Never before had I seen such widespread support for a lynch train.

My votes were as follows:

theprof00: I was trying to show him how empty and foolish his logic was. Call it a "revenge vote" if you will, but it wasn't.

radishhead: An enormous amount of support for his lynching. He seemed to have done something or other wrong, and he had some six votes on him, which is more than any possible number of Mafia. I didn't really see anything wrong here, but it was a placeholder.

Homer_Simpson: The most broken and ridiculous reasoning I have ever seen, and false claims regarding my actions.

The reason I haven't been cautious/conservative with my voting this round is that nobody has.

radishhead is once again demonstrating total lack of remorse for FUCKING LYING and I want to lynch him so bad.  I want to lynch him until he stops lying. 

But on the other hand, Stefl is correct -- I don't have any problem at all with lynching Homer, and he's more likely to be scum than radish IMO; even though, in terms of "how much I want dead", radish probably has the lead. 

But fine. 
Unvote radishhead
Vote Homer_Simpson

And if we have a vig, unless you have a strong suspect please kill radish because he might VERY WELL be scum and he deserves to die regardless. 

the only justification you give for voting for me here is that you have no problem lynching me and you think I am scum, how is that better reasoning that mine for voting Kantor? at least I actually found posts and actions of his that were suspect to justify my vote

But the final day lynch is WAY better than the day one lynch.  Shifting the lynches to later in the game means there will be more information available generally.  However in this case I'm fine with lynching today because I feel there's enough out there to justify making a decision today. 

I’m sure you are capable of getting to where my scenario began with 2 more townies than mafia.  Since you think it doesn’t exist here are a few.  Each day the town lynches one of its own and each night the mafia takes out a second townie until it’s two more.  If by the numbers you need something odd you have the doctor make one save during any of the nights.  If you don’t want it to be by the doctor and there is a SK you could have the SK take out an odd or even number whichever would work before he is taken out by the town or the mafia.  

Does that much make sense to you?

Your next point: about it not gaining extra times to lynch.  The whole point I’m making is that if we were to take a scenario where that one vote lead to us loosing and change that one vote and we don’t lose, we get more days to lynch.  Yes you could say it about any lynch but this was all from him saying a random lynch day one doesn’t hurt by wcs and not taking into account any other scenario. Where the day one lynch could be the difference between winning and losing.

I can think of plenty of ways in which it'd end up with two more townies than mafia. I meant any of those ways which result in such a scenario does not change the fact that you're neither gaining a day nor gaining additional opportunities to lynch mafia. The only real worry of a day one random mislynch is hanging the cop or doctor, but we're not actually playing randomly so the odds of one of them being lynched is far less likely than 1 in 17.

When I was bringing up the doctor and the cop I wasn’t saying they could hurt the town I was just saying you could run probabilities with random votes and in some of them the doctor would save someone and sometimes the cop would investigate scum.   The cop having a better random chance of success since there would be several mafia but only one target the doctor could save.  I’m not totally sure how the cop works with the investigation but I know it doesn’t hurt the town.

I've only played one game myself, but a cop will usually remain silent if investigations show pro-town. They aren't going to out and out defend that player if they become the target, but they'll try to turn the tide towards someone else. If they find scum they might come out and get that person hung and hopefully the doctor saves them that night, or if there's no doctor they might just push a thorough investigation without claiming to see them lynched anyhow. 

If you add in a doctor and cop to the randomness of lynching and possible saves from night kills then it actually leans more in favor of a day one lynch than no lynch. As I said above in reality it's less likely to mislynch the cop or doctor day one than it is to mislynch a vanilla townie or scum. Given that, a mislynch day one will reduce the amount of suspects the cop would choose to investigate, improving odds of finding scum, and reduce the number of possible townies the doctor would choose to protect, increasing odds of an actual save.

My problem has only been that he was using only a few stats to urge people to make decisions when there are many other possibilities.  Who makes decisions based only on wcs?  People make decision based on how likely something is going to happen not what the worst thing that could happen is.

The reason worst case scenario is used is because any other scenario is clearly better for town already, which means the odds of winning are better than wcs. You asked for a best case scenario in one of your posts. That'd be lynching scum every single lynch, and even better if we have a vigilante they would kill scum each night as well. In that case it wouldn't matter either if we lynched day one or not, but the lynch would end things sooner.

