Good topic, Kowenicki!

My view of the situation is about what you have said.  I feel the Wii will be down again (following the more traditional 5 year life cycle with sales declining now YoY).  The 360, IMO, has the best shot at being UP by a good margin again next year.  If Kinect keeps generating hype and word of mouth driving sales, this year could be big.  Microsoft still has room to slash $100 off of consoles and still break even or profit slightly, as well as cut prices on Kinect.  They have a lot of cards to play this year and I feel they have the best options over the other two.

Don't get me wrong, I think all 3 will have price cuts this year, but the 360 will have the most impact and be able to drop the most out of the 3 (While remaining profitable that is. Obviously Sony or Nintendo could slash prices deeper and take hits on hardware if they wanted).

Sony could also be UP slightly this year following good Move support and a price cut to Move and the system.  The Wii I do not see anything that could stabilize it's sales, it's on the way out while the 360 and PS3 have added new options to keep their systems going.

great thread!

i pesonally think all 3 systems ship really close to 17M each next year.  should be a really close battle. xD

In my prediction thread I already predicted sales for 2011.

360__14 Million

PS3__15.4 Million

Wii__21.8 Million

For annual sales I see this:

Wii: 17m
X360: 12m
PS3: 13m

For total at end of 2011 I see this:

Wii: 101m
X360: 63m
PS3: 59m

This year we'll see pricecuts from each, probably around $50 per model and by the end of the year we'll hear rumblings of next gen. Definitely E32012 will see next gen stuff.

i know this is a lost 'cause before i even start....

...but what is going to drive the increase YTD in wii sales in your opinion?

360 and Wii will be close throughout the year. PS3 will be behind but not too drastically, it will definately need a price cut in NA to compete with Kinect's momentum.

What leads you to believe that? Wiis were produced at $88 (I've posted this link somewhere before, I think - http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20090407124321_Nintendo_Wii_Costs_Roughly_88_to_Manufacture__Analysts.html#) back in mid 2009. Surely you'd think that Wii's even lower now and, considering 360 cost over 300 bucks to manufacture at launch, I doubt it's that low by now.

Anyway, on topic, I don't expect it to be as close as this year. I expect Japan to abandon 360 and Americas to start letting go off PS3 in the same way as Japan's let go of 360. Sony will probably try to step up their game, which may also leave 360 in the dust in EMEAA. Wii should continue to decline at about the same pace and 360 may be closer to it, but PS3 I think will start falling behind next year.

I knew somebody would ask Lol

In my opinion all 3 systems will be up Y.O.Y in 2011.(I count week ending January 1st as 2011 so 360 selling 14 Million will still be up Y.O.Y)

Wii will be up Y.O.Y because of a better starting lineup in Early 2011, A predicted Price Cut, and I have a strong feeling that Nintendo is being quiet about something big for the Wii. I think that something is the Vitality Sensor which as you can tell by my sig will be HUGE in my personal opinion. We know about Sony's lineup as of now and Microsoft will be doing a lot with Kinect but we don't know what Nintendo has planned and if they do what I think they will do I expect Wii to be up Y.O.Y.(I think they will have a Price Cut, Vitality Sensor and more)

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=119878

I think PS360 will keep to a fairly stable pace. next year will probably be the peak for each of them (though 2012 inst impossible so to speak) the wii i believe will continue to decline until Nintendo release it success when i think it will die out quite quickly.