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Forums - Sales - johnlucas makes a conservative prediction!

Mummelmann on 17 December 2007
RolStoppable said:
Mummelmann said:
ssj12 said:
fazz said:
Isn't that a bit too low ssj12? It made almost 20 million in a year... why would it do just 9 millions in the same time frame considering possible price cuts and bigger library?

Also, RolStoppable's one is actually very possible. PS3 will end up having Xbox 1-numbers if lucky, so it's not that silly!

nope I think there should be a slow down in sales.

 

End of the Year totals:

Wii: 18,904,709 units

360: 16,136,272 units

PS3: 8,798,598 units


A voice of reason... (hugs ssj12 and wipes a tear)

Voice of reason? All he said was that there should be a slow down in Wii sales next year without giving any specific reason why it would happen.


Yes, a voice of reason, a fellow member who realizes that God is not CEO of Nintendo. Just kidding, but seriously though, he and I have very similar outlooks on the future.

Seems more reasonable than 500-750 million lifetime sales of the Wii at any rate... 



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endurance on 17 December 2007
ssj12 said:
JL's prediction is still quite high... I'm predicting around 28 million by the end of 2008.

you think the wii will only sell 10 million in 08



Final-Fan on 17 December 2007
Mummelmann said:
RolStoppable said:
Mummelmann said:
ssj12 said:
fazz said:
Isn't that a bit too low ssj12? It made almost 20 million in a year... why would it do just 9 millions in the same time frame considering possible price cuts and bigger library?

Also, RolStoppable's one is actually very possible. PS3 will end up having Xbox 1-numbers if lucky, so it's not that silly!

nope I think there should be a slow down in sales.

End of the Year totals:
Wii: 18,904,709 units
360: 16,136,272 units
PS3: 8,798,598 units

A voice of reason... (hugs ssj12 and wipes a tear)

Voice of reason? All he said was that there should be a slow down in Wii sales next year without giving any specific reason why it would happen.

Yes, a voice of reason, a fellow member who realizes that God is not CEO of Nintendo. Just kidding, but seriously though, he and I have very similar outlooks on the future.

Seems more reasonable than 500-750 million lifetime sales of the Wii at any rate... 

Allow me to quote myself: 

ssj12 said:  I'm predicting around 28 million by the end of 2008.

Frankly, ssj12, that prediction is ridiculous.  Current production is 1.8 million a month and it is not up to demand.  1.8 x 12 = 21.6, but you expect only about 10 million more than this year's LTD, which means more like 0.8 million a month for 2008. 

Counting in the fact that sales early in the year are GUARANTEED to be closer to the 1.8 million figure, I can only conclude that you believe sales will dry up to around 500k per month after the first three or four months.  Is this actually what you believe will happen?  It sounds like crazy talk to me. 


Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Fastrabbit09 on 17 December 2007
ssj12 said:
JL's prediction is still quite high... I'm predicting around 28 million by the end of 2008.

how did u arrive at that number?

 1.8mil/month * 12 = 21.6mil produced in 2008, added to the 18mil or so by this year end = 39.6 million

 why would a system that sold out ALL YEAR LONG only 9 million in 2008 when wii fit, smash bros and mario kart all come out?

 it is FAR more likely that they up production to 2.5mil about halfway through and thus do around 44-45 mil by end of next year

 actually, i'd say 60mil is more likely than 28 mil...no way they only sell 9-10 mil next year...it's more likely that conservative nintendo ups their production to 3mil/month (VERY unlikely) because there is basically a 1% or less chance that they'd only sell 28 million

 wii is gonna sell over 150k consoles, so it can't only be selling 9mil/year



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp