Any chance of this happening you guys think? Without any downjustments in the forseeable future I reckon 360 has a nice shot at doing 65M by the end of 2011, with the impending price cut and hopefully more plentiful months prior to the launch of slim. Would that make the 2011 the 360s peak year? I think, without any adjustments it will need to do about ~13.8m.

Thoughts/opinions?

Easily, especially at the rate its going.

Still on the fence on whether or not it'll be up YOY, but 13.8m should be easily doable.

Until 2010, x360 was barely reaching 10m/year. It currently stands at 51m. That means it needs about 14m units to hit 65m. Considering 2010 was its best year ever with a slim model launch and a surprisingly (to me) successful Kinect and it just reached 14m for the year, I think I'd bet on it not reaching 65m.

More than likely there will be a price drop. I think Kinect will still be successful, but not continue to sell at this rate now that xmas is over. I think by the end of this year we'll be hearing rumblings about next gen.

All of this to me means x360's best result is back to around 10-12m in 2011. Thus, it should break 60m, but not 65m; IMHO.

it's in reach the question is how long the legs of kinect are.... you have 2 ways either it's the new Wii like frenzy and a bunch of "non" core gamer buy one and then the sale could easily pass that... or it slows down fast and then it will depends on the game release for core gamers and in that case we have to see how many of those don't have a 360 yet... in that case it will be harder but still possible....

as long as theres no adjustments then its got 13.8 million in the bag

Im predicating over the year : there will be atleast 1 more big exclusive to go with gears and forza, a 360 and kinect pricecut, and a hardcore kinect title for christmas

all these things should help the 360 go possibly a little bit past 65 mill

Hm, I think in this case the 60M is given this year, it's a question whether there will be a price cut and how big it will be. If the price cut is substantial in a range of $50-$100 then I think, combined with Kinect it can push an additional 3M in growth. You got to remember, the numbers before the launch of Slim were abysmal, I'd be surprised if 360 falls below YoY at all up to June(About the slim launch weeks)

Depends on the impact that the inevitable price cut will have. Although after seeing what happened with the DS last year I'm not entirely convinced that that will be enough to ensure that it's up YOY.

Sounds about right. Save for a price cut there isn't a whole lot left to drive sales and the console itself is already more than affordable. I don't think it will sell as well as 2010 this year, the last quarter was insane and I can't see it pulling several million weeks in the holiday season again.

All three consoles will be down yoy I think.

One year wonder? No, not quite but I don't expect it to move anywhere near as well this holiday season as it did in 2010. The current gen consoles are getting old, Kinect or not and the new generation is probably right around the corner. We may even hear announcements of new consoles in 10-15 months imo.