IMO, this is completely wrong.

There is a very strong, and definite trend with console generations that initially puzzled me - but I now accept it.

And its this:

The average sales of an average title are highest at the start of the generation - and lowest at the tail end of the generation.

Japan at the moment is the perfect example of this. The PS2 games coming out now, should (in all reality) be the best PS2 games ever made. The PS2 also has the highest install base it has ever had (not even including PS3 consoles).

So when a good game comes out, it should sell well... right?

Well - wrong. I won't plough through the numbers here, but if you pick a typical "series" game (released every year), and graph the sales - they drop. Why is this??

I don't have a good answer really. Maybe a combination of sequelitis & ratio of games:install base (this starts very high, and continues to drop throughout the lifetime of a console). Its also that titles that arrive first, have more time to sell (when compared to later titles).

(also once next-gen consoles arrive, people who own them are less likely to buy last-gen software)

One quick example - Powerful Pro Baseball (Japan):

#10 (PS2) - 510k + 200k

#11 (PS2) - 420k + ??? (no listed final edition)

#12 (PS2) - 450k + 110k

#13 (PS2) - 350k + 110k

#14 (PS2) - 220k (to date) 

...

Anyway, the conclusion is that if they focus on the PS2 - they will find ever decreasing sales and profits. And when the PS2 is phased out completely, its a long way to catch up on other consoles.

(and the hardware PS2 sales in Japan are weak, and definitely dying off. And with more big titles like DQIX moving to other platforms, there won't be a recovery...).

So wait, according to Sega the Wii will die in the next 2 years since it is too weak but the PS2 will live on? Eh, I think it's already been said many times before that Sega is the last company from which you want to take advice about the console market and I think that's all that needs to be said here.

Shams.. this is from Sega... last December..

Without reading it, I predict they said Xbox 360...

Edit: Whoops, I was wrong!  Anyway, I tend to agree that PS2 is on the way out, but I can see why Sega might have predicted this a year ago - nobody knew Wii would be soi popular, and the pricing on 360 and PS3 was terrible.

I agree that PS2 will be around for the holidays of this year and next but I hope their strategy has changed. (I believe it has) Sega overall is a good company and I wouldn't want to see them go down. (Wish they'd make a real new Phantasy Star though.)

Like the GBA, many people will still buy PS2 in order to replace broken or stolen models.

God of war X2

kingdomhearts X2

Grantheft autoX3

ratchet seriesX3

devil may cry seriesX3

shadow colossusX1

tekken X2

ffX4

and more thats about 20 AAA titles, even though I just got them out of the top of my head, ps2 has more than enough games for any casual or hardcore gamer.

GBA's break?

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Leo-J, I think Legend11 meant coming out this year. 

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Even if Sega still believes this, where is the PS2 support from them?

Considering that the Wii had only just come out, thats actually a pretty sensible prediction. The PS2 is dirt cheap and has the largest game library ever. And games are still coming. If the wii was doing gamecube levels right now, the other two probably wouldn't have price cuts yet (maybe the 360) and the PS2 would be flying along at a steady clip.

Keep in mind the PS2 will still be the most affordable console this holiday season and should continue to chug along.

Although looking ahead to 2008 I can't imagine it having too much more holding power since its a "given" that the Wii will be $199 at most, Xbox 360 Core @ $199 likely, and PS3 (maybe even bigger HD?) at the $399 pricepoint perhaps.