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Forums - Sales - How close will the big 3 be in 2011?

MrT-Tar on 08 January 2011

I think it will be close with Wii at 18m and 360 and PS3 at 13-15m each.

There really are too  many variables though




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TheNoobHolocaust on 08 January 2011

Wii - 18 million

360 - 15.5 million

PS3 - 15 million

3DS - 14 million

PSP2 - 6 million(launches in fall)

DS - 19 million

PSP - 9 million

$50 Price cut on PS3, pressuring 360 to do the same. PS3 sells more software than it ever has this year, 360 the same, but for different reasons, PS3 because of exclusive line-up, 360 because of Kinect. 3DS launches to a huge reception, but many people displeased by the $249 price tag, especially since the home consoles now go for $249. PSP2 gets a decent reception when it releases towards the end of the year. Wii continues a slow decrease in hardware sales, HD consoles have best year yet in terms of hardware sales.

Prediction of end of generation console sales, new consoles launch late 2013

Wii - 131 million

360 - 91 million(hits peak this year and then slowly starts selling under PS3 again)

PS3 - 89 million(steadier sales than 360)




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BoneArk on 08 January 2011

According to VGChartz, Wii sold 19.1, X360 sold 14.3, and the PS3 sold 14.4 worldwide in 2010. Adjustments could come in and change the numbers.

My 2011 prediction:

Wii: 17.5m (Besides Zelda, I'm not sure what other games Nintendo are going to release for the Wii in 2011,but, if they bring the Xenoblade, The Last Story, and the other Japanese games here to Americas and EMEAA then they can sell more Wiis.)

X360: 15m (I want to say 18m,but, I'm not sure about Kinect's momentum and I noticed that they were 3rd place in EMEAA in November & December.)

PS3: 16m (Software looks good and I think they'll support the PS Move in 2011.)

2011 should be close, unless price cuts happen then that will change things. I hope at E3 2011 we'll see some awesome stuff.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

StokedUp on 08 January 2011

i dont know about the wii as im not that interested in it, but out of the 2 HD consoles i'd say the 360 will just edge it this year as it seems ever since Kinect launch the US market have upped there sales massively on the console and that will probably stay the same all year. Although the PS3 will sell more in Europe and Japan.



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jonop on 08 January 2011

I think this year will be the closest year so far. My predictions are-

Wii- 17million
PS3- 15million
360- 14million



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Raze on 08 January 2011

With the big hitters now released on the 360 and PS3, I expect the sales to level off instead of increase. It may sell flat to last year instead of rise. Wii will still drop, a little less however with the Zelda Wii game coming out in 2011. Never underestimate the power of a Zelda game to bear the burden for an entire system.


Either this E3 or the next one we will get news of the next Nintendo home console.



The Carnival of Shadows - Folk Punk from Asbury Park, New Jersey

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puffy on 08 January 2011
kowenicki said:
puffy said:

It's so difficult to tell what may happen because there are just too many variables.. 

Momentum swings, price drops, unannounced exclusives, redesigns, unannounced accessories, manufacturer strategy etc..

On the Microsoft side of things.. They have the newest value offering, i.e. They just released a redesigned console, a new price for each SKU and Kinect (They basically pulled all of their aces out of their hat). They are the LEAST likely to move on price. However they currently have the most momentum in the market with Kinect resonating very well over the holiday period. 

To accurately portray the sales pattern for the 360 in 2011, one would have to predict how well Kinect will sell over the long term.. Will it fade more quickly than expected (brighter candles burn quicker etc) or will it continue to sell at a very high pace. You'd have to look at the demographics of the users buying it, the percentage of people who already owned a 360 prior to buying one and the games that will drive demand in the coming year. 

How about the core gamer? Microsoft seem to have a fairly thin release calendar (by 360 standards) this year in terms of exclusive content. Will late adopters switch to another platform if momentum changes due to a steady supply of exclusive content? Will the XBOX LIVE community be able to hold these guys to the 360 to play with their friends?

*****

Now onto the PS3.. If Sony don't drop the price on the PS3 this year, it'll have gone 2 years without a drop in price and you would expect that sales would suffer for that reason. However, it's also clear that Sony have less room to move than the Microsoft in terms of pricing due to hardware costs and also the potential launch of new portable hardware this year in the form of the PSP2. If Microsoft don't move on price, should Sony? Instead Sony could very well bundle the PS Move in with the hardware to add value to the box. It's a possibility that neither HD console will get a price drop this year.

On the other hand, marketing a product includes pricing it to hit sales targets. Sony's sales targets for this year see the PS3 having it's best year if I'm not mistaken. So if sales are dropping below an acceptable level and Sony want to stall the drop, a price drop is the way they will go. I don't think Microsoft will follow them if they drop the price. 

To predict a price drop for the PS3 one must look at the momentum of the system.. It seems to be doing OK worldwide and is actually on track to repeat the success it had last year (although it's very early days), I suspect the launches of exclusive titles in the coming months will help the PS3 maintain its current momentum but that momentum doesn't look like it's going to increase. If those titles can't arrest a fall in momentum, and if the PlayStation Move can't pick up in sales in the coming months with titles like Sorcery coming, Sony may have to consider revising the price of the system.

*****

Now finally we have Nintendo.. This is the hardest to read.. On face value the Wii is looking to continue its downward trajectory, with falling YoY sales. However what do we know about the Wii? We know it hasn't seen a price cut since late 2009, a similar time frame to the PS3, we know that the system is trending lower than last year, we know that it's still out-pacing the PS2, and we know that coming into 2011 Nintendo's internal development muscle is focused on the launch of the Nintendo 3DS. However it's what we don't know that's really interesting and essential in how one might predict 2011 will play out.

