@ MrPickles

Easiest would be to have people each use their own TV set, the split screen (with the wrong output from the other person's perspective) may be too distracting.

With real virtual reality glasses a powerful enough console could send different signals to different VR sets. The advantage of VR glasses is that you won't feel like watching through a window but for example you can actually look next to you through the car window, look towards the dashboard or behind you through the rear window. It feels more like you're actually there, especially in combination with good 7.1 headphones!

I predict a N and S battle for the finish. It depends on N constantly pumping out at least 5 AAA titles for the system they have 2 confirmed AAA titles mario kart and SSBB, wiifit is too close to call till US numbers start coming in but i expect Wiifit to be another AAA. N needs least couple more good hits and hopefully more third party action.

MikeB said: Personally I think many Wii fans see the PS3's potential and thus resort to "pre-emptive strikes" and come to premature conclusions. IMO the Wii is currently doing business in the lower end of the market. IMO it's premature to claim a cheaper slimline PS3 in the future couldn't do very well for this market segment in the future as well and significantly outsell the Wii.

I am a rare Nintendo Fan Man that agrees with you.  I think that the Wii was built differently than the PS3. The Wii probably will last 5 to 6 years before it is replaced with Wii 2, but the PS3 has the potential to stay on the market 10 to 12 years. In that time period it is possible for it to beat the Wii (assuming that Wii sells at the same rate the next 5 or four years).

Wii 2 could be in a great position though if their happens to be some new technology out there. Sometimes it is easier to buy a new system than to buy a add-on--- well that's how the buyers have voted at least.

MikeB said: Mummelmann said: The handhelds are quite different still, with much weaker hardware QFT @ shams Do you think PDAs and smartphones compete much with desktop PCs? You can do almost everything on their small screens, browse the internet, send emails, watch movies, play games, a majority of functions desktop PCs are used for! A popular Amiga graphics app ported to PDAs, Photogenics (includes demonstration videos): http://www.idruna.com/products_pocketpc.html

Actually, laptops are a much closer analogy.  In the past, not only were laptops much more expensive for the same amount of power (or ridiculously underpowered for the same price), but it was just not possible to get one as good as the best desktop.  More recently, the prices came closer, and laptops more powerful, but still it was not possible to have a laptop as good as the desktop, and for the price of a desktop you could only get a laptop that was pathetic in comparison (but relatively less pathetic than in the past).  Today it is possible (if you don't mind spending way too much) to have a laptop as good as the best desktops out there. 

Similarly, the gap between handhelds and home consoles was enormous; later on, technology advances in both hardware and batteries helped the handhelds catch up, but home consoles were also taking leaps and bounds ahead.  Now, unlike laptops/desktops, there is still a huge gap between handhelds and home consoles, but at the same time handhelds are seriously narrowing the gap (perhaps due to home consoles' running into a technology barrier and lack of a dramatic technology benefit like NES/SNES, 2D/3D, etc.).  DS games look and play great; it has the advantage of much better hardware (like the 360) and innovative new control capabilities (like the Wii).  The PSP is like the PS3 would have been if it was launched at $400 -- a great success on its own, but not even close to Nintendo's juggernaut.  Also, I would argue that the laptop/desktop analogy still holds true because at normal price points there is still a huge technology gap between them. 

MikeB said: robjoh said: leo-j said: Wii wont sell out it cant!! Well I usually ignore you, but isn't Wii sold out now? So why can't it sell out next year?   The Wii isn't sold out here in the Netherlands. IMO there is little reason for the Wii to sell out currently, it's not a technically difficult product for Nintendo to mass produce and Nintendo has more than enough resources nowadays. I think it's partially artificial.

I don't know where you live in the Netherlands, but considering I sold a Wii above retail price just a few days ago the Wii wasn't that easily available in the Netherlands in December. It was in November and the months before, but after Sinterklaas I didn't see any Wiis in store in the region of Rotterdam/Den Haag.

@ Final-FanFinal-Fan

I think the PDA vs PC / Home console vs handheld console analogy was better. PDAs are less expensive and have tiny screens compared to desktop PCs and laptops, likewise for the handhelds compared to home console gaming setups.

Laptops are almost the same as PCs and thus you use the identical software, the reason why laptops are usually more expensive is that in technology limiting size and limiting the heat production is often more costly (compare 2.5 inch HDDs vs 3.5 inch HDDs). Looking inside your PC it's likely half empty and you'll have a few slots left over for possible future upgrades, likewise a PS3 is far more expandable compared to handheld consoles.



In terms of onboard memory and processing power the gap is enormous (at least between the DS/PSP vs 360/PS3, the gap between Wii and PSP is far less great considering the PSP has to render fewer pixels anyway due to its display specs).



You can do everything on an average laptop you can do on an average desktop PC. A decent laptop starts at less than 500 Euro, a decent desktop PC with Windows Vista, keyboard, mouse, DVD burner, 2 GB RAM, harddrive, LCD monitor, etc wouldn't be much cheaper.

@ koffieboon

Search for Wii: 

http://www.neck.nl/produkt/produkte.mb1 

(Direct Leverbaar)

Neckermann delivers a Wii to your doorstep within 24 hours.

 

MikeB said: @ Mummelmann The handhelds are quite different still, with much weaker hardware QFT @ shams Do you think PDAs and smartphones compete much with desktop PCs? You can do almost everything on their small screens, browse the internet, send emails, watch movies, play games, a majority of functions desktop PCs are used for! A popular Amiga graphics app ported to PDAs, Photogenics (includes demonstration videos): http://www.idruna.com/products_pocketpc.html

 Sorry for the late answer has been away to a good friend since the posts during yesterday.

