On second thought, the specific player isn't guaranteed. But one stands out more than the others in my eyes.

Am I missing something? xD Who is confirmed?

op's vote of proff should be on wonk and not me... besides this it's accurate I believe

rereading your train post, I just get the feeling that something is of.

Firstly as pointed out by Wonk, he had 2 votes and I had 3... i'll put this as an honest mistake...

However here is the following that strikes me as odd...

1) You say that many dismiss ABC for being just confused when he actually has experience and should be takent more seriously.

2) you say wonk has been acting unusual but you give credit to his radish theory.

3) you point out that Radish isn't up to what he promissed and raise the oddity that he has been defending wonk.

4) You come back to ABC and say he is the best lynch... so the person you'd vote for.

5) you comment that it'll be dificult to get 6 votes on him....when he currently had 3, which means with your vote, you needed just 2 more... or at least with your vote he was in the lead for the day.

The last vote total was:

[3, L-3] A Bad Clown: (noname2200); (Final-Fan); trashleg; radishhead; theRepublic

[1, L-5] Wonktonodi: Hephaestos

[2, L-4] Hephaestos: Wonktonodi; (Linkzmax); A Bad Clown

with linkz voting wonk and proff voting me before your post... so 3-2-3

Now here is what I don't get. Your post seems to be putting a larger case on Radish than Wonk as he's the one doing the connection, it puts a larger case on me "incredibly odd" rather than "unusual" for wonk and also it points at trash in a way that could blame me and finally your post starts and finishes by saying that ABC is your prime suspect ("best lynch candidate").... Considering the votes (and not counting the votes not registered is even more in this way), ABC would have been the best candidate for a successfull lynch train.

A) ABC needed only 2 votes above yours.

B) FF was swayed easily by your points..... even though you just resumed the situation in a way that didn't particularly point at wonk. But his previous suspicions could have let him vote either way (1 more vote needed)

C) who else would have voted ABC? Not proff, not Linkz, not wonk and definitely not I. What you had left was stefl... someone evidently lacking back.

My point is that your push on wonk was made on the sole reason that you thought it was the most likely lynch to succeed, not that he was the most lynchable to your eyes.

My final point is an hypothesis:

Knowing both wonk and I were townies, your view of the game is skewed and you saw Wonk's missbehavior as much more probant, you point out to my overreaction to a pair of votes as my sin, when this is highly incorect. (I didn't over react to votes, I over reacted to proff before he voted me, and overreacted to linkz findings as they were based on a missconception on his part, nowhere was this related to the votes). Wonk on the other hand had a case built on him on a change of attitude independent of any accusations and you saw this as much more solid.

This belief in mind, you considered who would vote more easily... I depicted up there why ABC was pretty safe to stay at L-1... but considering you minssinterpreted the votes, it is easy to see you making calculations on either of Wonk or I... Who's gonna vote

Heph: Wonk, Noname, ABC, proff, Radish, maybe FF.. so maybe 6, Trashleg being too focused on distancing herself to vote and stefl lagging behind, and republic not having touched the matter while having his vote on ABC, Linkz had his vote on Wonk.

Wonk: Heph, Linkz, Noname, ABC, Radish, maybe FF... so maybe 6, but trashleg could bandwagon without much implication. the rest same as above, swithing linkz for proff with a vote on me.

I see the 2 lynch trains as almost equaly possible to succeed, with the wonk one having more chance due to trashleg being more distant of the even and thus more likely to follow...

Now if we consider other mafiosis.... if proff is one of them, then the lynch train on wonk was a guarantee...

(oh yeah I have radish voting wonk there... but that is his style, he does follow the trains when they appear even if only barely convinced).

Now to come back to your view of the game, with 2 equal lynch trains... taking the one with the easiest case to support (the one where your mafia view sees more arguments) is definitely the strategy I can see you pull off. All the while, as proff says, being too exposed to be mafia... as if hidding in plain sight wasn't effective.

Answer what you will.

definitely not you

pointing them out is unwise with a dead doc.... or at least before they are at risk.

to further my hypothesis,  noname pushed the train on to ABC, FF, Trash and proff, the first 3 being easy sways as not implicated with wonk, the last making a point that he didn't trust you...

now if that was only online people, sure... it means proff took 1 hour to answer... theatrically.

noname2200 on 02/18/11 04:47 GMT 1

theprof00 on 02/18/11 05:52 GMT 1

Interesting Heph, I find that to be almost too believable. But how do you explain the whole "illiterate/lazy" thing?
Easy reading:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3920420
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3920459
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3920477
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3920482
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3920534
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3920607

At first, I think it would lead credence to the two of them being scummates, but then I'd have to wonder why they didn't kill off ABC at night. Unless they're thinking he could be set up for a lynch, but then prof was adamant early about not revisiting ABC today.

Also, seeing that the OP was updated scratch my thought of there being a confirmed townie. I wasn't going to out him or her with the doc being dead, but I'm not certain scum would've killed them anyway because they could just as easily have been a liability to town. Anyway, it's moot.

anyone else notice this complaining?

that whole illiterate/lazy part is really dependent on the pivotal role: prof. If prof is scum, then it is likely ABC is too... the same could be said if ABC is scum considering proff's partial defence of him. If they are both scum, then noname is evidently setting up a defence of ABC here. Though if ABC is not scum, it could still be the other 2 setting him up for a fail... inducing a fake claim from him to save himself.

This is still conditional though. If prof is a townie and he read ABC as convincingly town, then his whole reaction here is just normal. I'd be hypocrite to not consider this when it is something I myself claim to do.

One thing of notice though is that Noname still refered to ABC as his best lynch target at the end of the day...when this discution would have pointed at him being cleared in his mind and in proff's for day one at least.

Proff has talked a lot, I believe there is little to gain from discution on his case today.

Noname has been active, but mostly distant from the action (besides the lazy and the train events), I believe there is much more to learn from him today than from proff (and I incidently also believe that the train is more on his hands than on proff's).