Soriku said: rukusa said: Sounds possible. Devil may cry 4 & Haze may push something, same if UT3 arrives in Europe. I would say 10 million is more likely. Haze is just another shooter, DMC4 will help but is only getting released in Japan this year (IIRC. Or is it delayed?) but it sure won't push 4 mil+ consoles.

Haze is not 'just some other shooter'... It's being made by Free Radical!

So let me see if I get this right... Sony sold 0.71M in Q1 2007 and 1.31M in Q2 2007, this is 2.02M units sold to retail in 2 quarters. There is no data about their Q3 yet (should be out in Jan) but if we are to believe their press releases they tripled their PS3 sales with the price cut so that would be 2x1.31M=2.62M in Q2 not including the Christmas boost. Let's even give them a 2x multiplier for Q3 based on the Christmas boost and make Q3 2x2.62M=5.12M.

So total for Q1, Q2 and Q3 is 7.13M They will need to sell 11M-7.13M=3.87M in Q4 (Jan-Mar) and that is not going to happen.

So, unless their Q3 numbers are over 7M they will not make their 11M goal. Not even both MGS4 and LBP in January will help them make it.

I expect an estimate adjustment with their Q3 earnings report. I can see them lowering it from 11M to about 9M. Investors will not be pissed if they lower it by 2M with Q3 report but if they wait till the end of FY then investors will go nuts.

 

PS: I believe they actually have very good chances to make the 9M unit sales for FY 2007

 

StarcraftManiac said: Soriku said: rukusa said: Sounds possible. Devil may cry 4 & Haze may push something, same if UT3 arrives in Europe. I would say 10 million is more likely. Haze is just another shooter, DMC4 will help but is only getting released in Japan this year (IIRC. Or is it delayed?) but it sure won't push 4 mil+ consoles. Haze is not 'just some other shooter'... It's being made by Free Radical!

Agree, Haze will most likely be good. Free Radical is a good company and they already proved they can make good shooters.

Also, DMC4 is coming out in the USA in February. Not sure about EU though.

 PS: I'm getting both ;)

@ krik )

gamefaqs says february for europe aswell , but 1 or 2 weeks later

Hehe most of you people are deluded. You really do think these fanboy wars matter dont you?. Sonys official predictions are for shareholders consumption not fanboys. The predictions when made are best estimates at the time whether right or wrong, they're not made to confuse the fanboys. Absolutely hilarious stuff reading this thread.

Yeah, dishdash is right, they are made to confuse the shareholders, because I am sure a lot of shareholders on the border of pulling out would take the leap if they just gave it to them straight.  With all the double meanings and generalizations no matter what happens Sony can find a way to put a spin on things so they don't look completely wrong when their estimates miss the mark by a mile.

Yeah, we all know it's not for us, it's for the shareholders, if you actually read the thread we discuss that alot. Mostly how it's just a means of trying to prevent shareholders from bailing because they are doing so poorly (by comparison to what they said they would do). There is no realistic way they can meet these expectations unless they do something that is inherently dishonest (though not illegal) in order to try and convince shareholders that they aren't getting their asses kicked.

WEWdeadeye said: Yeah, dishdash is right, they are made to confuse the shareholders, because I am sure a lot of shareholders on the border of pulling out would take the leap if they just gave it to them straight.  With all the double meanings and generalizations no matter what happens Sony can find a way to put a spin on things so they don't look completely wrong when their estimates miss the mark by a mile.

They are not made to confuse shareholders. They're honest predictions at the time. Chubachi has already said they're likely to fall short on the predictions and he's higher up the Sony food chain than Hirai. We'l have to wait for 'official' word before we know more. There's no foul play no matter how much people wish it so. The main thing shareholders care about is the bottom line. And Sony are expected to exceed there prediction of 5% operating income.

yeah, and I'm confident that Microsoft will sell 11,000,000 in Japan by the end of the year. :/

dishdash said: WEWdeadeye said: Yeah, dishdash is right, they are made to confuse the shareholders, because I am sure a lot of shareholders on the border of pulling out would take the leap if they just gave it to them straight.  With all the double meanings and generalizations no matter what happens Sony can find a way to put a spin on things so they don't look completely wrong when their estimates miss the mark by a mile. They are not made to confuse shareholders. They're honest predictions at the time. Chubachi has already said they're likely to fall short on the predictions and he's higher up the Sony food chain than Hirai. We'l have to wait for 'official' word before we know more. There's no foul play no matter how much people wish it so. The main thing shareholders care about is the bottom line. And Sony are expected to exceed there prediction of 5% operating income.

 

You can think what you want, but when the playstaion division is doing as poorly as it has been, a company is going to try and twist the truth any way it can, like sony has been doing.  There is nothing "honest" about their predictions and or statistics, because they are all intended to spin the truth in a positive way for shareholders, who are probably seriously considering if its worthwhile to risk staying in and hope things turn around. The "truth" right now is that Sony and the PS3 are bleeding major money, which isn't good for shareholders.