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Forums - Nintendo - The Last Story--Its performance and its future

LordTheNightKnight on 10 February 2011
jacks81x said:
JTurner82 said:

However, there is an argument that I can make in TLS' favor.  Mistwaker's previous console RPGs, Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey both had second weeks around the 10k range, totalling in at about 18k and 12k, respectively.  Drastic as TLS' second week sales are, they're still a bit higher than that, so with any luck it still may go on to be Mistwaker's best selling IP in Japan.  Of course, that is assuming if it can provide enough staying power, but given how new IPs perform in Japan these days, particularly new ones for the Wii, it is an iffy prospect at best.  (OTOH, it IS ahead of Xenoblade's second week by far--while that title didn't drop so drastically, it only made about 105k for its LTD.  TLS is above that.)

 

That's not a very good argument when you look at the user base of the two systems.  The Wii user base is almost 10 times that of the 360.  So that fact that TLS is only selling slight better than LO and Blue Dragon in absolutely numbers means the attach rate of TLS horrible compared to that of LO and Blue Dragon.  


Userbase does NOT mean ALL sales are equivalent. Userbase only oncreases potential customers, not actual customers.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

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jonager on 10 February 2011
LordTheNightKnight said:
jacks81x said:
JTurner82 said:

However, there is an argument that I can make in TLS' favor.  Mistwaker's previous console RPGs, Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey both had second weeks around the 10k range, totalling in at about 18k and 12k, respectively.  Drastic as TLS' second week sales are, they're still a bit higher than that, so with any luck it still may go on to be Mistwaker's best selling IP in Japan.  Of course, that is assuming if it can provide enough staying power, but given how new IPs perform in Japan these days, particularly new ones for the Wii, it is an iffy prospect at best.  (OTOH, it IS ahead of Xenoblade's second week by far--while that title didn't drop so drastically, it only made about 105k for its LTD.  TLS is above that.)

 

That's not a very good argument when you look at the user base of the two systems.  The Wii user base is almost 10 times that of the 360.  So that fact that TLS is only selling slight better than LO and Blue Dragon in absolutely numbers means the attach rate of TLS horrible compared to that of LO and Blue Dragon.  


Userbase does NOT mean ALL sales are equivalent. Userbase only oncreases potential customers, not actual customers.


yh but with wii's huge userbase when compare with 360. you would expect TLS to do better



LordTheNightKnight on 10 February 2011
jonager said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
jacks81x said:
JTurner82 said:

However, there is an argument that I can make in TLS' favor.  Mistwaker's previous console RPGs, Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey both had second weeks around the 10k range, totalling in at about 18k and 12k, respectively.  Drastic as TLS' second week sales are, they're still a bit higher than that, so with any luck it still may go on to be Mistwaker's best selling IP in Japan.  Of course, that is assuming if it can provide enough staying power, but given how new IPs perform in Japan these days, particularly new ones for the Wii, it is an iffy prospect at best.  (OTOH, it IS ahead of Xenoblade's second week by far--while that title didn't drop so drastically, it only made about 105k for its LTD.  TLS is above that.)

 

That's not a very good argument when you look at the user base of the two systems.  The Wii user base is almost 10 times that of the 360.  So that fact that TLS is only selling slight better than LO and Blue Dragon in absolutely numbers means the attach rate of TLS horrible compared to that of LO and Blue Dragon.  


Userbase does NOT mean ALL sales are equivalent. Userbase only oncreases potential customers, not actual customers.


yh but with wii's huge userbase when compare with 360. you would expect TLS to do better


Expecting does not make something happen. Factors make something happen. If a game only has so much appeal no matter the system (in this case a new IP RPG on a home system), that appeal cannot grow just because some people expect another system to magically change that.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

LordTheNightKnight on 10 February 2011
Soriku said:
Christian973 said:

Considering these JRPGS sales on the wii i wonder how Dragon Quest X will do. By now it must have been cancelled and moved to the 3DS. TLS on 3DS would have been a massive hit as a launch title but some decisions Nintendo makes baffle me sometimes.


lol, the Wii has no problem selling big games similar to DQ. I don't know why they would possibly port DQ X which they already said isn't far out to the 3DS which has 0 units sold. How TLS is comparable to DQ X is beyond me...