 I am not shams but I would like to answer that question: If the users primary and only use of desctops applications is on a PDA then yes the PDA is competing with a desctop PC. Of course that is probarbly not the case and the PDA is more of a tool that helps the PC. BUT if we looke at the gaming plattforms we see another pattern:

* As the japanese markets looks today it handhelds stands for more than 50% of the software sales and more than 50% of the hardware sales. PSP and NDS is a turn around for the industry in Japan. Therefore it is wrong to exclude the handhelds when discussing Japan.

* I would also like to state that many people that bought a DS for the Brain series probarbly don't own another gaming plattform. Of course I might be wrong here but I personally sees that we have a lot of users joining in that haven't owned a plattform before that have chosen a DS. The DS have, if we can belive Nintendo, a large amount of older people owning it and a high rate of female players (owners). None of the other plattforms can show the same penetration of female players which means that there should be a number of gamers that only plays on the NDS. That means that the DS is competing with the consols.

MikeB said: Personally I think many Wii fans see the PS3's potential and thus resort to "pre-emptive strikes" and come to premature conclusions.

 IF you include me here so am I very sorry that I don't agree. I think that the PS3 is a great hardcore machine. I just think that it have gotten a bad name in the press, which will take some time to clean. I also think it have a problem because it is fighting the xbox360 in USA (wont even talk about the other markets were the 360 is more or less pointless) and the Wii. The 360 for the moment steals the hardcore customers away from PS3, those gamers that probarbly is Sonys first customers. Wii goes for the standard N-fan and casuals + female gamers. Something Sony has been really good with the PS2 (not that good with the PS3 yet).

MikeB said: MO the Wii is currently doing business in the lower end of the market. IMO it's premature to claim a cheaper slimline PS3 in the future couldn't do very well for this market segment in the future as well and significantly outsell the Wii.

 The main reason why I don't think that PS3 slimline will have that much impact on this segment is that it might be a little to late. Of course if the PS3 slimline had PS2 BC I would say that you are correct direct. The number one reason is singstar and buzz that could then be used on this slim line kicking of the a good healthy casual software sales. (PS2 is a beast here in Sweden at least when it comes to singstar).

Why do I then think it might be that the PS3 slim might get to late to the market. If we assume that PS3 slim can hit the market at christmas 2008 with singstar packed in for no more than 300€, then it might be able to fight of the fast growing party games collection the Wii is getting. That is also the main reason why I think that both Microsoft and Sony (when it comes to PS3, Ps2 is doing just fine) will have a problem breaking into the casual market and significant steal it from Nintendo. Nintendo will at that time (whne PS3 is at least close to mass market price) have a better catalog of games for the casual market. More Wii line titles from Nintendo, more party games from 3rd parties more accesories. If PS3 slim should beat out Nintendo for a longer run they must steal the customer that for the moment is fueling the success of the Wii. That isn't to an high degree not people looking for the latest high tech for an low price, it is the casuals that likes simple games. Sony needs to bring up the offerings for the eye, singstar, buzz and something new to take that market. They also needs to do this meanwhile Nintendo will have 2 years headstart giving this audiance what they want.

I might say that I don't hesitate one second to say that PS3 and Xbox360 will have more "hardcore" fps, racing fans than Wii. I do however belive that Wii might be a second consol for many of those hardcores and the first consol for many casual buyers.

@ robjoh

I think it's a much larger problem for the 360 for the long run, having to compete with the PS3 for the high end market and with the PS2 and Wii for the lower end market.

One analyst at gametrailers stated 90% of current 360 owners in the US owned the original XBox, if true the pool of upgrading former XBox (RIP) owners is rather limited. The almost complete demise of XBox software support may have triggered many to hop onto the 360 bandwagon sooner than would else have been the case.

Also Sony tried many new things, many of the currently available games are new franchises such as Motorstorm, Heavenly Sword, Resistance, Uncharted, Folklore, etc. This may well be beneficial for the long run when the more popular games get sequels and hit the market together with new versions of already proven franchises such as Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid.



I applaud expanding the market like Nintendo has, this may IMO become beneficial to other consoles for the long run as well, more people getting interested in gaming expands the market. I just hope Nintendo doesn't loose too much focuss on the more hardcore Nintendo fans for the long run, the gamers loving games like Mario Galaxy, Metroid, Zelda and such instead of playing much Wii Play, Wii Sport and Mario Party style games, which currently dwarf other past bestselling games in sales. Hopefully the new users learn to love the deeper games as well, which would IMO be great for the market as a whole.

MikeB said: if we can belive Nintendo, a large amount of older people owning it and a high rate of female players (owners). I applaud expanding the market like Nintendo has, this may IMO become beneficial to other consoles for the long run as well, more people getting interested in gaming expands the market. I just hope Nintendo doesn't loose too much focuss on the more hardcore Nintendo fans for the long run, the gamers loving games like Mario Galaxy, Metroid, Zelda and such instead of playing much Wii Play, Wii Sport and Mario Party like games, which currently dwarf other games in sales. Hopefully the new users learn to love the deeper games as well, which would IMO be great for the market as a whole.

 Seems like Nintendo has gotten a little bit hang of it. The last SMG advertisment, in Japan, where they use NSMB seems to at least make SMG beat SMS. Personally I hope that it will end up at least somewhere beatwhen SMS and SM64. SMG has atleast shown a strong sales in USA where it actualy has sold  more than MP8 already.

Other than that I fully agree, but you must agree that I do have a pint why we should include handhelds if there is a big amount of new DS only gamers out there.