End game is not the same as the start of the game where the possibilities are much smaller so it’s very easy to calculate things.  At the beginning of the game everything that could happen can happen once a day one lynch happens it eliminates half of what could possibly happen.  If someone actually ran a model of random voting out and could say with a random vote on day one there is a 35% chance the town wins and if there isn’t a lynch it has 25% that would mean something if the % were that close it would still have some debate but at least then there would be useful numbers to go on.  All he was saying is that if the town totally sucks we’ll die day 5 random vote or not.  What happens if the town doesn’t totally suck?

Yes this game is about what people say and do so no model can cover that so why even show the useless part of that one.    The fact he was trying so hard to make people go along saying that the death doesn’t matter day 1 felt rather scummy to me since in a random vote the odds are with the scum.  He was only giving part of the information now it could be ignorance over malice but when he wasn’t listening to other possibilities it made me put him in the malice camp instead of ignorance.  Since as you said there is no point to going through posabilitios and stats why defend partial stats?

The point of the partial stats is that even if everything goes horribly wrong, we wouldn't be making it worse with a day one mislynch instead of a no lynch. If things don't go horribly wrong, we're on the right track and a day one mislynch isn't going to be the reason if things don't work out.

That's not what wonk is doing. Wonk thinks that if we no lynch today, then we get an extra lynch at the end. What he doesn't understand is that there is only ONE scenario in which a day one mislynch with this composition would make us lose a day. That situation is one in which the SK kills townies three nights in a row, the mafia kills us two nights in a row and the SK on the third night, and the doctor and cop are ineffectual. IF ANYTHING other than that scenario happens, we do not lose a day for lynching AND we get a bonus lynch on the first day.

That is why it is a free lynch.

However, if you believe like Vette does, that the situation described is possible and not worth the risk, then we must no lynch (unless we have a really solid lead).

Actually, radish was at L3 when Kantor voted for him :/

A vote is completely different. A vote can lead to death by lynching. As we can see before us, a bandwagon isn't actually that difficult to form. Now, as a townie, I don't mind dying for a good cause, but being lynched on Day One for no concrete or sensible reason isn't one of them.

Alright...I've decided against 2 more hugeass analysis posts....

There are about 7 townies analysing the situation this round...

Now we have suspicon flying on about 7-8 players and barely any evidence. Do you really think these 8 players will be held accountable on the debates of the first day later on? no half of these debates will be forgoten by most of the town. That is what I call waisting amo.

vote: Final-Fan

It's the only chance that I've got to prove that I'm pro-town.

I wasn't really absent, I followed the thread but have decided not to post because everything that has gotten my attention was already mentioned. I haven't voted for anyone so far because I did not want to make a wrong decision early in the game.

yomi

I honestly don't see much wrong with how I've played this game - if you think about it, the only reason that I've drawn any suspicion at all is because I stated that I don't do 1st day lynches, but later admitting that I do in the right circumstances. You're almost hiding behind the point that I'm playing badly, but it's only really the way that people have interpreted the things that I've said that have turned the situation around.

My votes were as follows:

theprof00: I was trying to show him how empty and foolish his logic was. Call it a "revenge vote" if you will, but it wasn't.

radishhead: An enormous amount of support for his lynching. He seemed to have done something or other wrong, and he had some six votes on him, which is more than any possible number of Mafia. I didn't really see anything wrong here, but it was a placeholder.

...

The reason I haven't been cautious/conservative with my voting this round is that nobody has.

Like I already said I don't really see Radish as Mafia, thats how it is. It would be much easier for me to vote for Homer, although right he also is 'just' a distraction I feel more comfortable lynching him.

radishhead is once again demonstrating total lack of remorse for FUCKING LYING and I want to lynch him so bad.  I want to lynch him until he stops lying. 

But on the other hand, Stefl is correct -- I don't have any problem at all with lynching Homer, and he's more likely to be scum than radish IMO; even though, in terms of "how much I want dead", radish probably has the lead. 

But fine. 
Unvote radishhead
Vote Homer_Simpson

I don't think it's realistic to expect a lynch of Kantor today...