said anything.



haha sweet dead thread.

@republic and wonk

I was seriously played by linkz. He manipulated my evidence and thought process all too well. He's a smooth criminal.



Linkzmax said:
A Bad Clown said:

Any objections to us releasing the mafia quicktopic?

I'm sure Stefl won't mind as he barely said anything.

I guess not



19:44:34 Skeezer METAL GEAR ONLINE
19:44:36 Skeezer FAILURE
19:44:51 ABadClown You're right!
19:44:55 ABadClown Hur hur hur
19:45:01 Skeezer i meant
19:45:04 Skeezer YOU ARE A FAILKURE
19:45:08 Skeezer FAILURE*