A simple test for the hardcore players.

Count how many are in your family. Count how many are NOT hardcore players. Divide the first number into the second one. This % is the number that the Wii can get to.


Alright, a bit facious about that. But still, so many non-Wii fanboys believe it is all antedotal evidence of casuals picking up a Wii Sports and having fun with it. Or at best, a fad. IMO, a fad is something that becomes popular, but only does one thing. Therefore, it gets boring. Hula hoops, talking Elmos, etc. were fun for a while, but then the fun wore off. The difference that I see with the Wii, is as long as there are games that come out, as entertaining as WiiSports AND as simple to use, the fun from the Wii will always be fresh for at least the generation (ie about 4 more years).

Renar said: A simple test for the hardcore players. Count how many are in your family. Count how many are NOT hardcore players. Divide the first number into the second one. This % is the number that the Wii can get to. Alright, a bit facious about that. But still, so many non-Wii fanboys believe it is all antedotal evidence of casuals picking up a Wii Sports and having fun with it. Or at best, a fad. IMO, a fad is something that becomes popular, but only does one thing. Therefore, it gets boring. Hula hoops, talking Elmos, etc. were fun for a while, but then the fun wore off. The difference that I see with the Wii, is as long as there are games that come out, as entertaining as WiiSports AND as simple to use, the fun from the Wii will always be fresh for at least the generation (ie about 4 more years).

 Its true, my family never was into games, now they want Wii, Guitar hero for Wii, Mario and Sonic and a few other games like Wii fit and mario party etc, so that's at least 3 or four systems and a bunch of games.  Sure most of those games would be derided by the "hardcore" but they are what the market wants.

 

If my mom can get excited about the Wii (she wanted me to leave mine back home, I told her to get her own, which she is), then it will be huge

greenmedic88 said: Sri Lumpa said: greenmedic88 said: Estimate 360 and PS3 sales to be a minimum of 15 and 8 million respectively for 23 million (lower than the actual total based on current weekly sales) combined. To obtain 50% of the market, the PS3 and 360 have to sell 17 million units combined in 2008. Less, if the Wii is supposed to exceed 50% of the overall market. Does that sound in any way shape or form reasonable? [...] I wouldn't say that's unreasonable, more like virtually impossible. Huh?!? You seem ignorant of the fact that the 360 launched in november '05 and had therefore a bit over two years to sell these 15.5-16 millions which means an average of about 7.5 millions a year... just like the PS3 (8.5-9 millions is for 14 months) for a total of 15 millions a year, with a big chunk of these sales stacked in the last two months. So even if the Wii does not increase production they still would have enough (21.6) to get to 50% marketshare (15 millions + 5.6 millions difference = 20.6). Now there are more factors like the 360/PS3 selling more this year with GTA4/MGS4 or the Wii possibly selling less (an opinion widely held by PS3 fans for more than a year now) but calling it virtually impossible is laughable at best. Of course you made a mistake in your yearly sales numbers but now that you have been corrected maybe you might want to reconsider your statement*. * assuming you see this post as your post is dated from 2 weeks ago. :) No, my opinion hasn't changed. The Wii sold 16 million and change this year (from 12/31/06 to 12/30/07). So now we have a lot of people predicting growth of up to 50% (assuming 24 million in sales for 2008) and more in some extreme cases. With about 25 million combined sales for the 360 and PS3 currently compared to about 20 million for the Wii, projecting a very optimistic 45 million by year's end means sales of the 360 and PS3 will have to stay at about 20 million combined. Not impossible, but unlikely. Assume 360 sales stay flat at about 8 million. And assume PS3 sales defy the current change in the rate of sales since November (due to the price drop) and mirror 2007 sales of about 7.5 million. Next, assume no drop in price for the 360 in 2008. Do the same for the PS3. Now I can see Nintendo gaining 50% of the market. What I don't see are all of the above happening in order for that 50% number to become reality. I could be wrong, and 2008 could be nothing but expansion for Nintendo while MS and Sony remain static, but this would defy conventional logic. Not fan logic, but the regular kind.

I doubt that Wii will sell 50% more in 08 but 30-40% more is doable (the former without production increase, the latter with production increase) though not guaranteed (depends on when demand is met in America/Japan).

Where I feel that your analysis is unrealistic is when you assume that the 360 will increase 100% this year (from around 8M to around 16M) as it is much less likely than the Wii increasing 50%.

