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Forums - Sales - Conegamer's Official 2011 predict-a-thon. ENTRIES NOW OPEN!!!

Conegamer on 06 January 2011
Beuli2 said:
Conegamer said:
Beuli2 said:

I'll make a mega analysis of last year's hardware sales and then I'll win for sure! You're all doomed!

NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

 

...but are you going to make predictions for this year then?

I'll try.

Well then you'll have stiff competition from me and other people then



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Immortal on 06 January 2011

I'll edit later then, :D.

-insert correct predictions here-



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

ice444 on 06 January 2011

1. Console sales (30)

WII - 105 million

360 - 70 million

PS3 - 60 million

3DS - 50 million

DS - 200 million

PSP - 80 million

2. Games sales (20)

Mega-successful (over 5 mil) Duke Nukem Forever

Super successful (over 3 mil) Mass Effect 3,

Surprise success (over 1 mil, but not expected to be) Cities in motion

a flop (under 500k) The sims medieval

"supa flop" (under 250k) Darkspore

 

3. Super-predictor (4-20)

This is the "wild card" round, where you have to choose 2-10 predictions which you think could happen this year. 

A new gta will be announced

The wii will get an upgrade



Notorius.A.i.G on 06 January 2011

Sign me up !!!



Who's the best Pac, Nas, and Big. Just leave it to that.

PLAYSTATION®3 is the future.....NOW.......B_E_L_I_E_V_E

Slaughterhouse Is The Sh*t  .... NOW ........ B_E_L_I_E_V_E

Notorius.A.i.G on 06 January 2011
Conegamer said:

Yep, welcome everyone to the new year! Have fun I hope? At any rate, my duty as awesome-thread creator cannot be tarnished in this new year (NO EXAMS CAN STOP ME!!!), so I'm starting off with something a bit different...

(NOTE-Those of you with good memories may remember my 4th thread, the "not quite official GOTY awards", which have now been tallied and ready to be announced on the 15th January. Also, those waiting for another "against the grain" thread should wait until the same date. Stay tuned!)

Ultimately, my goal is to create a thread where the best predictor wins a prize of my choice (hopefully WiiWare gift of your choice!), over a total of 3 catergories:

1. Console sales (30)

Pretty obvious really. Predict end-of-year sales for the 360, PS3, Wii, 3DS, DS and PSP. At different points throughout the year (say, every month), I shall return to this thread, and tip who are my favourites to "win" (i.e. be most accurate)

5 points will be awarded for being within 0.5mil for each console, 4 points for being within 1mil, 3 points for within 1.5mil etc. 

With a total of 6 consoles on the market next year, that's a total of 30 points!

2. Games sales (20)

This one is a bit different. For this, you have to pick a game which you believe will be mega-successful (over 5 mil), super successful (over 3 mil), surprise success (over 1 mil, but not expected to be), a flop (under 500k) and a "supa flop" (under 250k). There's a total of 4 points for each correctly predicted game, however, games released in the last 10 weeks of the year don't count (for obvious reasons )

3. Super-predictor (4-20)

This is the "wild card" round, where you have to choose 2-10 predictions which you think could happen this year. 

Examples for this year would be:

 

  • I believe there will be a new Donkey Kong Country game announced
  • I believe there will be an announcement of a new Kid Icarus game
  • I believe a new Elder Scrolls game will be announced 
  • I believe there will be a Conduit 2 announcement
    • For each correct prediction, you gain 2 points. However, for each incorrect prediction, you will LOSE A POINT
    Again, any major stories/ correct predictions will be added when they have been anounced, so check back regularly, to keep an eye on your score, where I expect you to be placed, and who wins at the end of it all!
    So yeah, I hope you like the idea, and are willing to take part. Ideally, I'd like this thread to be "stickied" for future reference, because I think it's cool!
    However, I shall only allow this to continue if there are more than 15 people taking part by the closing date. I shall also post my predictions (saved on the computer) when there have been 10 other people confirmed to take part
    Current users taking part:
    1. Conegamer
    2. Morenoingrato
    3. Pavolink
    4. snfr
    5. homer

    ...slightly less lonely list! Keep them coming people!

    So, get voting, show us how good you are at predicting, but most importantly, HAVE FUN.
    Over to you 

     

    Do I post my predictions now ? Or will you make another thread just for them ?



    Who's the best Pac, Nas, and Big. Just leave it to that.

    PLAYSTATION®3 is the future.....NOW.......B_E_L_I_E_V_E

    Slaughterhouse Is The Sh*t  .... NOW ........ B_E_L_I_E_V_E

    Around the Network
    Immortal on 06 January 2011

    By the way, do you mind if I give you a suggestion?

    For the game sales section, it's far too easy. There will obviously be at least 5 games in each category. For the 5m and 3m games, I can just say obvious ones like Wii Sports (if you say non-bundled and released in 2011, there's still dozens of obvious ones) and for the flops, I can just name random niche games no one knows about. For the last category, it's too vague -- you can't define expectations.

