How close will the big 3 be in 2011?

[dunno001]

Hrm... this should be interesting. I'm predicting price drops for all 3. Net sales for 2011 will be:

Wii: 17m. I do think it will continue its slow descent, with the occasional boost from the cult games that people are wanting in various regions. If DQX is to release this year, add 0.5m to the total.

360: 15m. Kinect's momentum will keep the system selling, resulting in this being the peak year for the system. However, with Kinect not being the new and hot thing next holiday, its 4th Q will be down, bringing them more flat for the year rather than a sharp growth.

PS3: 14m. Move did create some interest in the system, but not enough of it is sustained. I think that things will start trending down for Sony, especially in the latter half of the year overall. I think PS3 has peaked in 2010.

Pricing: This will be an interesting one. I think the 3DS is going to be hard to find for most, if not all, of the year. Nintendo, aware of the system scarcity, will try to divert some of the attention and hype back toward the Wii in summer, with a $50 price cut in June or July. Microsoft I think will be prepared for this, and announce a $50 price cut on all 360 models at E3. Sony will do a $50 price drop about 1 week after E3, in an attempt to take away some of the discussion on MS's price drop at E3. OR...

Scenario 2: Microsoft can choose to be aggressive. Right after the launch of the 3DS, announce the price drop. (In this case, it will still be $50 across the board for all platforms.) Nintendo will probably delay their price drop to E3 where there is attention, but I do think that Sony will scramble to get a price drop to compete with this. OR...

Scenario 3: Sony takes the plunge into the price cuts first. Say... April or May, when the PSP2 is officially announced. They will market connectivity to the PS3, and to promote cross-users, announce a $50 price cut on the PS3. Like in number 2, I think Nintendo will delay to E3, but MS will take a MUCH more aggressive plan. The price on Kinect alone may be cut (price TBD based on current stock availiability, ranging from $100 to $130), the 360 core would go to $150, the core w/ Kinect and the Elite models would go $230, and the Elite w/ Kinect would drop all the way to $300. This puts the system with Kinect cheaper than the cheapest PS3, and the fully-loaded 360 on price with the 320 GB PS3.

For the record, the Wii is not going to $100, and the PS3 is not going to $200. I believe that both will be rather firmly in the $50 price cut category.