We all know Wii kicks arse everywhere in the holidays, and up until this year it pretty much kicked arse everywhere at all times of the year. But in 2010 in the America's something changed. MS bought a redesigned 360 onto the market, and Kinect. And from the date of 360s launch to 25 December 2010 Wii has only outsold 360 by a little over 300K, which means 360 had actually slightly outsold Wii in Americas from 360s launch up to 18 December. What we also saw was Wii sales see a significant decline in sales outside the holiday months at the same time as the 360 rise.
360 vs Wii June to 25 Dec 2010
| Console | X360 |
|
America
|
6,135,811
|
| Console | Wii |
|
America
|
6,464,802
|
Could this mean a long term change in the sales dynamics in the Americas, where 360 rules for 9-10 months of the year and Wii rules for 2-3 months of the year? If so, and if 360 builds enough of a lead through that 9-10 month reign, it's feasible that despite Wii'd dominance of holiday sales 360 will sell more in the Americas in calendar year 2011 than Wii.
It's also possible that 360s 2H 2010 was a one time phenomenon, and that sales the like of June to (pre-black Friday) November 2010 won't repeat (well they are guaranteed not to repeat to the same extent for obvious reasons). Meaning that Wii vs 360 in Americas through most of 2011 will see-saw on which console sells the most in any given week. And While 360 might have a lead in YTD sales up to Black Friday 2011 it won't be substantial.
Who knows what the Kinect sales pattern will be like. Could it see particularly huge boosts during the holidays, but sell at a fairly modest rate during most of the year?
What effect price cuts? A $50 Wii price cut could have sales sky-rocketing. A cut to the 360 could boost sales massively. Both of them cutting could mean a toughly equal boost. What would a PS3 price cut do? Would it influence sales of either of the other 2 consoles, or would any sales boost it gains come from people who weren't likely to buy Wii or 360 anyway? All 3 systems are due a price cut some time in 2011.
I think 2011 could be an interesting year in the Americas. I think the sales patterns in EMEAA and Japan will more or less remain the same with Wii >PS3>360 being the norm for most weeks of the year. Though within EMEAA the really interesting race is 360 vs Wii in the UK, where it appears 360 is more likely outsell Wii in 2011 than it is in the Americas.
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