Final-Fan said:
No Lynch Linkz lynch FF lynch (why do you even have to ask)
Yes I think voting for you is more likely to result in "I am not lynched" because I think I can more likely get someone to vote you than vote No Lynch, and all I need is one and then at worst we're tied 2 to 2 and noname has said ties result in No Lynch when we hit a deadline. At the same time, however, I am less and less hopeful that a No Lynch (however accomplished) will actually accomplish anything.
I was referring with the 50% thing to this: if you thought the odds of getting him lynched were lower than the odds you would get with trying to lynch me and then either getting lucky or trying to talk your way out of a lynch tomorrow, then it would make sense for you to do that.
But I just threw out the "Plan B" possibility that you had some kind of Plan A that thiswas your backup plan for. It's not really relevant anyway.
Honestly the only reason I'm voting you anymore is because the lynch options are so bad that you seem least UNLIKELY to be mafia. nen is doing a pretty good acting job if he's mafia. (But @ what you said, if he is then he would not stop pushing the townie act no matter how "unnecessary" or gratuitous it was IMO, that's just how I think he'd roll.)
As horrible as a mafia mason would be, radish is starting to look bad to me. I mean he's done nothing but coast ever since TOS cleared him, we've all seen it. But would noname really do something that terrifyingly stupid? Considering the lack of cop I am willing to bet the gamehe wouldn't. But I have some small doubt, which is eating me alive because of the fact that I would vote radish in a hot second if I wasn't sure he was a mason.
Dammit. Now I want to believe you. And that means I suspect nen.
But all those clues you found ... I'm having a hard time seeing nen pull that off.
Dammit.
Did TOS explicitly name radish as a mason?
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I should've asked you to rank radish lynch or nen lynch instead of yourself, but what I was really getting at was your preference between no lynch and lynching me. You see if you really felt that way you could vote No Lynch and if both nen and radish voted for me then I'd be forced to switch from voting you to voting No Lynch as well. It'd require clarification from @noname, but I assume that tie would result in no lynch occurring after all.
For the 50% thing, I see your point but I've already put the likelyness of me winning if I was mafia and pushed for a mislynch of you at a mere 25%. At the very least I think my odds if I was mafia, would be 33% if a night kill reduced the town to yourself, myself, and either nen or radish. However, I said this with j0 and I'm only saying it again as a warning for future rounds as to how unpredictable I might really be, if everything else played out the same and I replaced the last mafia then I would've killed you last night. I probably would've pushed for different night kills along the way, but that changes things far too much to even discuss. If you are really a townie you have no reason to believe it until after I flip, and if you're scum then you know it's true but can't admit it until after I flip either. I just wanted to put it out there now instead of post-game.
If nen is really mafia and not you, then he's doing an incredibly great job. It's possible he's going to continue putting up the townie act until radish finally votes, but I just don't see radish needing much convincing to vote for one of us. Of course now that you've unvoted me, mafia-nen can't simply follow radish's vote for an assured win so we'll have to see what happens. Still I look at last night and wonder why mafia-nen would choose a no kill, and then thought "that no lynch was the only option." Now I wish I had waited to see what nen and radish wanted to do for the day before I stated my plan, because that could've been a fake thought. Occam's Razor comes into play and rather than think the extremely complicated explanation to be true, I find the doc claim to be far more likely.
I completely agree with you on radish. Until he was confirmed mason by Truck I was ready to push for his lynch based on his swift defense of MG and backing up MG's vote on scottie. Just about every single post of his I find very shady. Even http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3891927, which was finally a nice change of pace from the usual minimal content posts, feels riddled with things I could pick apart if he were a possible suspect. Yet as with nen, I can't think of any possible reason for radish to choose not to kill last night.
Which brings me back to you. You're doing quite an impressive job at planting the seed of doubt that maybe you really are a townie and I need to consider my suspicions of the others better, but I don't buy it.
Just as a note, I think a mafia mason fits fine in certain set-ups. However, in this one without a cop it'd just make the scumteam horribly overpowered. First it allows one of them to be "confirmed" townie with the only way to test that being a lynch, and it seems crazy to suggest lynching a "confirmed" townie so the odds are extremely slim that such a test would occur. Second, I've never been a mason but chances are they discuss whether or not they have additional powers on top of the obvious mason role. Knowing Truck, IMU/dtewi/Kantor, and Sol/nord were really just vanilla and furthermore could be influenced on the mason board means there's no reason to kill them off. It'd essentially put the start at 12 townies to 5 scum.