    A better system would be asking about the sales of five random games (high profile would work best obviously) throughout the course of the year like a month before they release and ask the contenders to give weekly estimates.



     

    “These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

    Conegamer on 07 January 2011
    Notorius.A.i.G said:
    Conegamer said:

    Yep, welcome everyone to the new year! Have fun I hope? At any rate, my duty as awesome-thread creator cannot be tarnished in this new year (NO EXAMS CAN STOP ME!!!), so I'm starting off with something a bit different...

    (NOTE-Those of you with good memories may remember my 4th thread, the "not quite official GOTY awards", which have now been tallied and ready to be announced on the 15th January. Also, those waiting for another "against the grain" thread should wait until the same date. Stay tuned!)

    Ultimately, my goal is to create a thread where the best predictor wins a prize of my choice (hopefully WiiWare gift of your choice!), over a total of 3 catergories:

    1. Console sales (30)

    Pretty obvious really. Predict end-of-year sales for the 360, PS3, Wii, 3DS, DS and PSP. At different points throughout the year (say, every month), I shall return to this thread, and tip who are my favourites to "win" (i.e. be most accurate)

    5 points will be awarded for being within 0.5mil for each console, 4 points for being within 1mil, 3 points for within 1.5mil etc. 

    With a total of 6 consoles on the market next year, that's a total of 30 points!

    2. Games sales (20)

    This one is a bit different. For this, you have to pick a game which you believe will be mega-successful (over 5 mil), super successful (over 3 mil), surprise success (over 1 mil, but not expected to be), a flop (under 500k) and a "supa flop" (under 250k). There's a total of 4 points for each correctly predicted game, however, games released in the last 10 weeks of the year don't count (for obvious reasons )

    3. Super-predictor (4-20)

    This is the "wild card" round, where you have to choose 2-10 predictions which you think could happen this year. 

    Examples for this year would be:

     

  • I believe there will be a new Donkey Kong Country game announced
  • I believe there will be an announcement of a new Kid Icarus game
  • I believe a new Elder Scrolls game will be announced 
  • I believe there will be a Conduit 2 announcement
    • For each correct prediction, you gain 2 points. However, for each incorrect prediction, you will LOSE A POINT
    Again, any major stories/ correct predictions will be added when they have been anounced, so check back regularly, to keep an eye on your score, where I expect you to be placed, and who wins at the end of it all!
    So yeah, I hope you like the idea, and are willing to take part. Ideally, I'd like this thread to be "stickied" for future reference, because I think it's cool!
    However, I shall only allow this to continue if there are more than 15 people taking part by the closing date. I shall also post my predictions (saved on the computer) when there have been 10 other people confirmed to take part
    Current users taking part:
    1. Conegamer
    2. Morenoingrato
    3. Pavolink
    4. snfr
    5. homer

    ...slightly less lonely list! Keep them coming people!

    So, get voting, show us how good you are at predicting, but most importantly, HAVE FUN.
    Over to you 

     

    Do I post my predictions now ? Or will you make another thread just for them ?

    Try posting your predictions now if you could



     

    Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

    Conegamer on 07 January 2011
    Immortal said:

    By the way, do you mind if I give you a suggestion?

    For the game sales section, it's far too easy. There will obviously be at least 5 games in each category. For the 5m and 3m games, I can just say obvious ones like Wii Sports (if you say non-bundled and released in 2011, there's still dozens of obvious ones) and for the flops, I can just name random niche games no one knows about. For the last category, it's too vague -- you can't define expectations.

    A better system would be asking about the sales of five random games (high profile would work best obviously) throughout the course of the year like a month before they release and ask the contenders to give weekly estimates.

    I like the idea. I like the idea...

    But what games would we choose for such an event? 

     

    Actually, I think maybe I could do a thing where you have to predict the sales for 5 different games for each month if you so choose, and then whoever gets closest gets a point. Yes, that would work...

     

    As for games, how about:

    Wii Sports Resort

    Kinect Adventures

    Epic Mickey

    Little Big Planet 2

    Gears of War 3

    Mario Kart 3DS

    Conduit 2

     

    And then maybe something a bit older, like:

    Super Smash Bros. BRAWL

    Fallout: New Vegas

    Mario Kart Wii

    Oblivion

    GTA: San Andreas/IV

     

    Any other ones you'd like to see? Do you like this idea?

     

    ( I suppose that different games could be voted upon for different months, to keep things exciting!)



     

    Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

    Conegamer on 07 January 2011
    Immortal said:

    I'll edit later then, :D.

    -insert correct predictions here-

    Only just noticed this

    Well, you'll have to copy my predictions then



     

    Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

    Conegamer on 07 January 2011

    I've updated the OP with everyone who's taking part, as well as the new 2nd part (thanks to Immortal for that!)

    The games of January are:

    1. Wii Sports Resort (3,200,000)

    2. Kinect Adventures (1,200,000)

    3. Little Big Planet 2 (480,000)

    4. Monster Hunter Portable 3rd (200,000)

    5. The Last Story (80,000)

    (note: This week's numbers count in these predictions, just so you know. If you want the rules, look at the OP!)



     

    Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.