Anyway, TLS sales in JP suck but that's why they need to bring it over - it'll definitely sell better in the US, like LO.


Dragon Quest is an established IP, like Pokemon and Final Fantasy. So sales are a lot more sure there.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

scottie on 10 February 2011
jonager said:

iam really sad jrpg are really dying out. i just started playing vesperia and that game is awesome . i really miss the psx days


Haha

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&publisher=&console=&genre=RPG&minSales=0&results=500&sort=Total

 

PSx jrps, arranged by worldwide sales for all RPGs, come in at positions 

9 11 21 28

 

Same thing for DS

3 8 19 23 26 38 41 44

 

JRPGs are more alive than they ever have been.



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NoirSon on 10 February 2011
Darth Tigris said:
jacks81x said:
Darth Tigris said:

See!  It wasn't the 360's fault.  Blue Dragon opened bigger than this.  Japanese gamers don't want new IP's.  Why is so much focus put on them???

 

Because every studio wants to create that next great money-making franchise.  It's not that Japanese gamers don't want new IP's.  It's that Japanese developers haven't come out with any truly great new IP's lately.  Remember, all great game  franchises started out as new IP's at one point in time.  Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Pokemon, Monster Hunter, etc were all new IPs once.  So obviously it's not accurate that Japanese gamers don't like new IP's.  

I just edited my statement to be more clear.  I was referring to why put so much focus on Japanese consumers, not new IP's.  New IP's are the future and lifeblood of the industry.

Sales trends show that Japanese gamers as a whole are driven by nostalgia for classic franchises far more than new IP's.  How many RPG's really sell other than DQ or FF?

Agreed, Japanese gamers don't hate new IPs, they are just like Western gamers and are notorious bandwagon jumpers. 

So far TLS is doing on par with most other RPGS, outside of the massive popular stuff, most RPGs sell a few hundred thounsand in Japan and then disappear after 2-3 weeks from the top ten. While Last Story was hyped amount the Wii audience, Japan's Wii gaming hasn't exactly been stellar, outside of MH Tri, almost every game save a few casuals usually wind up doing this, good debuts but crappy legs.



jacks81x on 10 February 2011
Darth Tigris said:
jacks81x said:
Darth Tigris said:

See!  It wasn't the 360's fault.  Blue Dragon opened bigger than this.  Japanese gamers don't want new IP's.  Why is so much focus put on them???

 

Because every studio wants to create that next great money-making franchise.  It's not that Japanese gamers don't want new IP's.  It's that Japanese developers haven't come out with any truly great new IP's lately.  Remember, all great game  franchises started out as new IP's at one point in time.  Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Pokemon, Monster Hunter, etc were all new IPs once.  So obviously it's not accurate that Japanese gamers don't like new IP's.  

I just edited my statement to be more clear.  I was referring to why put so much focus on Japanese consumers, not new IP's.  New IP's are the future and lifeblood of the industry.

Sales trends show that Japanese gamers as a whole are driven by nostalgia for classic franchises far more than new IP's.  How many RPG's really sell other than DQ or FF?

Again, DQ and FF started out as new IP's once.  So why did Japanese gamers enjoy the very first game of those franchises when they were neither classic nor had the nostalgia factor?  Perhaps the really question is, why hasn't Japanese developers been able to develop mega-successful new RPG IP's like DQ1 and FF1?  



LordTheNightKnight on 10 February 2011
jacks81x said:
Darth Tigris said:
jacks81x said:
Darth Tigris said:

See!  It wasn't the 360's fault.  Blue Dragon opened bigger than this.  Japanese gamers don't want new IP's.  Why is so much focus put on them???

 

Because every studio wants to create that next great money-making franchise.  It's not that Japanese gamers don't want new IP's.  It's that Japanese developers haven't come out with any truly great new IP's lately.  Remember, all great game  franchises started out as new IP's at one point in time.  Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Pokemon, Monster Hunter, etc were all new IPs once.  So obviously it's not accurate that Japanese gamers don't like new IP's.  

I just edited my statement to be more clear.  I was referring to why put so much focus on Japanese consumers, not new IP's.  New IP's are the future and lifeblood of the industry.

