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Forums - Sales - johnlucas makes a conservative prediction!

Final-Fan on 16 December 2007

Compared to the other ones in leo-j's signature. 

soriku: "PS3 will be lucky to make it to 5.5 Million by years end"

John lucas: "Wii will sell 60 million by the end of 2008"

avinash_Tyagi: "Wii will outsell the entire playstation family put together"

Rolstoppable: "The Wii will have at least tripled the combined sales of the 360  and PS3 once all three systems have stopped selling"



Soriku's prediction may already be off by more than 100% -- I didn't check to see when exactly the prediction was made.  (Depending on how you calculate difference in predicted vs. actual sales from prediction point to deadline.  Can someone tell me if it should be 100% or 50% or what?) 

avinash_Tyagi's goal for the Wii is already in excess of 250 million and is only going up, and RolStoppable's goal is potentially upwards of 300 million (ex. PS3 55m, 360 45m).  These guys' predictions may be less than 100% inaccurate, but still.  



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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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tokilamockingbrd on 16 December 2007

The only one that has a chance in hell is the Wii tripling PS3 and 360 sales... If 360 sell maybe 35 mill lifetime and ps3 does 50 (both very possible now Wii has the casual masses) that is 250+.... but maybe the Korean and Chinese Market would give it a chance,

 

BTW You compared him to himself.... lol



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Final-Fan on 16 December 2007
tokilamockingbrd said:

BTW You compared him to himself.... lol


"compared to the other ones"

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Grey Acumen on 17 December 2007

Actually, Soriku's is totally and completely accurate. He said it would be lucky to sell 5.5 million consoles. though implied, he never said the PS3 couldn't get lucky.



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My Prediction: Wii will be achieve 48% market share by the end of 2008, and will achieve 50% by the end of june of 09. Prediction Failed.

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ssj12 on 17 December 2007

JL's prediction is still quite high... I'm predicting around 28 million by the end of 2008.



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Sri Lumpa on 17 December 2007
ssj12 said:
JL's prediction is still quite high... I'm predicting around 28 million by the end of 2008.

 Huh? Did you make a mistake and mean 38 millions or do you think that the wii will sell 10-11 millions only in 2008?

 



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fazz on 17 December 2007

Isn't that a bit too low ssj12? It made almost 20 million in a year... why would it do just 9 millions in the same time frame considering possible price cuts and bigger library?

Also, RolStoppable's one is actually very possible. PS3 will end up having Xbox 1-numbers if lucky, so it's not that silly!



ssj12 on 17 December 2007
fazz said:
Isn't that a bit too low ssj12? It made almost 20 million in a year... why would it do just 9 millions in the same time frame considering possible price cuts and bigger library?

Also, RolStoppable's one is actually very possible. PS3 will end up having Xbox 1-numbers if lucky, so it's not that silly!

 nope I think there should be a slow down in sales.

 

End of the Year totals:

Wii: 18,904,709 units

360: 16,136,272 units

PS3: 8,798,598 units

 



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naznatips on 17 December 2007
ssj12 said:
JL's prediction is still quite high... I'm predicting around 28 million by the end of 2008.

So, you think they are going to go from 18 million by the end of 2007 to only another 10 million by the end of 2008 (over the whole next year)?  Historically second year sales are much higher than first year sales.  I would expect 35-40 million personally. 



Ickalanda on 17 December 2007

I think the only thing that would prevent the Wii from making it to John Lucas' prediction is supply constraints. If it weren't for supply problems the Wii could easily be at 25-30 million sold right now.



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