I believe that around 10M for each of PS3 and 360 (one a bit higher and the other a bit lower so maybe 9M-11M or 11M-9M) is generous but possible with GTA4 and MGS4 for a total of 20M. This would still put it high enough that the Wii would not sell more than them enough to have 50% markeshare but it would put it quite close, hence why saying that it is impossible ofr the Wii to have 50% markeshare in 08 is unrealistic.

I personally think it might get it at some point in the year and then lose it during the holiday season but it is not guaranteed; or, if either of PS3/360 underperforms it might get it and keep it but that is even less likely.

I am NOT saying it will get it easily and keep it easily but I am saying that calling it impossible is unrealistic, especially when your justification for it doing so is the 360's sales doubling year over year the year after the 360's biggest exclusive came out (Halo 3).

Edit: If GT5 comes out in 08 then it will not happen as it is the only series from las gen that sold around 15M games and even though it will be weakened by the PS3's markeshare it should move enough systems to make it sure the Wii doesn't attain 50%.

Nice picture. =))))))))))))))))))))))))

I really don`t know how MANY there casuals, willing to buy Wii as a TOY. But definetely, their number is HUGE, and will be attracted any time by PRICE CUT. =))

Then again, Wii made 16 mln. in 2007. With total 19 mln.
x360 made total 16 mln and ps3 9 mln. overall 25 mln.

So, Wii must sell aditional 6 mln. in 2008 or Outsell PS3+x360 every week by 120k.
This week it did 92k.

BUT, x360 and ps3 definetely will have a PRICECUT in 2008, that will definetely raise sales. The possibility outselling ps3+x360 weekly sales for wii will be VERY low then, unle NIntendo will make a pricecut too. =)

p.s. i see more people buying PS3 40GB or x360 premium at 249$, then wii for 249$. =)

CrazzyMan said: Nice picture. =)))))))))))))))))))))))) I really don`t know how MANY there casuals, willing to buy Wii as a TOY. But definetely, their number is HUGE, and will be attracted any time by PRICE CUT. =)) Then again, Wii made 16 mln. in 2007. With total 19 mln. x360 made total 16 mln and ps3 9 mln. overall 25 mln. So, Wii must sell aditional 6 mln. in 2008 or Outsell PS3+x360 every week by 120k. This week it did 92k. BUT, x360 and ps3 definetely will have a PRICECUT in 2008, that will definetely raise sales. The possibility outselling ps3+x360 weekly sales for wii will be VERY low then, unle NIntendo will make a pricecut too. =) p.s. i see more people buying PS3 40GB or x360 premium at 249$, then wii for 249$. =)

 Hey if they are willing to lose so much money then i'm certain nintendo will let them bleed themselves dry, then snatch up the full market when their shareholders scream bloody murder

 

 

My prediction is something like

Wii: 45M
X360: 25M
PS3: 17M

Which means yes, yes it will.

EoG Wii will take 60% of the market.

RolStoppable said: fkusumot said: By any chance, did you steal this graph out of Pachter's brief case?

 LMFAO

@Avinash_Tyagi:

don`t forget EACH ps3 buyer is POTENTIAL blu-ray movie buyer = $ for Sony.
hint: people usually don`t buy blu-ray player for one movie, but they can buy one movie, if they already own blu-ray player. =)
+ PS3 already cost 400$ to produce. Don`t remember is that 40GB model cost that much or 80GB? =)

Anyway, 400$ to produce, 400$-500$ in USA and 400-500 euro(600-750$ in dollars) in Europe to sell.

I don`t know about M$, BUT Sony DEFINETELY is NOT going to bleed. =)

I think it is very possible for Wii to get 50% market share at some point in 2008. It is impossible to tell what Wii sales will be this year based on last year because it was supply constrained the whole year.

CrazzyMan said: Hey if they are willing to lose so much money then i'm certain nintendo will let them bleed themselves dry, then snatch up the full market when their shareholders scream bloody murder @Avinash_Tyagi: don`t forget EACH ps3 buyer is POTENTIAL blu-ray movie buyer = $ for Sony. hint: people usually don`t buy blu-ray player for one movie, but they can buy one movie, if they already own blu-ray player. =) + PS3 already cost 400$ to produce. Don`t remember is that 40GB model cost that much or 80GB? =) Anyway, 400$ to produce, 400$-500$ in USA and 400-500 euro(600-750$ in dollars) in Europe to sell. I don`t know about M$, BUT Sony DEFINETELY is NOT going to bleed. =)

 They are bleeding right now, so they will bleed then as well

 

By then other cheaper blu-ray players will be on the market taking away the PS3's big selling point