Mario Sports Mix, The Last Story, Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, Kirby's Epic Yarn (EU) are really all we know to be coming to Wii from Nintendo that have the potential to drive hardware in any sort of way and honestly, all of them put together won't drive it very far. Nintendo being the secretive bunch they are only leave us with clues and hints as to what they have in store and so you have to predict that here and now if you want to try to predict how the Wii might sell. Will Pikmin 3 finally make it out this year? Is Wii Relax going to finally show up? Will that new IP Miyamoto was talking about show up this year and will it be a Wii title?

It's my opinion that Nintendo delayed the Wii Vitality Sensor until the Kinect hype dies down, they know that with too many new things and up against a $500 million marketing campaign, something is going to be lost in the shuffle.. However how big an impact could it make, is the 'stress' market the next goldmine? Or will it be another failure like Wii Music? Nintendo have the ability to move on price but they will be stubborn (and they should be, they're still out-pacing the PS2) and will have to see quite a drop in momentum before they consider it. The launch of the 3DS could very well absorb part of a Wii price drop however with Nintendo certainly making a tidy profit on hardware at launch. On the other hand, it's also possible for Nintendo to launch the Vitality Sensor earlier in the year than expected and create a new market for relieving stress through gaming thereby boosting momentum and driving sales UP YoY. We simply don't know Nintendo's plans.

 

So even though I haven't made any predictions, I hope the community can appreciate the level of detail needed to be able to say that you've made an educated guess. My short paragraphs don't even scratch the surface.. I'll be back in the next couple of days though to try to make a prediction.. I hope this post can give a few people a new perspective on a few things though, particularly the huge price drops everybody is forecasting. 

 

Isnt that a contradiction?

 

Absolutely not, as you pulled both of those sentences out of context though, I'll explain.

Firstly, Microsoft have the newest value proposition in the redesigned console along with new price points and Kinect. Sony on the other hand has gone longer without a new value proposition this substantial. In that way you would expect Sony to move first.

The reason I said that Sony have less room to move however is based on hardware costs, leaving out any market strategy. Microsoft are making more profit than Sony and therefore have more flexibility in moving the price point if they see fit. However as I said, both consoles are in different positions in terms of their product lifecycle and therefore even if Sony have less flexibility on price, I think they are the ones more likely to make a change.



 

dunno001 on 08 January 2011

Hrm... this should be interesting. I'm predicting price drops for all 3. Net sales for 2011 will be:

Wii: 17m. I do think it will continue its slow descent, with the occasional boost from the cult games that people are wanting in various regions. If DQX is to release this year, add 0.5m to the total.

360: 15m. Kinect's momentum will keep the system selling, resulting in this being the peak year for the system. However, with Kinect not being the new and hot thing next holiday, its 4th Q will be down, bringing them more flat for the year rather than a sharp growth.

PS3: 14m. Move did create some interest in the system, but not enough of it is sustained. I think that things will start trending down for Sony, especially in the latter half of the year overall. I think PS3 has peaked in 2010.

Pricing: This will be an interesting one. I think the 3DS is going to be hard to find for most, if not all, of the year. Nintendo, aware of the system scarcity, will try to divert some of the attention and hype back toward the Wii in summer, with a $50 price cut in June or July. Microsoft I think will be prepared for this, and announce a $50 price cut on all 360 models at E3. Sony will do a $50 price drop about 1 week after E3, in an attempt to take away some of the discussion on MS's price drop at E3. OR...

Scenario 2: Microsoft can choose to be aggressive. Right after the launch of the 3DS, announce the price drop. (In this case, it will still be $50 across the board for all platforms.) Nintendo will probably delay their price drop to E3 where there is attention, but I do think that Sony will scramble to get a price drop to compete with this. OR...

Scenario 3: Sony takes the plunge into the price cuts first. Say... April or May, when the PSP2 is officially announced. They will market connectivity to the PS3, and to promote cross-users, announce a $50 price cut on the PS3. Like in number 2, I think Nintendo will delay to E3, but MS will take a MUCH more aggressive plan. The price on Kinect alone may be cut (price TBD based on current stock availiability, ranging from $100 to $130), the 360 core would go to $150, the core w/ Kinect and the Elite models would go $230, and the Elite w/ Kinect would drop all the way to $300. This puts the system with Kinect cheaper than the cheapest PS3, and the fully-loaded 360 on price with the 320 GB PS3.

For the record, the Wii is not going to $100, and the PS3 is not going to $200. I believe that both will be rather firmly in the $50 price cut category.



-dunno001

-On a quest for the truly perfect game; I don't think it exists...

Squilliam on 09 January 2011

I will say the big thing for Sony in 2011 is going to be the $299 PS3 with Move and $249 PS3 without it. The $100 price cut is going to be on the Move SKU which they will focus on for 2011 in order to broaden their market. That way they can go a little down market and capture more of the price concious people whilst maintaining their pricing with a $20 accessory and therefore keeping their overall margins higher because the $299 SKU will remain the main console sold.

Such a price cut can happen any time they want however they won't violate the 90? day price assurances many people have from stores so it is unlikely to happen in Q1 which leaves either April, June at E3 or September as the 3 likely dates.

 



Tease.

mundus6 on 09 January 2011

Personally i'm feeling that both 360 and PS3 will go up from 2010 while Wii will go down, so very close indeed. In USA 360 will be first, but worldwide probably Wii, followed by either PS3 or 360, it really depends on the price cuts and if Kinect can keep momentum.