I'd be happy if I could somehow help too.

Shit. You are completely right.

And the black market wouldn't allow us neither to have an estimate of hw and sf importation.

@TheSource

Some data about broadband internet penetration in Brazil to help your further analysis

26,1 million of droadband connections.

12,2 million are ordinary (backhaul) broadband connections

10,4 million are connections from 3G cellphones

3,5  million are from 3G modems.

Source (text in brazilian portuguese)

And about the Wii, a I think most of the consoles aren't connected to internet because they are softmoded, it's easy to find a "Wii boudle" where the console comes already softmoded and with HD filled with games to play (you have just to plug the HD and play). So a lot of people don't connect the Wii to avoid automatic updates from Nintendo that will override their softmod.

I think the information is great. Although, here in Mexico, I think, most of the Wiis aren't connected to the internet. And here the XBOX brand is huge... So, I would love to see some Microsoft figures =)

yep, that's the problem with our country sales...=/

Good read Source, but as others are saying, the problem is that you are only counting legit Wii's that way. I'm sure the market is much bigger in Latin America than in Canada, perhaps not in SW but surely in HW.

SW ratio to HW would be atrocious here because the vast majority of Wii and 360 HW are modded. Also you need to take into account that there's a big chunk of the sales coming from online independet sellers like mercadolibre.com (kind of like e-bay) and from small street stores that aren't official distributors of Nintendo products, hence are importing or smuggling the consoles.

It's a very difficult market to track, but your estimates are good, so let's see what we can find out about Latin America.

Awesome list. Prety much this.

You may also consider these.

 La14 - Deparment store - http://www.la14.com/tiendala14/dept.asp?CatalogName=base_catalog&CategoryID=8301&RootCategory=83&menu=6  I reckon they have stores in big cities, but they are not in Bogotá. Unfortunately I couldn't get the number of stores they have.

 FotoJapón - It used to be a place to print pictures, now its mainly an electronic store. http://www.fotojapon.com/entretenimiento.html   They have about 180 stores (60 in Bogotá)  But as i have stated before, most of them probably will only be photography laboratories.

Prodiscos/Entertainment Store(Former TowerRecords) -Even though they are mainly a music store, some of them do sell videogames. http://www.prodiscos.com.co/videojuegos-t5/  28 stores (14 in Bogotá)

Also, acording to the twitter account of Nintendo Colombia http://twitter.com/Nintendo_Col, you can also buy their stuff in the following supermarkets: Colsubsidio, Cafam (now managed by Almacenes Exito), Flamingo, and Olimpica. I don't know Flamingo as there is none in Bogotá, but the other three are mainly grocery stores, I just name them as they were also included in the twitter account.

Actually, if the Nintendo Channel figures are only for "legit Wiis" in Latin America its probably better - we don't really want to track pirated software to make the market that sends money to the publishers look bigger than it is. In terms of the legitimate console and software market, I think the Nintendo Channel represents a Canada like x6 or less sample.

Nintendo had shipped 35.9m Wiis through September 2010.

NPD had 30.3m of them in the USA

I figure there were 2.7m of them in Canada based on 2009 figures.

If every Wii Nintendo had shipped was sold through, there would be 2.9m Wiis in Latin America, which means the Nintendo Channel is at most 1/7 of the users in the market. I really don't think the sample is that small though given the lower DSL / Cable Model rates compared to the USA & Canada. So from that we can play around with the numbers:

2.9m Maximum > Users > 410,000 Latin America Wii Sample (I'm fudging this as I don't have the #s for Sept in LA)

Canada Nintendo Channel to Canadian Wii Users = x6, at that rate Latin America = 2.46m

33m 2.5m = 35.5m?  That seems too high still, as Nintendo would likely leave more Wiis than that in stock for the upcoming holiday season, and since internet connectivity is lower than in Canada, particularly away from Mexico's northern states and urban centers where industrialization has made the country rather wealthy.

If we do x4, in lieu of Latin America seeing at least 4x the broadband internet users of Canada, despite lower penetration into the population, you get 33m 1.64m. For the legitimate market, that seems about right. I wouldn't doubt that there are a million or two million more Wiis that are pirated additionally, which would make the sample for Nintendo Channel similar to the USA / Canada for overall Wiis, but larger for non-pirated systems, since pirates will avoid Nintendo's mod-checks. Thats really not bad at all. If there are 800,000 Wiis in Mexico, sold in the Mexican market, and not pirated, the legitimate market is on par with a place like Scandanavia.

At 800,000 for Mexico and you'd probably split it up as:

2006 - 20,000

2007 - 120,000

2008 - 215,000

2009 - 250,000 (i figure the price cut helped more here)

2010 - 195,000

Roughly speaking, the figures for Wii in Mexico / Brazil could be on par with X360 in Japan - not too small. I figure the Brazillian market is probably similar. Maybe a bit bigger or small than Mexico, but with those two splitting the overwhelming majority of Wiis sold in Latin America that aren't pirated or imported.

http://www.reportbuyer.com/press/mexico-top-priority-for-nintendo-as-wii-sees-strong-sales-says-new-report/

Actually, that claims Mexico bought 77,000 legit Wiis in 2006, and about 200,000 in 2007.

77,000 would be 7% of USA sales in 2006 for Wii

200,000 would be 3% of USA sales in 2007 for Wii

With similar trends to the USA, you'd figure 250,000 - 300,000 in 2008, and 225,000 - 285,000 in 2009, and 175,000 - 240,000 in 2010.

77 200 275 255 208   --> 1.01m in Mexico?

50 150 195 180 160 for Brazil maybe? --> 0.73m in Brazil?

Hello. I see we're making some progress with the numbers. I hope in the end we get to somewhat precise results. :D I'm from Costa Rica and I might be willing to help. (Just might... lmao jk)

You might be making a big mistake, even if the figures for the Nintendo Channel are only for "legit Wiis" (I will check with a couple of friends this weekend), not all the legits Wiis were purchased in the official Wii market, I have a Wii without any homebrew software and I report to the Nintendo Channel, but I didn't bought my console in an official store in Colombia, I always bought them in USA and import them to the country (not only mine but also 2 of another friends) so my Wii its from the gray market.