By 175m, I meant around the lifetime base of the DS. And I don't think the iOS devices will actually take away consumers who have already enjoyed the DS, core or casual. They'll just prevent new consumers from becoming 3DS customers because the iOS products might seem like a better deal.

by consumers i mean the casual players, people who have no brand loyalty and who are easily swayed. ios devices can easily take them.

300 million? What make people say this lol. It will selll at the launch price of the PSP, it also launched at 249$/euros.

But its Nintendo, so I expect 3DS lifetime sales to be at 100-110 million. It will not have the same impact as the DS because:

1. 100$/euros more expensive

2. Nintendo said they won't make a 3DS Lite, so not many variations and models and different colors already available at launch

3. Its basically the same as DS, the ad campaigns will not make the casuals go wow, the DS/Wii had that factor because it was different than traditional gaming.

Casuals are as loyal as cores, if not more. Cores have shown time and time again that they'll go wherever they feel like, with SNES Genesis to PS1 and PS2 to Wii60. Casuals haven't. I'd expect them to be more loyal to Nintendo after having played Nintendogs, Brain Age, MKDS, NSMBDS and Pokemon DP/BW and seeing sequels to these games on 3DS.

thats were you have it wrong. everytime casuals see something new they jump do it. a good example is kinect. when it comes to pokemon the small boys wil run and get a 3ds, as well as the big boys :P everyone loves pokemon, but the people who play brain age, and nitendogs wont run when they see sequals if they have an iphone in their hands.

....yep....i give up on you :P

Have you any example of this happening in the video game market? It isn't the same casuals buying every device and every game, you know. The people who have bought Kinect, assuming MS keeps serving them well, will stick with its sequel as long as it also has the software they know they want. They won't go away to a competing product like Apple Motion, or something. Same goes with every other device and pretty much every other audience.

ios devices are the new cool and its going to be hard for the 3ds to break that. also its going to be hard fo the 3ds to get into mcdonalds, if you know what i mean.

I don't disagree with that, but those who have already owned the DS won't be rejecting the 3DS as long as it has NSMB, MK and Nintendogs releasing, even if it's not the new cool.

you obviously hae never been addicted to iphone games.

let me put it this way.

ios devices: blastoise

consoles:charizard

charizard is beast but when blastoise finds you, he kills your interest for charizard with one water gun, charizard barely  survives and throws fire blast which has no affect. then blastoise wins. and you dont touch your dead charizard ever again.