Sales trends show that Japanese gamers as a whole are driven by nostalgia for classic franchises far more than new IP's.  How many RPG's really sell other than DQ or FF?

Again, DQ and FF started out as new IP's once.  So why did Japanese gamers enjoy the very first game of those franchises when they were neither classic nor had the nostalgia factor?  Perhaps the really question is, why hasn't Japanese developers been able to develop mega-successful new RPG IP's like DQ1 and FF1?  


They weren't mega hits right off the bat. They had to establish themselves.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

jacks81x on 10 February 2011
LordTheNightKnight said:
jonager said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
jacks81x said:
JTurner82 said:

However, there is an argument that I can make in TLS' favor.  Mistwaker's previous console RPGs, Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey both had second weeks around the 10k range, totalling in at about 18k and 12k, respectively.  Drastic as TLS' second week sales are, they're still a bit higher than that, so with any luck it still may go on to be Mistwaker's best selling IP in Japan.  Of course, that is assuming if it can provide enough staying power, but given how new IPs perform in Japan these days, particularly new ones for the Wii, it is an iffy prospect at best.  (OTOH, it IS ahead of Xenoblade's second week by far--while that title didn't drop so drastically, it only made about 105k for its LTD.  TLS is above that.)

 

That's not a very good argument when you look at the user base of the two systems.  The Wii user base is almost 10 times that of the 360.  So that fact that TLS is only selling slight better than LO and Blue Dragon in absolutely numbers means the attach rate of TLS horrible compared to that of LO and Blue Dragon.  


Userbase does NOT mean ALL sales are equivalent. Userbase only oncreases potential customers, not actual customers.


yh but with wii's huge userbase when compare with 360. you would expect TLS to do better


Expecting does not make something happen. Factors make something happen. If a game only has so much appeal no matter the system (in this case a new IP RPG on a home system), that appeal cannot grow just because some people expect another system to magically change that.

Yes, factors make something happen.  And a big factor is the userbase.  You are more likely to purchase a game if you own the console already.  Releasing a game on the 360 in Japan is a risky proposition because even if the game appeals to a lot of people, a significant portion of that crowd will not purchase the game because they don't own a 360.    So having a small user base is certainly a negative factor.  Conversely, with a large userbase like the Wii has, you won't have as many scenarios like the aforementioned where fans whom the game appeals to don't end up buying the game because they don't own the console.



jacks81x on 10 February 2011
LordTheNightKnight said:
jacks81x said:
Darth Tigris said:
jacks81x said:
Darth Tigris said:

See!  It wasn't the 360's fault.  Blue Dragon opened bigger than this.  Japanese gamers don't want new IP's.  Why is so much focus put on them???

 

Because every studio wants to create that next great money-making franchise.  It's not that Japanese gamers don't want new IP's.  It's that Japanese developers haven't come out with any truly great new IP's lately.  Remember, all great game  franchises started out as new IP's at one point in time.  Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Pokemon, Monster Hunter, etc were all new IPs once.  So obviously it's not accurate that Japanese gamers don't like new IP's.  

I just edited my statement to be more clear.  I was referring to why put so much focus on Japanese consumers, not new IP's.  New IP's are the future and lifeblood of the industry.

Sales trends show that Japanese gamers as a whole are driven by nostalgia for classic franchises far more than new IP's.  How many RPG's really sell other than DQ or FF?

Again, DQ and FF started out as new IP's once.  So why did Japanese gamers enjoy the very first game of those franchises when they were neither classic nor had the nostalgia factor?  Perhaps the really question is, why hasn't Japanese developers been able to develop mega-successful new RPG IP's like DQ1 and FF1?  


They weren't mega hits right off the bat. They had to establish themselves.

They're not mega hits like they are today (there were no such thing as marketing for video games back in the day).  So there was no hype or preexisting expectations for them.  Also, game sales back in the day were not ridiculously front-loaded like they are today.  Both DQ1 and FF1 sold very well and consistently for pretty much the whole first year of their release, primarily because they were in many ways pioneers in the genre and they were pretty damn good games as well.  You can tell whether a new IP will take off as a franchise by the legs of its sales.  Generally, for a new IP to establish itself, it relies very much on word of mouth and recommendations from friends.